NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Thursday February 8
Welcome to the Thursday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
To pretend Wednesday Night’s NBA DFS was about anything other than the Pelicans-Pacers rain out would be burying the lead so let’s simply start with the game that right or wrong, determined your cash position on this slate. I get the uproar and the frustration of DFS players who spend their time and hard-earned money playing a game they love, only to get burned by something as crazy as a roof leak that postpones a game. Personally, I do not think the sites owe us anything but I am sure most will do the some sort of “right thing” like a Free Roll of even in the case of Yahoo Fantasy, a full on refund.
My two cents – for as much as we call this a skill game, and to a large extent I believe that is true considering the amount of time and effort it truly takes to be good at DFS, there is still a large element of gambling (I know that is a dirty word in DFS) when it comes to this industry. The reality is, we are making our best educated guesses, trying to predict the unpredictable – factoring in player performance, match-ups etc but at the end of the day there are variable out of our control like injuries, weather, trades, coaching decisions etc that no amount of skill or research could avoid. I get the frustration, I really truly do, and I personally think installing a late swap feature like PlayDraft has (where you can only swap out injured/affected players) is the best path forward for the industry but on this night I am not going to join the angry mobs yelling for a refund – at the end of the day we are trying to predict an unpredictable game and good or bad you simply have to embrace the variance/risk that comes with this “skill game” we choose to play each and every night!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Where to start on this slate:
As we dive into a new NBA DFS slate tonight with six games to break down, we need to remember one critically important thing about today in the NBA as it is the Trade Deadline which means we could have MASSIVE changes to rosters around the league that impact tonight’s slate. The deadline is at 3PM EST so we SHOULD have time to react to the news as it relates to tonight’s slate but please keep this in mind as if you are not going to be able to track the news leading up to lock this would probably be a good night to take off because I expect there will be a number of trades that open things up and completely change our roster build.
In addition to the trade deadline this slate is LOADED with injury news and not just fringe guys – I am talking the slate’s biggest stars so buckle up and let’s dive in!
Russell Westbrook and Carmelo Anthony are both questionable to play tonight’s game against the Lakers and frankly it would not shock me if both players sat out considering they are coming off a huge win versus the Warriors and now get what on paper should be an easy match-up (although they did just lose to this team over the weekend when they were fully healthy).
I am going to approach this slate with the mindset that both players are out which means Paul George ($16.5K) becomes an auto-play in all formats tonight. If you take Westbrook, Melo and Andre Roberson off the court this season, George sees a massive 15% usage rate boost over 250 minutes of action and leads the team with 42.2% usage rate. The Thunder also happen to see the biggest pace boost of any team in action and will be in the fastest projected pace game on the slate – you simply do not get cute here, this becomes the first player into every line-up you build.
We saw that when Melo went out last game due to injury that it was Patrick Patterson ($7.2K) who drew the second half start and played 29 total minutes but it was Jerami Grant ($9.4K) who had the best fantasy day as he logged 35 minutes and put up 30 fantasy points on the back of 16 points, 4 rebounds, 2 assists and 3 blocked shots. Patterson may again draw the start but his is an extremely low usage player and does not have the block/steals upside that makes Grant so intriguing from a DFS perspective. On the season, Grant is putting up just under a FP/M of production with Westbrook/Melo/Roberson off the court and I would not hesitate to use him here tonight!
As if the Westbrook/Melo news was not enough we also have to deal with the fact that Kevin Durant (questionable) and Draymond Green (probable) have injury tags for tonight’s game against the Mavericks. The Warriors are always one of the easiest DFS teams for me to break down in “normal” games like this – if they are fully healthy I will fade but if any of the core four are out, then you simply fire up the remaining crew!
It sounds like Green is likely to play but it would not shock me to see KD sit which means you lock in Stephen Curry ($19.5K) and move on. With Durant off the court this season, Curry sees an 8% usage boost and leads the team with a 40% usage rate while putting up 1.7 FP/M – you play him everywhere, it is that simple.
You can always make the case for Klay Thompson as well as he is fairly priced around the industry and sees a solid 5.4% usage bump, coming in behind Curry with a 30% usage rate while putting up just over a FP/M of production.
It goes without saying but the two biggest studs on this slate being questionable for tonight is going to completely change how you play this slate – for my starting point today I am going to assume they are out and adjust to news rather than try to force them in later. If Westbrook/Melo and KD are all out – George and Curry are going to become THE chalk but this is a scenario where you simply eat it and move on – let other’s make the mistakes!
NBA DFS – New York, The Big Value:
Hello New York – if you think that Paul George/Stephen Curry are going to be chalky just wait until you see the Knicks ownership tonight! Part of me is hoping for some other crazy news and/or trades to take some of the focus off this spot but there are players on this Knicks squad that feel like unavoidable elite value!
In case you have been out of the loop the last 24-48 hours we already know that Kristaps Porzingis is out for the season and we got news yesterday that Enes Kanter would miss this game with an injury right on the heels of Willy Hernangomez being traded out of New York. So essentially the Knicks are going to be without their entire front-court tonight which means we have a crazy amount of minutes and usage up for grabs against the Raptors!
If we take KP, Kanter and Willy off the court this season it should not shock anyone that Michael Beasley ($13.2K) leads the Knicks in usage at 34% while putting up 1.3 FP/M and our boy – Tim Hardaway Jr. ($12.6K) sees a 5% usage boost.
We actually have a comparable game log to use as a reference point as KP and Kanter both missed the November 25th game against the Rockets which forced Beasley, THJ and Kyle O’Quinn ($8.6K) into the starting line-up.
In that game we saw this trio put up the following numbers:
- O’Quinn: 26 minutes and 50 fantasy points
- Beasley: 36 minutes and 39 fantasy points
- Hardaway Jr.: 38 minutes and 25 fantasy points.
The Knicks trio shot the ball 44 times which was over 51% of the total field goal attempts for the entire Knicks roster that day. On paper this is not the greatest spot against the Raptors but it is worth noting that the Raptors are playing at a top 10 pace over the last 15 games and this will actually be a pace up spot for New York. If you have been playing DFS for any amount of time you will likely know that fringe Knicks chalk (KOQ and THJ specifically) very rarely goes well but the upside here is evident in every metric to break down and the prices are so cheap across the industry that they become difficult fades for me tonight.
If you are going to load up on the Knicks here, there is absolutely merit in bringing it back with one of the Raptors stud guard like Kyle Lowry who has put up 48 and 45 fantasy points in each of his first two meetings with New York this season.
NBA DFS – Pivot Plays:
One of the things I love about DFS is how the narrative on players and the strategy from day-to-day can be so wildly different. Two days ago Josh Hart ($10.6K) was one of the highest owned players on the slate – talked about all over the industry as a player who is simply too cheap, producing at too high of a level and in too good of a match-up to pass on and for the third straight game he delivered. Literally nothing about Hart is different tonight but with SO many other “new spots” to target it will be interesting to me to see how popular Hart is around the industry as in DFS we tend to move on from the “new guy” with lightning speed – turning must plays one day into an afterthought the next – hell, sometimes it happens within the same day as we turn players from core plays to off our rosters entirely before lock even hits!
The issue with the Lakers all year from a DFS perspective has been that they are impossible to predict and it may seem crazy to say but right now Hart is maybe the most trustworthy player on this team. Hart has stepped into the starting line-up and done nothing but produce as he has played between 31 and 39 minutes in each of his last three games while putting up 36, 40 and 41 fantasy points in those three outings which includes a match-up (36 FP) against this very same OKC team!
We have been talking about this over and over again since Andre Roberson went out with his injury but you simply need to attack this Thunder defense on each and every slate. This game tonight should be a track meet as the Thunder and Lakers are both top 5 teams in pace over the last 5 games so building around the key players here tonight is a great strategy.
The issue with the Lakers outside of Hart and Brandon Ingram is that we have basically a 4-5 man rotation of guys who play 25 minutes a night so it becomes a dart throw finding the right guy! Tonight this looks to be an elite spot for a guy like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($9.4K) who has always thrived in fast pace games like this and if Westbrook/Melo are out, the Thunder are going to be playing guys like Raymond Felton which, well said nicely could result in a few turnovers. KCP was solid in this spot over the weekend, playing 29 minutes and putting up 25 fantasy points and I could see a very similar outing today as a solid cash game play with GPP upside.
Kyle Kuzma is probably nothing more than a GPP dart throw at this point which is crazy because this is a guy who was challenging for Rookie of the Year earlier in the season and now cannot seem to get off the Lakers bench. It is encouraging that Kuzma played 27 minutes last time out versus Phoenix (24 FP) but this is the same player who got only 15 minutes against OKC over the weekend so there is very real risk in playing him but we also have seen the upside as he put up 40 fantasy points in only 26 minutes against the Celtics just a few games ago!
NBA DFS – Slate Overview and Sample Line-Up
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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FanDuel NBA DFS – Sample Line-Up:
PG: Stephen Curry ($9,800)
PG: Damian Lillard ($9,200)
SG: Josh Hart ($6,300)
SG: Tim Hardaway Jr. ($6,000)
SF: Paul George ($8,600)
SF: Michael Beasley ($6,200)
PF: Jerami Grant ($5,200)
PF: Kyle Kuzma ($4,700)
C: Kyle O’ Quinn ($4,000)
Slate Overview: Obviously it is early – I am writing this at 5AM EST to be clear – but if we get news today that guys like Westbrook/Melo/KD are all out – we are going to have SO much value to pair with the underpriced Knicks that will make grabbing 2-3 studs an easy proposition in all formats. Remember to keep an eye on the Trade Deadline news and be ready to adjust accordingly and let’s hope that the NBA stadiums around the league have a tarp and some buckets handy in case we get a leaky roof!
Best of luck in your NBA DFS contests across FantasyDraft and FanDuel and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!