DraftKings NBA picks February 10: Are any big names worth their price?

We have a six game Saturday slate tonight. A lot of the value is gone because the trade deadline movers have settled into their new homes. Some permanent value was left and the price isn’t adjusted yet. We can seek that out to play the stars that we want to play tonight!

Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Stephen Curry ($9,500): Curry put up 45 DraftKings points in the first meeting against the Spurs, which has him flirting with 5x value. That said, all Warriors have their upsides capped due to the glut of talent on that team. However, the Spurs are without Dejounte Murray and Tony Parker tonight, so Curry will have a very easy matchup.

Lou Williams ($7,900): Williams will go back to a reserve role with Austin Rivers returning, so expecting him to drop 60 on the Sixers again is unrealistic. That also makes him kind of risky at the price. LouWill will likely still see 25-30 minutes, but is he really going to get the 39 DraftKings points that he needs for value in that short of time? Against Philly, I suppose it’s possible, but like Curry, his upside is almost nothing.

Honorable Mention:

Eric Bledsoe ($7,100): Bledsoe is coming off of three straight 40+ DraftKings points games against the Nets,Knicks,and even the Heat! He has a great chance to extend that streak tonight against the Magic. Augustin is better defensively than Payton was, but I don’t think he is that much better. There is still a lot of upside for Bledsoe tonight.

Elfrid Payton ($6,600): Payton should have a clear path to minutes even if Devin Booker is back tonight. The Suns prefer having booker at the two, so I expect Payton to start and play a lot even in his Suns debut. It helps that his debut is against a Nuggets team that has not been great against point guards this season. When you add in the fact that Canaan and maybe Booker are out, Payton should see a healthy workload.

Jamal Murray ($6,500): Murray put up 69.25 DraftKinkgs points in 60 minutes against the Suns in two prior games this season. His upside is considerable. We have seen Murray top 40 DraftKings points three times in the last nine games. On top of that, his floor has been at 25 DraftKings points in that time until last night. Last night’s complete bust (8.75 DraftKings points) could serve to keep ownership low, but the upside is still there.

Dark Horses:

Tomas Satoransky ($5,000): Satoransky gets a really nice matchup here against the Bulls tonight. I trust him a lot more than I trust the Lakers with IT2 making his debut. That likely takes a sizeable chunk out of Josh Hart’s playing time. Hart may still start, but he wont see near the run that he has been over the last ten days or so. Satoransky is in a very favorable matchup and is cheaper than Hart, and Thomas too for that matter.

Jerian Grant ($5,000): Grant has been consistently solid in the absence of Kris Dunn. With Dunn still without a timetable for a return, it’s reasonable to continue to expect solid returns from Grant. He has another really good matchup tonight with the Wall-less Wizards. He is normally more useful in cash games, but he has GPP upside tonight at well.

Patty Mills ($3,800): I would keep an eye on this to see who starts at point for the Spurs. Be it Mills or Bryn Forbes, I want the starter because they are both really cheap. Mills is the better shooter, so he could be worth a look anyway. I like him a lot more if he starts though.

My pick: Curry(PG), Mills(G); Bledsoe(PG), Payton(G)

Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

Bradley Beal ($9,000): Beal put up a staggering 70.25 DraftKings points on the Bulls in the first meeting. That isn’t going to happen again. Beal played 44 minutes in that game. I doubt he does tonight. However, I could see Beal hitting somewhere in the 50’s. This is a great matchup, and the offense is still going through Beal with Wall out.

Gary Harris ($6,500): If it seems like all of the Denver guards have torched the Suns this year, for the most part they have. The presence of Elfrid Payton will help the Suns, but not on defense. Harris has 84.25 DraftKings points in 67 minutes against the Suns so far this year. He is priced to buy again, and will put up numbers well above his price range.

Honorable Mention:

Zach LaVine ($6,400): LaVine continues to play at a high level right now. I’m a little curious to see if the Bulls will limit his minutes in a back to back, but if they don’t, LaVine could be a good value once again. Washington is pretty solid on the perimeter, so don’t expect LaVine to put up huge numbers. However, he only needs 32 DraftKings points to hit value. He hasn’t been below that mark in any of the last four games.

J.J. Redick ($5,500): The Sixers continue to lean heavily on Redick for scoring. The seven rebounds and two assists last night were just a nice bonus. Redick only had 20.5 DraftKings points in the first game against the Clippers, and now they have Avery Bradley. Don’t expect anything big out of Redick, but he should still be a solid value play.

Dark Horses:

Austin Rivers ($4,900): Rivers put up 27 DraftKings points in 32 minutes in his return to the court last night. With Milos Teodosic likely out again tonight, expect another sold workload for Rivers and well above 5x value against the Philly defense. Even if Teodosic does return, I still expect Rivers to get enough run to hit value. He isn’t nearly as likely to surpass it though.

D.J. Augustin ($4,700): Augustin is going to be widely used tonight because of his performance starting for Elfrid Payton on Thursday. Mack was mostly an afterthought, as I expect will be the case going forward. At least in the short term. Augustin is a much more reliable DFS asset than Mack right now, despite the price differential.

My pick: Beal(SG), Augustin(UTIL); Rivers(SG)

Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Kevin Durant ($9,600): Durant is the most consistent of the Warriors when it comes to hitting value. KD has been between 45 and 55 DraftKings points in nine of the last 12 games. Despite Kawhi Leonard being out for large chunks of the season, the Spurs still defend the position well. I don’t expect Durant to have a huge game, and if pressed, I would recommend Curry with the Spurs thinner at the point. However, Durant’s consistency is nice to have in cash games.

Ben Simmons ($8,500): Simmons came close to a triple-double last night and still didn’t hit value for this price. If you go by his first game against the Clippers, he is close to where you need him for tonight. I like this a lot more if Embiid’s ankle forces him to sit out the second night of a back to back. However, Simmons’s price is getting down to a more manageable level, and this is a good matchup for him.

Honorable Mention:

Brandon Ingram ($6,800): Ingram has not been under 25 DraftKings points in eight straight games now. I do wonder how much his scoring will be affected with Thomas around, but we may not see that come to fruition tonight. We don’t have much of a baromter here either since Ingram played just 13minutes in the first meeting with Dallas. He still came away with 19 DraftKings points. Ingram looks like a solid play once again.

Danilo Gallinari ($6,600): Gallinari continues to be the most reliable scorer not named Lou Williams on this team. The Clippers really missed his offense. Gallinari has 68 points over the last three games, all Clippers wins. He is a very strong play against the Sixers tonight.

T.J. Warren ($6,400): Warren has had two really good games against Denver this year, putting up 72 DraftKings points in those games. Warren could be even bigger tonight if Booker sits again. He will have some scoring help on the perimeter with the arrival of Elfrid Payton. That could take some pressure off of Warren and lead to him having an even better game.

Dark Horses:

Josh Jackson ($5,800): Jackson has been a strong play since entering the starting lineup with Booker moving to the point. If Booker returns, it is likely that Jackson returns to the bench. That doesn’t seem to be in the cards tonight, so Jackson is a decent play at this price. However, if he ends up starting at the two guard, be aware that Denver is really tough guarding that position.

Robert Covington ($5,600): Covington is a tough sell right now. He has only hit 5x value once in the last eight games. However, Covington is worth mentioning here because he destroyed the Clippers in the first meeting. Covington put up 54 DraftKings points in that one. There is potential here, but it comes with significant risk.

Trey Lyles ($5,000): Lyles has 59 DraftKings points in two meetings with Phoenix this year. This is a team that Lyles matches up well against. Since the Suns haven’t done anything to their frontcourt, I expect another solid game from Lyles here.

My pick: N/A; Gallinari(SF), Ingram(UTIL)

Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

LaMarcus Aldridge ($8,200): Aldridge put up 49 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Warriors. He also has back to back 50+ DraftKings points games, including one if just 28 minutes against the Suns on Wednesday. The 48 point victory was the worst loss in franchise history for the Suns. Expect Aldridge to have another strong showing here tonight.

Julius Randle ($7,000): Randle has been outstanding lately, which may explain why he wasn’t on the move on Thursday. Randle has more than 30 DraftKings points in five of the last six and seven of the last nine games. Fade him if you want, but I wont be against Dallas. Randle took them apart for 42.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting.

Honorable Mention:

Markieff Morris ($5,900): Morris has eight straight games with more than 25 DraftKings points, which makes him a pretty low risk option tonight. Power forward is Chicago’s best position, but they are still only middle of the pack defensively there. There is plenty of potential for Morris, who has taken on more of a role as a scorer with Wall out.

Mario Hezonja ($5,500): Aaron Gordon is still out, which means another start for Hezonja. He has at least 5x value even at this price in five of the six starts for Gordon in this recent run. Hezonja isn’t a great player, but he is a very good value play with his price holding steady in this range.

Kyle Kuzma ($5,500): His first game post-Nance was a rousing success with 37.5 DraftKings points. Channing Frye isn’t going to steal his minutes. Kuzma has been outstanding when starting this season. He is way underpriced against Dallas tonight.

Dark Horses:

Dwight Powell ($4,900): Powell has 91.25 DraftKings points over the last three games, all starts. You can say that Powell’s recent run as a starter has been a huge success. Powell remains one of the better values on the slate, even against the Lakers. I have a hard time seeing Powell not hitting value tonight.

Marquese Chriss ($4,400): Chriss served his suspension and was held out of the starting lineup upon his return, so the disciplinary action should be done. I hope it is. Chriss had 32.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Denver, but he played 31 minutes in that game. He only hits that mark if he starts, so hopefully we have word on whether Chriss starts or not prior to lineup lock.

My pick: Kuzma(PF), Hezonja(SF),Powell(F), Randle(C); Kuzma(PF), Randle(F)

Center:

Best Bets:

Joel Embiid ($9,700): The fact that both games of this back to back are at home and the fact that Embiid played just 24 minutes last night in the blowout win means that he could play both games of the back to back. Embiid’s ankle wasn’t a problem last night as he put up 51 DraftKings points in those 24 minutes. Embiid put up 57 in the first game against the Clippers. If he is in there, play him!

Nikola Jokic ($9,300): Jokic has not hit value in either game against Phoenix this year at tonight’s price. However, if Embiid is out, the drop off is very steep at center tonight. Jokic at 40is still going to be at least ten points better than anyone else except maybe Randle. If Embiid it out, Jokic could be worth it.

Honorable Mention:

John Henson ($5,300): More often than not I prefer Henson in cash games. However, Henson put up 33.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Orlando this year. Henson doesn’t get enough minutes or shots to truly have a huge night, but if you can get 7x value out of him tonight, are you really going to complain?

Dirk Nowitzki ($5,200): Dirk turned back the clock and put up 47.25 DraftKings points in just 28 minutes against the Warriors on Thursday. I wont say that he does that again, but the potential is still there for Dirk to go a ways over value, and he still has a solid floor. You can do worse at this price.

Dark Horses:

Bismack Biyombo ($4,900): Biyombo is not nearly as involved in the offense as he was when Vucevic first went down. However, he did put up 30.5 DraftKings points on the Bucks in the first meeting. Biyombo lacks significant upside, but most players at this price do. You are playing him based on the matchup, not the possibility of a huge night.

Richaun Holmes ($4,400): Holmes is only in play if Embiid does not play or is on a minutes limit. Holmes has been the one that starts when Embiid sits, and he is the first off the bench if Embiid starts. We will have official word before lineups lock tonight, so there should be little risk involved here.

My pick: N/A; Henson(C)

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