Early DraftKings NBA picks February 11: Drummond could outscore LeBron

There are a total of seven games on our Sunday. Three of them are early. We have a couple of stars to choose from here, but just how much value is left in Cleveland? Let’s take a look at this!

Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Kyrie Irving ($8,600): Irving has put up 82.75 DraftKings points in two games against his former team this season. Cleveland’s deadline deals are going to help their perimeter defense, so I don’t think the upside on Irving is as big as it would have been. That said, the new Cavs have had one practice together. There will still be some growing pains and blown assignments. I like Irving better in cash games, but he has solid DFS upside on a short slate today.

Dennis Schroder ($6,800): Schroder has put up some good numbers against Detroit this year. Schroder has 71.75 DraftKings points in 64 minutes against the Pistons this year. Detroit didn’t shore up the point guard slot much. At least not enough to stop a guy like Schroder. I trust his upside more than Irving’s today.

Honorable Mention:

Ish Smith ($5,900): This is a good situation for Smith against Atlanta. Nelson isn’t going to cut into his minutes any. Smith has at least 5x value in four of the last six games. On a short slate such as this, you can do worse than Smith in this tier. His upside isn’t massive with that huge front line now, but he is still a solid scorer.

Terry Rozier ($5,400): Rozier has 55.75 DraftKings points in two games against Cleveland so far this year. His minutes are secure with Marcus Smart out, but he has struggled from the field over the last couple of games. Still, with Rozier coming off the bench, he can put up some pretty good numbers on the Cavs.

Dark Horses:

George Hill ($4,700): The minutes are there for Hill if he can handle them. The Cavs gutted their guard rotation, and they picked up Hill mostly for defense. That means he will be on the court for a large part of the game. Boston is a great litmus test for the overhauled Cleveland roster. I can see Hill having a pretty strong game in his Cleveland debut.

Cory Joseph ($4,500): Both Joseph and Joe Young struggled against Boston in the first game without Darren Collison. Joseph will get the largest crack at the minutes. He saw 34 to Young’s 14 against Boston. If you are looking for Pacers value, Joseph is getting the minutes. He just hasn’t done much of anything with them yet.

My pick: Irving(PG), Schroder(G), Joseph(UTIL)

Shooting Guards:

Best Bet:

Victor Oladipo ($9,000): Due to the fact that Oladipo only has 66.5 DraftKings points in two games against the Knicks, I have no delusions that he will make value today. However, Oladipo does have 153.75 DraftKings points in three February games. There is a huge drop off at shooting guard today, and no one else will come close to Oladipo’s output. That still makes him the best bet.

Honorable Mention:

Tim Hardaway Jr. ($6,300): Hardaway struggled with his shot against the Raptors. Whether that had anything to do with his shin or not is anyone’s guess. That said, Hardaway had 30.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting against Indiana. He played a full compliment of minutes on Thursday, so Hardaway shouldn’t be limited at all here.

Jaylen Brown ($5,500): Brown has 70 DraftKings points in two games against Cleveland so far this season. I expect Hill and Hood to help the defense, but maybe not enough. Brown has Cleveland’s number right now. He is priced to buy, and this defense has not looked good for at least the last month. Improvement will happen, but maybe not today.

Dark Horses:

Jordan Clarkson ($5,200): Clarkson is a risk here since we don’t know exactly how much and where Clarkson will play. His role should be similar to what it was with the Lakers, but we don’t know if that is going to happen right away or not. This is a relatively cheap price for Clarkson if he gets 15 shots in 25 minutes like he did with the Lakers. The fact is that we just don’t know if that will happen right away.

Reggie Bullock ($4,600): Bullock came up big against the Clippers. In fact, he was about the only Piston that could hit a shot in that game. It seems as though Bullock is going to be the main threat from outside, much like Jrue Holiday is for the Pelicans. Bullock isn’t that kind of elite shooter, but he seems to have a solid role in this offense.

My pick: Bullock(SG)

Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

LeBron James ($11,500): James has actually done pretty well against Boston this year. The King has 105.25 DraftKings points in the prior two games against the Celtics. That still doesn’t hit value at this price, but LeBron is the only sure 50 of the afternoon. If you can afford him, I think you have to use him, even against Boston.

Michael Beastley ($7,100): Beasley put up 38.75 DraftKings points against arguably the best team in the East in the first game without Kristaps Porzingis. The potential is still pretty high for Beastley at this price. The Pacers aren’t all that great up front, so I could still see Beasley hitting 6x value or higher here.

Honorable Mention:

Thaddeus Young ($5,800): Young went through a rough patch at the beginning of February, but he got back on track against Boston on Friday. New York is still very thin up front with Porzingis and Enes Kanter out. That should allow Young some room to do some damage tonight.

Bojan Bogdanovic ($5,300): Bogdanovic has been on a roll lately, putting up more than 5x value in each of the last five games. In that span, Bogdanovic has averaged 32.5 DraftKings points per game. This is a solid matchup against New York. Expect Bogdanovic to keep his streak going.

Dark Horse:

Larry Nance Jr. ($4,400): Nance will come off the bench for Cleveland, which should come as no surprise. However, I still think Nance has a lot of upside here. Cleveland will probably play him more than the Lakers. Nance hasn’t played more than 17 minutes since January 31st. He still has 48.75 DraftKings in just 45 minutes in three February games. Even if Nance doesn’t play much, He is still a strong bet for value here.

My pick: Beastley(SF), Nance(F)

Power Forwards:

Best Bet:

Blake Griffin ($9,800): Griffin put up 58.5 DraftKings points on Atlanta while he was a member of the Clippers. The Hawks didn’t do anything to make themselves better up front, so it is reasonable to expect a strong performance again tonight. However, Drummond is taking some of his value. Griffin has not been over 42 DraftKings points since his first game in Detroit. There is risk involved here.

Honorable Mention:

Jayson Tatum ($5,400): Tatum has 59.25 DraftKings points in two meetings with Cleveland this season. Cleveland still presents a strong matchup for Tatum here. If you don’t trust Griffin to hit value, which really is a tough sell tonight, Tatum is likely the next best thing.

Domantas Sabonis ($5,100): Sabonis has a very strong matchup against a depleted New York frontcourt tonight. Sabonis hasn’t been starting lately, but he is still hitting value in good matchup. This is certainly a good matchup.

Dark Horse:

Luke Kornet ($3,000): Kornet was brilliant in a similarly gutted frontcourt for New York on Thursday. Expect another strong showing tonight. Kornet put up 34.5 DraftKings points in just 22 minutes. He may see an even larger role tonight, and the Pacers look to have a weaker frontcourt than Toronto. There is great value here once again!

My pick: Kornet(PF)

Center:

Best Bet:

Andre Drummond ($10,700): Drummond has 107.75 DraftKings points in the two prior games against Atlanta this season. The presence of Griffin doesn’t seem to have hurt Drummond at all. In five games alongside Griffin, Drummond has averaged 55.4 DraftKings points per game. This is another great matchup for Drummond. The hot streak should continue.

Honorable Mention:

Myles Turner ($6,700): Turner has struggled against the Knicks this season, but neither of the starters from those other two games will be playing tonight. There is potential for Turner against a frontcourt ravaged by injuries. However, Turner is so inconsistent that it makes him hard to rely on.

Kyle O’Quinn ($4,900): O’Quinn only came up with 24.5 DraftKings points on Kyle O’Quinn chalk night on Thursday. We were a lot better off paying up for Jonas Valancuinas in that game. There is still sound value potential here since Turner is not a great defender. Unless you are paying up for Drummond, you have to take a sizeable risk at center today.

Dark Horse:

Tristan Thompson ($4,600): Thompson doesn’t have a high ceiling, but he is putting up some good value lately. He posted a double-double on Friday against Atlanta in the LeBron and the four dwarfs lineup that Cleveland had to roll out there after all of the deadline deals. The matchup against Boston is a decent one. It’s reasonable to expect another 20-25 DraftKings points out of Thompson today.

My pick: Drummond(C)

Next: Late Slate DraftKings NBA Picks

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