DraftKings NBA picks February 5: Is Davis Worth The Premium?

PHOENIX, AZ – OCTOBER 20: Brook Lopez #11 of the Los Angeles Lakers reacts after hitting a three point shot against the Phoenix Suns during the second half of the NBA game at Talking Stick Resort Arena on October 20, 2017 in Phoenix, Arizona. The Lakers defeated the Suns 132-130. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA picks February 5: Is Davis Worth The Premium?

We have a seven game Monday which puts about half the league in action tonight. This slate lacks star power, but there are plenty of guys that aren’t usually at the top of the heap that could shine on a night like this. Where do we start? Do we use the one stud on the table? We will try a lineup with and a lineup without. There is a monstrous DraftKings tournament out there (142,687 entries), so no one should have really high ownership in that one!

Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Damian Lillard ($9,000): Lillard has hit value in four of the last six games. One of the ones that he missed was the blowout of the Bulls. The other was against Dallas. This is a nice matchup with the Pistons here. Ish isn’t going to contain Lillard, and Avery Bradley was shipped out. We all saw what Dragic did to the Pistons on Saturday. Lillard could top that!

Kemba Walker ($8,800): Walker struggled from the field last night en route to a disappointing performance. What happens when you fall of the bike? You get back on! Especially when tonight’s opponent is also in the bottom third of the league against the point. That said, Phoenix looked like a dream matchup too, and we know how that turned out.

Honorable Mention:

Goran Dragic ($7,300): Dragic is averaging 37.6 DraftKings points per game in three chances against Orlando. The Magic continue to be one of the worst defensive teams in the league on the perimeter. Now the bad news: Dragic has only hit value twice in the last ten games. The matchup is right, but is Dragic?

Jrue Holiday ($7,200): I don’t really like using anyone against Utah, but Holiday has not been under 30 DraftKings points in the last month. He was doing well before Boogie went down, and hasn’t missed a beat. I wouldn’t expect Holiday to put up one of his 50 DraftKings points games here, but he might just hit value, even against the Jazz.

Ricky Rubio ($6,500): Where did this come from? Rubio has 139.5 DraftKings points over the last three games. That is an average of almost 7.5x value in that span! Now, if Mitchell returns tonight I like Rubio a little less, but we can’t ignore his recent production and the matchup against the second worst team defending the point. Rubio is a very strong mid range pick, and has the potential to crack 40 for the fourth straight game.

Dark Horses:

De’Aaron Fox ($6,000): Fox has been very solid lately with the exception of and Orlando game in which he left after just 11 minutes. Fox has at least 25 DraftKings points in each of the last eight except for that one. The Bulls are awful defending the point, so there is a ton of potential here, maybe even higher than Rubio’s!

Darren Collison ($5,600): Collison has put up at least 25 DraftKings points in eight straight, and at least 20 in every game over the last month. Against a Washington team that is still without John Wall, Collison is a strong value pick once again.

Shelvin Mack ($3,500): I wont touch Elfrid Payton against Miami, but Mack is another story. Mack has at least 7x value in each of the last three games. The added bonus is that he wont have to deal with Dragic very much. With Payton overpriced and Satoransky very highly priced against Indiana for what you get from him, I much prefer Mack at this price. I even prefer to roll the dice on Tim Frazier over Satoransky tonight.

My pick: Rubio(PG), Holiday(SG), Mack(G), Frazier(UTIL); Dragic(PG), Mack(G)

WASHINGTON, DC – OCTOBER 18: Bradley Beal #3 of the Washington Wizards passes the ball against the Philadelphia 76ers at Capital One Arena on October 18, 2017 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /

Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

Bradley Beal ($8,900): Beal’s production has been rock solid with John Wall out. He has at least 44 DraftKings points in every game since. Indiana is a decent team defending the perimeter, but decent isn’t going to stop Beal here. I fully expect him to hit the mid-40’s again.

Donovan Mitchell ($7,100): Mitchell has a dream matchup if he is able to play. He missed Saturday’s game because of an illness, and is a total 50/50 shot right now. Hopefully we get news of his availability prior to the lineup lock, but in case we don’t, my backup plan is….

Honorable Mention:

Zach LaVine ($6,600): This is what we were waiting for! LaVine logged 30 minutes in a game over the weekend, and did not disappoint. He put up 41.75 DraftKings points and was just one rebound shy of a double-double. Yeah, Sacramento is good against guards. Yeah, LaVine isn’t going to play much, if any, over 30 minutes. I don’t care. LaVine is worth a slot in your lineups!

Jamal Murray ($6,400): Murray struggled a bit against the Warriors, playing only 28 minutes and taking only nine shots. I expect him to be back up to his normal usage against Charlotte, but this is another tough matchup for Murray. Do you defy that, or trust Murray’s hot January?

Josh Richardson ($6,300): Rock solid value. That’s all you get from Richardson. He will be between 25 and 35 DraftKings points. At this point, Richardson is a cash game staple, but this matchup against Orlando, who is the worst team in the league on the wing, is elite. Elite enough to consider using Richardson in GPP formats.

Dark Horses:

Bogdanovic ($4,800, $4,700): Which one? Doesn’t matter. Both Bojan and Bogdan are enjoying outstanding matchups tonight. Bojan against the short-handed Wizards on the wing and Bogdan against Chicago. When it comes down to it, I prefer Bojan because there isn’t a logjam at guard in Indiana, but you really can’t go wrong with either of them.

Mario Hezonja ($4,600): I only like this play if Hezonja starts for Aaron Gordon again. Otherwise, his playing time is too uncertain otherwise. Hezonja has at least 5x value in every game starting for Gordon. Roll him out there if Gordon sits. Since this game only tips a half hour after the early ones, we should have some clarity on who is starting before the lineups lock.

My pick: N/A; Beal(SG)

WASHINGTON, DC – JANUARY 10: Donovan Mitchell #45 of the Utah Jazz drives to the basket against Otto Porter Jr. #22 of the Washington Wizards in the second half at Capital One Arena on January 10, 2018 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /

Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Otto Porter ($7,100): I think we might finally be back to the point where we can trust Porter again. I’m not crazy about this price, but Porter does have at least 28 DraftKings points in five of the last six games. The last four have been over 30. Porter is taking on a larger role in the offense with Wall out, and the results have been promising.

Nicolas Batum ($6,700): I really don’t care who the opponent is at this point. Batum is one fire! Batum has hit more than 32 DraftKings points in four straight and five of six. He usually has a solid floor because Batum is more than just a scorer. I see his as a solid option in what should be an uptempo game with Denver.

Honorable Mention:

Will Barton ($6,200): Barton has been on a tear lately, averaging 38 DraftKings points per game over the last four games. Murray’s production is volatile, and Gary Harris has been overshadowed by Barton even though they are the same price. If you are using one, it should be Barton. You can even use him at SG if you want!

Danilo Gallinari ($6,100): Gallinari has 64.5 DraftKings points in his two games back after missing 38 of 40 games with a bum hip. With Griffin gone, Gallinari has done a great job of picking up the scoring slack, which gives him ample upside for GPP purposes. When healthy, Gallinari can be downright lethal from the perimeter.

Markieff Morris ($6,000): Morris has also helped pick up the slack from Wall’s injury Morris has at least 5x value in five straight games. He looks to be a safe pick against the Pacers, but he will also take a back seat to Porter when they are both on the floor. That likely makes Morris a better cash game play than in GPP formats.

Dark Horses:

Trey Lyles ($5,300): Lyles continues to be very good with Millsap out. His price and production have been very stable for much of the last month with the exception of games against Oklahoma City and Dallas. You may think that exiles Lyles to cash games, but that isn’t quite the truth. Lyles has topped 30 DraftKings points four times in the last six games. That gives him ample upside for GPP usage.

Jeremy Lamb ($4,200): Lamb put up 29.5 DraftKings points in 29 minutes on Denver in the first meeting. We saw Lamb have a big game against Phoenix yesterday, but he isn’t guaranteed value off the bench. You have to have a leap of faith to go with Lamb, but he is the major scorer off the Hornets bench, for whatever that is worth to you.

My pick: Barton(SF); Batum(SF), Gallinari(F)

DETROIT, MI – FEBRUARY 1: Blake Griffin #23 of the Detroit Pistons reacts to a late fourth quarter call during the game against the Memphis Grizzlies at Little Caesars Arena on February 1, 2018 in Detroit, Michigan. Detroit defeated Memphis 104-102. (Photo by Leon Halip/Getty Images) /

Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Blake Griffin ($8,500): Griffin found out that it ins’t all sunshine, rainbows, and undersized forwards in the east when he tangled with Miami on Friday. Now he get to journey back into the west (kind of….the game is in Detroit) against Portland. Griffin put up 44 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Portland. Expect him to be up to his old tricks again tonight.

Aaron Gordon ($7,800): If Gordon is in the lineup, I want him in mine. Hip flexor injuries can be tricky, but the Magic have no need to rush him back, so I am trusting that they wont roll Gordon out there unless he will be out there without limitations. If he’s out there, use him. Gordon racked up 44.75 DraftKings points in the first game against Miami.

Honorable Mention:

Tobias Harris ($6,600): Harris looked good in his first game as a Clipper, but it was also against the Bulls without Markkanen. Dallas is a different animal. There is cautious optimism here, but be warned that his stats may have been inflated by the Bulls’ incompetence.

Bobby Portis ($6,200): It’s Bobby Portis chalk night! Don’t worry, there is still room for us! Lauri Markkanen was unable to catch a flight to Sacramento because of the weather, so Portis is starting again. He is going to have his hands full with Randolph, but I still like Portis here.

Nikola Mirotic ($5,800): Mirotic put on a show in his first game in a Pelicans uniform, piling up 48 DraftKings points on the Timberwolves. Expect more of the same tonight. Minnesota is statistically better against power forwards than Utah! Don’t worry about the matchup. Mirotic is grossly underpriced tonight.

Dark Horses:

Zach Randolph ($5,700): Randolph destroyed the Bulls in the first game, racking up 48.75 DraftKings points in just 31 minutes. He sill see the same compliment of minutes that he did in that game since Skal Labissiere is still out. The Kings don’t have a choice but to roll with Randolph. That is great fortune for us in DFS circles.

Dirk Nowitzki ($4,900): Nowitzki may be older than dirt by NBA standards, but he is still a constant contributor. He has at least 5x vlaue in each of the last three games. If Harrison Barnes is out again tonight, Dirk could see a little more run than usual. His upside is practically zero, but something can be said for his consistency.

Montrezl Harrell ($4,300): Harrell’s move back to the bench hasn’t affected his production all that much. In fact, he has done better off the bench than he did in the last few games as a starter. There is still goof value here with Harrell on the second unit, but his upside is capped in a bench role.

My pick: Mirotic(PF), Randolph(F); Mirotic(PF)

DETROIT, MI – JANUARY 30: Andre Drummond #0 of the Detroit Pistons dunks while playing the Cleveland Cavaliers during the first half at Little Caesars Arena on January 30, 2018 in Detroit, Michigan. Detroit won the game 125-114. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images) /

Center:

Best Bets:

Anthony Davis ($11,200): Davis put up 102.25 DraftKings points in the first two meetings with Utah. That leaves Davis a touch overpriced here, but he has at least 56 DraftKings points in five straight games. Four of those were over 60. I see no reason to avoid Davis here. He has by far the best chance of hitting 60 of anyone on the slate.

Andre Drummond ($9,200): Drummond abused the Pistons without Whiteside in their lineup to the tune of 62 DraftKings points. Portland still doesn’t have much of an interior presence, try as they may with Ed Davis. They are in for one hell of a ride trying to contain Drummond tonight.

Honorable Mention:

Hassan Whiteside ($8,100): Whiteside is a strong play on paper if he can go tonight, but due to the strength of the upper tier and the fact that he is recovering from a stomach bug give me pause here. Whiteside is pretty inconsistent anyway. The only thing that he really has going for him is the fact that Vucevic is still out. That’s not enough for me to move down here. And you guys can play Russian Roulette with Howard and Jokic against each other if you want. I wont be joining you.

Willie Cauley-Stein ($6,900): Cauley-Stein still isn’t the most consistent guy out there, but he has put up some big numbers at times this year. Chicago’s best defensive spot is easily the center position so we can curb our enthusiasm here. That said, WCS is still a strong bet against the Bulls.

Jusuf Nurkic ($6,300): The Blazers are going to need all the size they have to deal with the behemoth that is Andre Drummond. The silver lining to this is that Nurkic is guaranteed to log enough minutes to make him worthy of rostering in DFS circles. On top of that, Drummond is a rim protector, but not much of a defender. There is quite a bit of potential here.

Dark Horses:

Kelly Olynyk ($5,200): Olynyk has been a beast with Whiteside out, so if he is still no over that bug, Olynyk is pretty much a must play at this price. Even if Whiteside is back, Olynyk is still a pretty strong value play with the way he has been rolling lately.

Robin Lopez ($4,600): Lopez put up 33 DraftKings points against the Clippers with Markkanen out on Friday. Expect him to have a larger role than normal in the offense once again. Lopez put up 28.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Kings. Expect him at least at that mark tonight, which makes him a very nice value play.

My pick: Davis(C); Nurkic(C), Olynyk(UTIL)

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