5 big questions surrounding the 2018 NBA Draft

We have questions about the NBA. Luckily, we also have answers. Some of them might be useful. A few might even turn out to be right. This is Five Big Questions and this week we touch on the 2018 NBA Draft.

If you are a team with a top-5 pick in need of a big man, who are you taking between DeAndre Ayton, Jaren Jackson Jr., Marvin Bagley and Mohamed Bamba?

Ben Ladner (@bladner_): I would take Bagley by a hair over Ayton. I just see a little bit more upside with Bagley, and I think his skill set will be slightly more valuable than Ayton’s in five years.

Brandon Jefferson (@Jefferson_Hoops): I would take Ayton out of this grouping. He’s a physical marvel and has shown the ability to dominate when he’s fully locked in. The other four players have more serious red flags (Bagley – rim protection, Jackson – foul trouble, Bamba – consistency) than Ayton’s at the moment. While he’s no Joel Embiid, the former Kansas product has showed there’s still value in having a post presence in today’s NBA —as long as said post presence can also stretch the floor and provide elite-level defense— and Ayton has shown he checks those boxes already.

Chris Stone (@cstonehoops): It’s possible to make a case for any of the above and this particular question has been causing me a lot of anxiety lately. For now, I’ll stick with Bagley. His ceiling outcome is the most enticing to me because of his athleticism-motor combination. If the skill level catches up, he’ll be elite. A special shout out is warranted for Jackson, though. Where Ayton, Bagley and Bamba all have at least one obvious area of concern to round out the unicorn archetype, Jackson has it all. He’s already a competent 3-point shooter and rim protector. There’s a chance he takes over this spot before June.

Sydney Robinson (@syd_rob25): It has to be Ayton. Bagley is really good but I have yet to buy into all his stock yet. That being said, I do not think Ayton has anything close to an unlimited ceiling. He definitely has plenty of room for improvement but I challenge his ability to develop to the level we would expect of a top-3 pick.

Philip Rossman-Reich (@philiprr_omd): Considering I cover a team with a likely top five pick (but also has 20 million centers) there is a lot to like in this center class. I would take DeAndre Ayton though out of this bunch. His footwork in the post and his athleticism are really impressive. And I think he can learn to play defense. The reports he is indifferent defensively are probably more born out of an amateur culture that just does not teach elite prospects to play defense. I see him make good rotations and play well on the ball. It just is not natural habit to him yet. I think he is as good a center prospect as we have seen come into the draft in some time. So I am all in on Ayton.

Trevor Magnotti (@illegalscreens): In a vacuum, Ayton is the pick. For most top-five teams you are in talent acquisition mode, and Ayton is the most talented player in college basketball this year. He has the potential to be a Boogie Cousins-esque offensive hub at the 5, and his athleticism and mobility on the defensive end gives him high defensive upside as well even if he doesn’t look like it right now. Each of the other bigs has too many flaws: Bamba’s offensive game is a mess, Bagley can’t defend on the perimeter or shoot, and Jaren Jackson, while polished, probably doesn’t have the same creation upside. Ayton is your best shot at a star of this group, with Jaren Jackson close behind as your best shot at nabbing at least a quality starter.

Daniel Lewis (@minutemandan): I’m going with Bagley. He’s a little bit younger, and has the offensive skills to produce immediately in the NBA. I don’t really care what your collegiate defensive numbers are, I’m more looking for skills that can translate to the NBA. Bagley has quick feet, and if a coach can convince him defensive stops will lead to easy matchups in transition, I could see him improving on the defensive end quickly. I think Bagley is the most fluid of any of these guys, and that lowers my concern level for an injury.

Which Bridges you got? Mikal or Miles?

Ladner: This might be tougher than the last one. I see a clearer floor with Mikal, who, at the very least, should be a useful 3-and-D guy that switches across three or four positions. It’s possible he lands with the right team and develops into a legitimate superstar, but maybe not likely. Miles probably won’t be as good defensively, but he offers a bit more versatility on the offensive end as a playmaking combo forward with ridiculous athleticism and he’s two years younger. This might be a cop-out, but I think it depends on the team that drafts them and how they fit into that specific team.

Jefferson: As the CEO/Founder of the #MilesBetter camp it would be against my modus operandi to not go with the Michigan State forward here. I’m in agreement with Ben about Mikal having a guaranteed floor. The Villanova guard is having a better year than I foresaw but I still think the upside favors Miles over Mikal for now. Miles has cemented his outside shooting ability from his freshman year in his second year in East Lansing and while his best fit long term is as a versatile power forward, he’s put in the work to make himself a passable small forward this season.

Stone: Give me Mikal. His plug-and-play ability as a 3-and-D wing should work well in the modern NBA. If he ever develops as a creator — a low probability outcome — he’ll be a legitimate star. Miles, meanwhile, is a combo forward without elite size and with questionable defense.

Robinson: Mikal without question. I saw him play last season and again this season and his confidence and development from one year to the next is unreal. He is not the rail he once was but he now has a way more developed game. His pull up has evolved and already has displayed NBA range. Defensively, Mikal has great lateral quickness, length, and the ability to stay in front of his defender. The perfect 2/3 hybrid the versatile NBA envies. Driving the ball remains a struggle but to succeed in the NBA one must be great at one thing. He has that. Not to mention he has that Villanova motor.

Rossman-Reich: I take Mikal. And it is mostly about fit. I cannot tell whether Miles Bridges is a big small forward or a small power forward. And I do not mean that in a good way like Draymond Green. I am not sure he has the positional versatility long-term for this league. That is probably going to come back and bite me. But Mikal Bridges works better as a 3-and-D player. I think his fit in the NBA is much clearer. Yeah, this will show up on Cold Takes Exposed pretty soon.

Magnotti: Put me in the Mikal camp as well. I am relatively down on Miles Bridges. He’s a great athlete, sure, but his consistency this year has been disappointing. I don’t think he has much creation upside at all, and his shooting, while visually promising, doesn’t seem to be consistent enough to comfortably project, so what does he do for you? I think for Mikal, role is much more easily identifiable. He’s going to spot up for threes and attack close-outs, and he might be the best perimeter defender in the class, while being strong enough to duck in and defend up a position only slightly less effectively than Miles can. Give me the Villanova Wildcat 10 out of 10 times.

Lewis: I’m on the Miles Bridges train, headed for Miles Island to form a welcoming committee with Brandon. Mikal has looked great, and I have them very close together in my draft rankings. They are both going to have different roles in the NBA, but I think Miles has a higher ceiling than Mikal does. Miles won’t be able to play against power forwards in the NBA, but I just have a feeling that he’ll be better.

Who do you see having a Donovan Mitchell-esque breakout season few expect next year?

Ladner: This also depends so much on where a player lands and how much opportunity and freedom he gets in his first season. I could see Collin Sexton landing on a team devoid of much talent and just balling out his first year. Because he’s injured right now, Michael Porter might be a candidate as well.

Jefferson: Well what better place to look for the next Donovan Mitchell than the conference that gave him to us last year. The Miami Hurricanes are loaded with backcourt talent, but one player has flashed above the rest in Coral Gables and that’s freshmen guard Lonnie Walker. At 6-foot-4 with a 6-foot-10 wingspan and top-end athleticism, Walker fits the mold of Mitchell physically and it doesn’t hurt that he’s a slasher that will burn you from deep when given the opportunity. Bruce Brown’s injury has called for Walker to step into a bigger role than most thought he would have as a freshmen, but it’s been smooth sailing for him as he comes off being honored as the ACC’s Freshman of the Week.

Stone: Walker is probably the prospect who most accurately fits the profile, but honestly, I’m not sure this draft has a player who will be taken in the late lottery who I’d expect to be a similar creator to Mitchell. On the bigs end of the spectrum, I think there’s a good chance Wendell Carter outperforms his draft slot. His ability to create offense from the post and at the elbow is intriguing enough.

Robinson: I will take a bit of a dark horse but I think Mikal Bridges. Draft boards have seen him climb quickly in a sneaky way similar to Mitchell last year. He is not the playmaker Mitchell is but I definitely think people are sleeping a bit too much on him.

Rossman-Reich: I am keeping an eye on the Miami duo — Lonnie Walker and Bruce Brown. The two are really talented wings who are a bit undersized. Like Donovan Mitchell, they are kind of tweeners and NBA teams are not really going to know what to do with them. Brown’s injury is going to lead to a lot of questions and may have him stay in school another year to build up his stock again. But these two players can play. That much is clear. They may not have surefire star written all over them, but neither did Mitchell.

Magnotti: To be the next Mitchell, you need to be living in a situation that’s detrimental to your skill set, but show potential to be at least a competent role player with flashes of high offensive upside. That’s Wendell Carter. Carter’s one of the smartest big men we’ve seen come out in the last few years, and while he’s undersized, his passing and shot-blocking skills are highly valuable. He also has displayed flashes of being a potentially brilliant face-up five and stretching the defense to the three-point line. However, he never gets to show this, or his shot-blocking, because Marvin Bagley and Marques Bolden are clogging the paint on a Duke team that can’t figure out how to use Carter as a stretch big to open the floor for Bagley. Carter’s probably got the best shot to end up in the late-lottery but be a top-5 player in this class.

Lewis: I’m going to go with Shake Milton. SMU had a nice season last year, with Semi Ojeleye and Sterling Brown helping the Mustangs qualify for the NCAA tournament, where they lost to USC (Trojans). This year, Brown and Ojeleye are in the NBA, and the Mustangs lost Ben Moore (graduation) and then Jarrey Foster got injured midseason, and will be out for the rest of the year. That leaves Milton to carry the load, and he’s still having a great season. He can score from the free throw line (5 attempts a game, 85 percent), from the perimeter (5.9 attempts per game, 43 percent), and can finish at the rim (56 percent last season). He’s also a solid defender, with great size and length. He’s going to make a NBA team very happy.

Your team needs a lead guard with Trae Young and Collin Sexton on the board. Who do you want them to take and why?

Ladner: Trae Young. His ceiling is 75-85 percent of what Stephen Curry is now, and that type of player is more valuable than a solid — or even above-average — two-way point guard.

Jefferson: Give me the guy who ESPN has given his own special graphic for. Sexton is going to make a bigger impact as a defender, but he really needs to be in a certain style of offense to get the most out of his talents. Young just needs a ball and a basket to make magic happen on the court, range be damned.

Stone: This is a pretty easy Young pick for me at this point. His 3-point shooting is potentially scheme-changing. Sexton just doesn’t have that skill even if his jumper is more reliable than expected. I’d listen to arguments about Sexton’s floor being higher than Young’s, but if I’m rebuilding a franchise, I’m swinging for the fences.

Robinson: Collin Sexton. Trae Young is still a bit of a wild card and we have not seen him thrive against tougher guards. Realistically, his floor could be a Shane Larkin. Sexton is physical and a player with an insane desperation to win (not to say Young doesn’t). I think his ceiling may be higher but his floor is also lower. Safer pick overall.

Rossman-Reich: I take Trae Young. I think when we discuss his flaws — his turnovers, finishing around the basket, defense — we are picking nits. The guy can flat out shoot and score. And is doing it at a high level against top competition. With a high usage rate at that. I think he will work a bit better in the NBA when he does not have to do everything and can work off the ball. NBA teams will use his space. And that is what things are all about these days. He can warp defenses with his shooting. That is really difficult to pass up.

Magnotti: The other guys here have hashed out my opinion pretty well. This argument is closer than the casual fan would probably think because Young’s margin for error due to his size and defense is razor-thin, and Sexton’s defensive potential is outstanding. Young’s ahead for now, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a team value Sexton more come June.

Lewis: Let’s face it, if you’re in the top 10 and you need a point guard, your team either really sucks or you’re hoping LeBron James returns. In that case, I think Sexton is the better prospect. While Young’s shooting is next level, he doesn’t offer the same two-way production as Sexton does. Sexton is a hardcore competitor, and is the guy I’d take in that situation where you need a leader now, not in a few years.

Out of sight out of mind, but are teams going to regret letting Michael Porter slip when June rolls around?

Ladner: Yes. Porter would absolutely be in the conversation for the #1 pick if he were healthy, and if he makes a full recovery, he’s as good a player as there is in this draft. He’s exactly the sort of supersized wing that NBA teams are willing to die for, and I think he’s proven himself worthy of pretty lofty expectations despite not playing this season.

Jefferson: Porter was easily the top player in this draft class until Marvin Bagley III re-classified and enrolled at Duke. Porter’s injury has allowed players like Ayton and Young to fill the spotlight void in his absence, but Porter is tailor made for today’s NBA. He stands at 6-foot-10 and can play on the perimeter while also defending a variety of players. There were questions about his shooting ability that will likely go unanswered in the lead up to the draft, but if healthy Porter is easily worth a top three selection in this class. If any team lets him get outside of the top five they’ll be very sorry that they did.

Stone: Maybe? The draft is already a bastion of uncertainty given the small number of data points we have for one-and-done prospects. With Porter, we have even less experience. Absent a surprise return, he’ll have played two minutes of regular season ball and a scrimmage against Kansas once the draft rolls around. Yes, he’s a three-level scorer and his size fits well in the modern NBA, but I’m not sure a small slip will be worth regretting.

Robinson: Yes. The game is so easy to him. Before the injury, it was Doncic first overall followed by MPJ. The rest of the field was not that close either. A back injury is legitimate cause for concern but he is just something special. That being said, teams have seen him play quite a bit and I would not be surprised if he starts climbing back to the top during draft workouts.

Rossman-Reich: Maybe. To me, the draft is all about risk. With a young player, how much risk are you willing to take? Are you going to overlook a player’s flaws to give him a chance to be the future of your team? That is where things are at with Michael Porter right now. He is a really talented player. His high school tape is amazing. A player does not just lose that. But back injuries are serious and scary. To have that at 19? Those things do not always go away. They tend to linger. I would want to have my t’s crossed and my i’s dotted on his medical history before I make that pick. In a draft loaded at the top, it is inevitable Porter slips.

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Magnotti: I’m going to say no, and that speaks to the volume of talent in the top-10 in this class. Porter is probably a top-3 player this year in terms of raw skill level, along with Doncic and Ayton, but his injury is a significant problem that he’s going to need the right landing spot to deal with. That, couple with the play of Young, Bagley, Sexton, and Jackson this year, makes Porter slipping very justifiable. We also have to remember that Porter has control over medical records – he may try to play teams in the 3-5 range to land in a more favorable situation, especially if the Cavs and a shot to play with LeBron are lurking at 6th or 7th. I don’t think you can blame teams for potentially letting Porter fall here – in the top 7, you really can’t go wrong as long as you get a good fit for your roster.

Lewis: Depends on if he can come back without any negative consequences from his back injury. How comfortable are you betting on a tall individual who just had back surgery that kept him out for a year? There’s serious bust risk with him. I’d stay away and live with the consequences.