Late DraftKings NBA picks February 4: Build around Russ or Kemba?

We still have six NBA games on Super Bowl Sunday. Unfortunately, they are all in the afternoon. That means our tournaments start earlier, and we have no suitable sports alternative for the NFL pageantry that is looking more and more like the WWE. We will still make the best of matinee basketball though!

DraftKings decided to split these up into two tournaments instead of just offering late swap. The 2pm and 3pm eastern tipoffs are in the late tournament, and we have to make some tough decisions here. How should we build?

Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Kemba Walker ($9,400): What, no Russ? I don’t think he is $2,600 better than Kemba. Westbrook has only played 56 minutes over two games with the Lakers because of blowouts. On top of that, Westbrook only has 49 points from the field over the last three games. He isn’t worth the premium when compared to Walker. Kemba is 14-25 from beyond the arc, and has 112.25 DraftKings points over the last two games. And now he gets Phoenix! Prepare for high ownership, but I don’t see how you fade Kemba today.

Devin Booker ($7,900): The Suns have been better with Booker at the point, but Booker’s personal stats have taken a hit. The assists are up, the points are down. Whether that pattern holds or not remains to be seen, but the potential against Charlotte is still good enough to consider a fade of Walker.

Honorable Mention:

Jordan Clarkson ($6,000): Clarkson took a back seat to Hart on Friday, and that may continue. The Lakers have stood by their belief that Clarkson is more valuable to them off the bench. I don’t necessarily subscribe to that, but hey. I’m here bitching about how teams run their personnel for a reason, right? Clarkson is still a decent play due to Hart’s inconsistency.

Dark Horses:

Josh Hart ($4,200): Hart ravaged Brooklyn for 40.5 DraftKings points boosted by a phenomenal 14 rebounds. From a point guard! Hart isn’t a distributor. That isn’t his game. But he is a very good athlete that can score and rebound. There is potential even against the Thunder.

Raymond Felton ($3,400): Felton has been a solid backup at both guard slots with Roberson out. If you subscribe to a third blowout of the Lakers by the Thunder, Felton makes a great value pick with ample upside. If not, he is a low upside bargain pick. Either way, you can do worse at this price.

My pick: Walker(PG), Booker(SG), Hart(UTIL)

Shooting Guards:

Best Bet:

Nicolas Batum ($6,900): Batum has 94 DraftKings points over the last two games. Batum was slow coming back from injury, but he has kickstarted the Hornets offense almost by himself. Charlotte has scored 256 points over the last two games thanks to Walker and Batum. Now they get Phoenix. There is serious blowout potential here, but I still expect the guards to be the reason why.

Honorable Mention:

Josh Jackson ($5,500): Jackson has flourished in his starting role. He is still playing less than 30 minutes a game, but it has been steady at 28 minutes. That is plenty enough time for Jackson to show why he is one of the highest owned players lately. There is a ton of upside here, especially at this price.

Dark Horses:

Jeremy Lamb ($4,100): Lamb’s upside is definitely capped by Walker and Batum, but he has shown the ability to put up a lot of points in a hurry off the bench. If this turns into a blowout, Lamb has a lot more potential. Both of these late games could end up blowouts, which means that those of us who run bench value may be the ones who win big. Or we will be at the bottom together. There is no in between.

Alex Abrines ($3,600): We knew this was coming sooner or later. The Thunder gave ample opportunity to Terrance Ferguson. Now they are worried about winning. Abrines has 39.25 DraftKings points over the last two games, which makes him a pretty strong value play today.

My pick: Batum(SF), Jackson(G)

Small Forwards:

Best Bet:

Paul George ($8,200): George was a huge disappointment against the Pelicans, going just 4-16 from the field. Hey, it happens. Even the best shooters have off days. This highlights the risk involved with using George, but the reward usually far outweighs the risk. Carroll struggled against the Lakers, but can they really handle George? I have my doubts.

Brandon Ingram ($6,600): If he plays, he’s in my lineup. Ingram came up two rebounds short of a triple-double with his groin supposedly tightening up in that game. This seems precautionary, and I hope it is because Ingram is about the only offense the Lakers have right now besides Randle.

Honorable Mention:

T.J. Warren ($6,400): You can’t put too much stock into Warren’s horrible game against Utah. The whole team besides Jackson was pretty awful. I’ll give Warren a pass and go him starting another streak of 30+ DraftKings points games. The streak ended at three on Friday, which is about the time of the lineup shakeup.

Dark Horse:

Jerami Grant ($4,300): Grant has been an animal lately, putting up 60.5 DraftKings points over his last two games. This is another area where ownership is going to be sky high, but you can’t fade this kind of value. Not on a short slate like this.

My pick: Grant(F)

Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Julius Randle ($6,500): Randle has three straight games with more than 30 DraftKings points. The Lakers have even upped his minutes a little bit, which increases his potential even more. Power forward is pretty lean on this two game slate. Randle is easily the best option, but you can play Warren here if you really want to.

Carmelo Anthony ($6,300): Melo still remains a tough sell for me considering that no better than the third option, sometimes the fourth, in this offense. Anthony has racked up 70.75 DraftKings points in two games against the Lakers so far this season. That said, this team is ever-evolving, and Anthony can’t abuse Randle like he did Kuzma and Nance.

Honorable Mention:

Frank Kaminsky ($5,000): Kaminsky is always a solid play when the minutes are certain. With Marvin Williams out again, Kaminksy remains a strong play because he is going to get at least 30 minutes here. The fact that he is playing the Suns is just a bonus.

Dark Horse:

Dragan Bender ($3,700): Bender did a number on the Jazz bench in the blowout Friday night. With Marquese Chriss out for violating team rules (read: arguing publicly with an assistant coach), Bender should very well draw the start due to his performance on Friday. However, keep checking just in case.

My pick: Randle(PF), Kaminsky(C)

Center:

Best Bet:

Dwight Howard ($9,300): This is not the ideal spot for Howard due to the Suns’ athleticism, but the Suns are a lot slower than they were even a month ago. Howard should dominate the boards against the Suns, but I don’t know what else he can get done, and I sure don’t know if he can hit enough to make him worth the price.

Honorable Mention:

Steven Adams ($7,200): The Lakers are still mostly a joke up front. Adams put up 67.5 DraftKings points in the prior two games against the Lakers in just 52 minutes of court time. You know, the Thunder have been letting opponents stay closer than they should lately. This is not a sure blowout. Stacking this game may be the key to money today.

Dark Horses:

Tyson Chandler ($4,500): Chandler is going to have a big problem with Dwight Howard, so I don’t know about his ability to hit value, even at this price. Chandler has never been much of a scorer, but he is still a rim protector. Good luck with that today.

Alex Len ($4,400): With Chriss out and Monroe gone, there is serious potential here if Len is able to play. His sore ankle has been bad enough to keep him out for the last week, but he hasn’t been ruled out yet. Keep an eye on this one. If Len plays, he could be a very nice value play.

My pick: N/A

Next: Early DraftKings NBA Picks

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