Welcome to the Sunday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Saturday Night’s NBA DFS slate was pretty fascinating to see unfold from a tournament perspective as we saw some extreme ownership on guys like Nikola Jokic (78%) and James Harden (44%) and the polar opposite with studs like Anthony Davis (4%) and Chris Paul (less than 1%) in the same match-up every rushed to roster The Beard in! Ultimately the best play on the slate was Andre Drummond who was able to destroy a short-handed Miami Heat squad for 23 points, 20 rebounds and 64 fantasy points! My biggest takeaway on this slate was how concentrated the ownership was on a few select high-end guys and how it left other stars like AD and CP3 virtually ignored!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and go position by position to help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Where to start on this slate:
Welcome to Super Bowl Sunday everyone where we have six NBA DFS games to focus on the Main Slate on both FanDuel and FantasyDraft as we get some all-day hoops to wet our appetite before the big game kicks off tonight!
The big injury news we have already for this slate is that once again Kyrie Irving, Shane Larkin and Marcus Morris will be out for the Boston Celtics which means another day of Terry Rozier ($14.5k) chalk! Rozier was the highest owned player in the last two slates he has played on and for those who have faded him (ahem – me both times) we have simply donated to the masses as Rozier went off for 57 and 48 fantasy points in those two games against the Knicks and Hawks.
In those two games, Rozier put up a 29% usage rate and 1.6 FP/M and even at 14.5K today on FantasyDraft he would still only need 43 points to return value which he has easily done in both prior games. Interestingly enough, in the last two games with Kyrie/Morris out it has only seemed to strengthen the Celtics defensive as they rank #1 in defensive rating over those last two games.
On the surface, I want to fade Rozier again if he is going to be the super chalk play in large field tournaments especially considering that a match-up with Portland is nowhere near as beneficial as they give up the 4th fewest fantasy points per game against opposing PG’s this season compared to the 23rd and 24th rankings of his previous opponents!
If you want exposure to this game it may be worth a pivot to someone like Jayson Tatum ($12.2K) or Al Horford ($14.6K) who are both sporting a 27% usage rate over these last two games while putting up 1.2 and 1.4 FP/M respectively and you can look to run it back with someone like Damian Lillard ($16K) if you want to game stack it. The issue here is you have two of the best defensive teams in the NBA squaring off in a pace down spot with one of the lowest totals on the board (201).
For me this one all comes down to ownership as if we continue to see inflated ownership for a guy like Rozier then I think you can make the case to jump off entirely as game log watchers will see the lofty totals against two of the worst defenses in the NBA versus PG’s and may want to chase it one more time. If that is the case then play the game theory fade but if the match-up scares people away to the point where the Celtics/Blazers becomes a contrarian stack then I think you can make the case to build around it!
NBA DFS – Is there a core build on this slate?
One of the tricky parts of this slate is we have four games which start at noon and two games which start at 2PM EST and 3PM EST so whether or not we have all the news pre-lock will make roster builds a bit of a challenge.
The Thunder-Lakers game is the only one without any Vegas information as we await word on the injury status of Brandon Ingram who is questionable to play with a groin injury. For the most part over the last month or two I have done my best to avoid the Lakers in DFS as their inconsistent rotations and deep bench make them a DFS stay away but with a match-up against the Thunder who remain without Andre Roberson, this is a spot I really want to attack!
The one player on the Lakers that would seem like the best value is Josh Hart ($8.2K) who took over the starting PG duties against Brooklyn and logged 34 minutes while racking up 15 points, 14 rebounds and over 40 fantasy points! What was interesting about this line-up build is that even though Hart was the PG in name it was really Brandon Ingram ($12.2K) who ran the point for the Lakers and racked up 16 points, 10 assists and 8 rebounds against the Nets.
I have tried to hammer this point home repeatedly since the Roberson injury as the season long numbers may lead you to see the Thunder being a top 5 defensive team and try to avoid them but the last two games as an example without Roberson have put the Thunder as the 22nd ranked defensive team, giving up 127 and 114 points in those games.
Game log watchers may notice that this game has already happened twice this season, both within the last month and even once without Andre Roberson on the court so there is some very comparative data to use! In both games the Thunder won easily, winning by 37 and 24 points so there is certainly some very real blowout risk here.
As good as a match-up as this is for Russell Westbrook ($21.7K) it is interesting to note that he has yet to reach 50 fantasy points in either game versus the Lakers this year. For that reason alone – I love him in tournaments today. The Thunder have the largest total (114) on the board and a 10 point spread which could lead people completely off Westbrook today and allow us to get the best player on the slate at low ownership like we saw yesterday with Anthony Davis!
NBA DFS – Picks and Pivots Worlds Colliding:
If you read this article each day you know I love very few things more than a good #RevengeNarrative and very few players more than Tim Hardaway Jr. so when the Knicks guard gets a revenge spot against his former Atlanta Hawks team it is time to abandon all bankroll management and back up the Brinks truck for todays slate – who needs groceries this month when I can put it all on THJ!
Tim Hardaway Jr. ($10.5K) has been underwhelming recently as he has failed to eclipse the 30 fantasy point mark in five of his last six games but today against his former Atlanta squad this appears to be the perfect time to jump on him and his Knicks teammates. The shot has simply not fallen for THJ recently as he has gone 2 for his last 24 shot attempts but as long as the volume and minutes are there, you can jump on the deflated price point and look to get a big time profit in tournaments!
The Hawks have surrendered 119 or more points to the opposition four of their last five games and interestingly enough we have seen the Knicks shorten their rotation a bit as all five starters played 30+ minutes in their last game against the Bucks. Over the last five games the Hawks are ranked dead last in defensive rating so if there was ever a spot to stack the Knicks this would be it!
Enes Kanter ($13.9K) has been on an absolute tear in recent games – putting up double-doubles in four straight games while racking up 39, 39, 41 and 56 fantasy points over that stretch. Meanwhile Kristaps Porzingis ($14.9K) has scuffled as he has only put up 40+ fantasy points one time in his last seven outings to taking the discount on Kanter may be the best way to attack the interior on the Knicks.
I hate to say it, but we can even consider Jarrett Jack ($9K) who after a rough stretch was asked to play 30+ minutes versus the Bucks and logged 33 fantasy points! The Hawks give up the 24th most fantasy points to opposing PG’s on the season and we have seen players like Terry Rozier (48) and Kemba Walker (44 and 48) put up huge games against this team in recent contests.
NBA DFS – Slate Overview and Sample Line-Up
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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FanDuel NBA DFS – Sample Line-Up:
PG: Russell Westbrook ($12,200)
PG: Terry Rozier ($7,500)
SG: Tim Hardaway Jr. ($6,200)
SG: Josh Hart ($4,500)
SF: Brandon Ingram ($6,600)
SF: Dillon Brooks ($4,300)
PF: Jayson Tatum ($6,400)
PF: Larry Nance Jr. ($5,300)
C: Enes Kanter ($7,000)
Slate Overview: At first glance I do not see any clear must have spot on this slate so rather than lock in a core, I want to gauge the buzz around the industry and look to pivot off the chalkier spots. The Thunder/Lakers game is one that I will keep my eyes on for news and hope people stay away from it as one of the later start times and it has significant blowout potential. Basically lock in Tim Hardaway Jr., wait for news and start enjoying your Super Bowl Sunday!
Best of luck in your NBA DFS contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!