DraftKings NBA picks February 9: LeBron could be worth the price tonight.
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA picks February 9: LeBron could be worth the price tonight.
We have nine games tonight, making this the largest night of the week game wise. There are plenty of stars out there to choose from, and some value opened up by a flurry of trades at yesterday’s deadline. Let’s explore our options!
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The money line was a solid 266.75, which is about where it has been the last week with the exception of last night. My lineup with Jerami Grant, Mack, and Hardaway missed because only Grant broke 20 points. The other missed because O’Quinn and Grant weren’t the beasts they expected to be.
The winning lineup was actually down to 340 DraftKings points. He built around Kemba, Paul George, and Nurkic and hit great value from Valanciunas and D.J. Augustin.
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Point Guards:
Best Bets:
Chris Paul ($9,500): Most nights I wont consider Paul with Harden on the court. Tonight is an exception. The Nuggets are statistically the best team in the league defending the off guard. Denver proved it by holding Harden to 41.5 in the first meeting. Paul had 52.5. Paul is also riding a streak of three straight games over 44 DraftKings points. This would be one of the few nights to use Paul over Harden.
Jrue Holiday ($7,800): Kemba and Lillard have more potential, but also a lower floor relative to value tonight. Holiday has continued to be a huge part of this offense even with the addition of Mirotic. Holiday torched the Sixers for 51 DraftKings points earlier this season. While that likely wont happen again, Holiday still has been no lower than 32 DraftKings points in the last month. Top that floor!
Honorable Mention:
Ricky Rubio ($7,100): Rubio has been playing possessed lately, putting up 296.75 DraftKings points in just the last seven games. That comes out to a 42.4 average per game in that span. He is well worth the higher price, at least until he cools off.
Dennis Schroder ($7,000): Reinforcements for the Cavs perimeter may not be in uniform yet tonight, but Cleveland will definitely be without Thomas, Wade, and Iman Shumpert. Only Shumpert is a good defender out of the three, and he wasn’t playing anyway. Schroder could have a huge night against a backcourt that didn’t play good defense anyway and is down three pieces. However, if George Hill is in uniform, I’m moving off of Schroder. Hill is good enough to take Schroder out of the game.
Jamal Murray ($6,300): Murray was supposedly at less than 100% against Charlotte on Monday and he still racked up 38.5 DraftKings points. He is criminally underpriced here, even against a Houston team that did a good job of containing him in the first meeting. Murray has not been below 25 DraftKings points since January 19th. He has been over 5x value in six of those nine games.
Dark Horses:
Jeff Teague ($5,900): Teague torched the Cavs on Wednesday, and though the Bulls are still statistically the worst team defending the point, I tend to think that Cleveland has to be worse over the last month or so. At any rate, this is another fantastic matchup for Teague, who has proven that he can do enough other than score to still get his value on a team loaded with talent.
Jerian Grant ($5,000): Grant has been pretty consistent in the absence of Kris Dunn. He’s not going to put up big numbers normally, but this is a really good matchup against a Minnesota team that is almost as bad against point guards as Chicago is. Grant doesn’t have near the upside of Teague though.
Langston Galloway ($3,500): Galloway has done a really good job back up both guard positions in Detroit after the trade of Bradley. Galloway has 66.5 DraftKings points over the last three games which makes him a superb value source. He just doesn’t have much for upside.
My pick: Murray(PG); Galloway(PG)
Shooting Guards:
Best Bets:
Jimmy Butler ($9,600): I’m not being ornery here. I really do believe that Butler will outscore Harden tonight unless the Timberwolves blow out Chicago. Butler has more points in each of his last four games than Harden did in his game against Denver earlier this year. Don’t chase the name. Butler is a much better value tonight.
Victor Oladipo ($8,000): On paper, this is a very difficult place to deploy Oladipo. However, he torched Boston for 54.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting. Everything says to fade Oladipo here, but he looked outstanding in that first meeting. Rozier is not quite the defender that Smart is either, so there is potential here. Especially with Oladipo’s price down to a more manageable level.
Honorable Mention:
Josh Richardson ($6,200): Richardson torched Houston for 49.5 DraftKings points on Wednesday night. This will be tougher against the Bucks, but Richardson has been good for 60.25 DraftKings points against them so far in two games this season. Don’t expect Richardson to flirt with 50 again, but he should be a solid value tonight nonetheless
Zach LaVine ($6,100): Does the revenge narrative apply here? If so, Minnesota could be in some serious trouble. LaVine has played 31 minutes in each of the last two games and has put up 77.5 DraftKings points in those two contests. He is very underpriced right now for what he is capable of.
Kent Bazemore ($6,000): Bazemore has 112.25 DraftKings points in only three games with Cleveland this year. There is a load of potential here as well even if Cleveland isn’t short-handed. Hood, Hill, and Clarkson are all listed as doubtful, so it’s all systems go on the Atlanta guards tonight.
Dark Horses:
J.J. Redick ($6,200): Redick remains one of the better spot shooters in the league. He showed it in the first meeting against the Pelicans, putting up 28 points en route to 37.75 DraftKings points. The Pelcians are still really weak on the outside. They couldn’t guard Redick in the first game. There is no reason to think they can guard him here either.
J.R. Smith ($4,800): The Cavs are likely going to have to give serious run to Smith and Calderon tonight. Both are priced really low. Low enough to hit value even if they don’t do much in their 30 minutes. I don’t fully trust Calderon, but I really like Smith running with the starters. He has been shooting well lately, and will get plenty of run and shot attempts in this one.
Kyle Korver ($3,800): Remember him? Korver is still on the team! He was buried in the glut of Cavs guards, and will be again soon enough. However, he gets his chance to shine tonight against his former team. Korver has 71.5 DraftKings points in 67 minutes against Atlanta so far this season. Considering that he will likely play close to 30 minutes tonight, we could see his production climb to 8x value or better! There is a lot of potential here.
My pick: Butler(SG), Korver(G); Smith(SG), Korver(G)
Small Forwards:
Best Bets:
LeBron James ($12,100): Well, James is going to have to carry this ragtag bag of misfits tonight. No Kevin Love. Wade, Shumpert, and IT2 were all shown the door. It’s going to be three guards, LeBron, Thompson, and Jeff Green. At least they get Atlanta! A team that LeBron has a nice round 180 points against in three games this season. The King could hit value, even at this huge price. And you can afford to stuff him with another stud thanks to all of the Cleveland value lying around.
Ben Simmons ($8,500): If you pay for Simmons you are paying for potential. Simmons put up 49.25 DraftKings points the first game against New Orleans, but he has failed to hit that mark in any of the last seven games. Do you trust that he will suddenly get back up to that level again, even for one game? That’s a tough sell.
Honorable Mention:
Danilo Gallinari ($6,500): Gallinari picked up right where he left off before his injury as one of the main scorers on the team. Gallinari has 80 DraftKings points over his last two games after having his minutes limited in his first game back. Without Griffin, Gallinari is going to be leaned on to score. That is something he is very good at, and could be a solid bargain at this price once again.
Will Barton ($6,400): Barton put up 40 DraftKings points against Houston in the first meeting. Barton is riding a streak of over 30 DraftKings points in three straight games. We saw what Josh Richardson did to the Rockets with Ariza out. Barton is an even better shooter than Richardson, so that 40 he put up in the first meeting might be the low end of what Barton is capable of tonight. Ariza is listed as questionable though, so be sure to keep an eye on his status. Barton is still a solid play, but he isn’t a must play proposition if Ariza starts.
Al-Farouq Aminu ($5,500): Want reasons to play Aminu? He has 29 rebounds over the last two games. He has a good floor and the potential for more, though he is not always a major cog in the Portland offense. That could change tonight against the rebuilding Kings.
Dark Horses:
Stanley Johnson ($5,100): Johnson remains a solid contributor even with Blake in town, but now his upside is capped. That leaves Johnson as a better cash game play most nights, but this is a decent matchup for Johnson.
Luc Mbah a Moute ($4,200): Mbah a Moute has been solid with Trevor Ariza out, but there are rumblings that Ariza could play tonight. If he does, that erases the value of Mbah a Moute. Or does it? Mbah a Moute put up 28 DraftKings points on the Nuggets in only 25 minutes in a backup role earlier this year.
My pick: Barton(SF); James(SF)
Power Forwards:
Best Bets:
Blake Griffin ($9,100): This will be an interesting one with Griffin taking on his former team in Detroit. Obviously, the Clippers a weaker at the power forward position without Griffin. Teams in the East feasted on Harris earlier this season. I expect a big game here from Blake. Bigger than Giannis, and likely his biggest as a Piston. That would put him somewhere in the 50’s.
Al Horford ($7,500): Horford rarely tops value, but Indiana is not a good defensive team in the inside. Horford has 89.25 DraftKings points in two games against the Pacers so far this season. I’m willing to overlook his awful outings against Washington and Toronto over the last two games because Horford’s matchup is that good.
Honorable Mention:
Dario Saric ($6,300): I like Saric a lot better here facing Mirotic instead of A.D. Saric has at least 5x value in seven of the last ten games. He is playing well right now. I don’t see any reason for that to stop tonight. However, with all the talent on this team, Saric isn’t going to put up huge numbers most nights. That limits his upside.
Bobby Portis ($5,700): I actually prefer Portis over Markkanen tonight because most of the time Portis wont have to deal with Taj Gibson. Portis against Dieng sounds like a much better matchup. We know that Portis will get plenty or run off the bench, but his limited upside makes is a lot harder for him to hit value here.
Zach Randolph ($5,700): Randolph continues to start and play good minutes with Skal Labissiere out for the next couple of weeks. We saw Randolph succeed as a starter earlier this year. He is a double-double waiting to happen any time that he plays more than 25 minutes. Expect another solid showing from the veteran tonight.
Dark Horses:
Derrick Favors ($5,200): Favors played really well with Gobert out. This time around he has been able to carry over a consistency even with Gobert back. Favors has a decided advantage against a smaller Charlotte front. He should have no issue hitting 5-6x value tonight.
John Collins ($4,800): The Cavs are thin all over tonight. Collins has 61.5 DraftKings points in only 50 minutes against Cleveland this year. The Cleveland front is even weaker tonight with Crowder headed west and Love still out. I like Collins a lot as a value play, though he wont net you huge numbers since he doesn’t start.
Jeff Green ($4,500): Green’s status as one of the few healthy Cleveland players automatically thrusts him into DFS consideration. LeBron will try to do it by himself, but he can’t. Even the King needs help from his minions. However, guessing which minions is going to be difficult. Just like it was with the Knicks last night.
My pick: Favors(PF); Collins(F); Griffin(PF), Collins(F), Green(UTIL)
Center:
Best Bets:
Anthony Davis ($11,100): As great as Embiid is, he is still not that great of a defender if you go right at him. You can bet Brow will do just that. Even with Davis’s price this high, there is plenty of potential here tonight. I expect Mirotic to have a bit of a rough go of it against Mirotic. Holiday and Davis are going to carry the team tonight.
Andre Drummond ($10,200): What has the arrival of Blake Griffin done for Drummond? How about 182 DraftKings points in three games with him. No one in the East can match Detroit’s size. I kind of feel sorry for DeAndre Jordan with the way the Clippers have done him this year. Now he has to contend with two All-Stars with very little help. I like Griffin more tonight because of the revenge factor, but I still like Drummond to have a good game as well.
Joel Embiid ($9,800): Believe it or not, Embiid could have low ownership tonight because of the talent in front of him. By no means is he a bad option. That’s why he is in my upper tier. It just felt wrong to knock him down. At any rate, he can have some success against Davis. I don’t see him outscoring Brow from a DraftKings standpoint, but he could outscore Drummond.
Honorable Mention:
Hassan Whiteside ($7,400): A lot of attention will be focused on the high priced centers, and rightfully so. However, Whiteside is going to be an absolute steal tonight. Whiteside has amassed 96 DraftKings points in just 56 minutes against Milwaukee this year. Tyler Zeller didn’t help them that much. Whiteside can still dominate this game.
DeAndre Jordan ($7,000): Jordan held his own against Drummond earlier this season, and he has had to do more with Griffin now in Detroit. I don’t see a big game coming from Jordan,which likely leaves him better for cash games, but he is a decent play for those of you trying to go against the grain.
Willie Cauley-Stein ($6,500): I know the Kings don’t want to hear this, but the Kings have looked pretty good with Randolph and WCS starting up front. Caule-Stein has 78.75 DraftKings points in two prior meetings against Portland. This is not going to be as heavily exploited as some of tonight’s matchups, but I still expect the Sacramento frontcourt to have a good night.
Dark Horses:
Tristan Thompson ($5,000): This is a good matchup for Thompson, and I see him playing a season high in minutes tonight out of necessity. That opens the door for a lot of value for Thompson, just like most of his Cleveland teammates. This could blow up in your face much like the Knicks did last night, so I would recommend going Cavs heavy in one lineup and staying away from it in your other ones.
Greg Monroe ($4,300): Despite not hitting value, I think you have to consider Monroe’s Boston debut a success. We saw how Boston is going to use him, and it should fit Monroe’s skill set quite well. He only saw 20 minutes in an overtime game, and it will take a bit for him to get fully up to speed with Boston’s plays, but he could dominate this Indiana interior when he is in the game. There is some value with Monroe here.
My pick: Whiteside(C), Cauley-Stein(UTIL); Whiteside(C)
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