Late DraftKings NBA picks February 11: Can Towns torch the Kings again?

Four more NBA games take place in Prime Time tonight. We have a couple of big stars going tonight on DraftKings as well. Will Westbrook play? How about Tyreke? We have a lot of things to look for tonight!

Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Damian Lillard ($8,700): I am fully endorsing a fade of Westbrook tonight. First off, it looks as though Evans will be back manning the point for Memphis. His defense took the Grizzlies to the top of the league defending the point before he took a seat on January 31st. Next, Westbrook wasn’t even able to practice yesterday because his ankle is still tender. I’m all for taking a 100% Lillard, who put up 64.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Utah, over a 75% Westbrook against Evans. That doesn’t even bring into consideration the $2,900 you save.

Tyreke Evans ($7,400): Evans put up a staggering 56.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Thunder this season. There is some speculation that Evans will start at SG since Harrison played so well in the fortnight that Evans missed waiting to be traded. That whole stunt by the Grizzlies may have cost them the chance to sign Evans long term this summer, but for now, expect him as a starting guard for the rest of the year. We just don’t know which one. Not that it matters. The Thunder defense has been awful since Andre Roberson went down.

Honorable Mention:

Donovan Mitchell ($6,800): This is a tougher matchup for Mitchell, but he did put up 41 DraftKings points in the first meeting against Portland. Mitchell had a rough week from February 2-9, putting up only 25.25 DraftKings points in 50 minutes over two games in that span. He got back on track on Friday with a solid game against Charlotte. There is potential here, but also significant risk against a solid Portland defense.

Ricky Rubio ($6,600): Rubio has been amazing lately, even in the 21 minutes before exiting the game against Charlotte on Friday. Rubio had 41.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting against Portland. There may be too much risk involved here to roll with Rubio in the main tournament without late swap. I have a feeling that we wont have a strong idea one way or the other on Rubio’s status before the entire freaking lineup locks. As much as I want to play Rubio here, he is a fade unless we get concrete evidence that he will play without limitations by 7pm eastern. That seems very unlikely since this game starts two hours later.

Dark Horses:

De’Aaron Fox ($5,900): The Kings cleared out some of Fox’s competition by sending George Hill to Cleveland. Fox has been playing well lately, putting up at least 25 DraftKings points in each of the last 12 games in which he hasn’t exited early (once with an illness, once with a rolled ankle in that span). He is a strong play against a Minnesota team that doesn’t defend the point well.

Raymond Felton ($3,600): Since Westbrook didn’t even practice yesterday, I am going to treat this like he isn’t starting. At least this game is one of the 7pm eastern games so we will know for sure who is starting. Now for the what if scenarios at point tonight. If Westbrook is in, I’m off Felton and on to Harrison. If Harrison sits, I’m off him and on to Alec Burks, but only if Rubio is out for certain. I hope you aren’t completely confused. There is going to be a lot of lineup tinkering at 6:55 eastern tonight!

My pick: Evans(PG), Fox(G)

Shooting Guards:

Best Bet:

James Harden ($11,400): Harden hasn’t hit value in either game against Dallas this year, but he did top 50 in both of them. Harden’s numbers have slipped with Paul back. He has only hit value once in five tries. However, Harden is a guaranteed 50 on a night when no one else is. If you can afford the Beard, it’s not a bad idea. Even if he does “only”get you 53.3 points (his average vs. Dallas in two games) again.

Jimmy Butler ($9,800): Butler put up 51.25 DraftKings points (despite only scoring 21 points) in the first meeting with the Kings. Butler has been back on fire lately, putting up at least 54 DraftKings points in each of the last three games. He really might outscore Harden. I’m not kidding.

Honorable Mention:

Wesley Matthews ($5,900): Matthews is very inconsistent, but he has done well against Houston in both games this year. Matthews put up 71 DraftKings points in two games against the Rockets earlier this season. Matthews has the coveted GPP upside, but he has missed 5x value in half of his last dozen games.

Dark Horses:

Jamal Crawford ($3,700): Crawford is a solid source of 16-18 DraftKings points as a sharpshooter off the bench. He has virtually no upside playing about 18 minutes per game, but he can give you a solid scoring punch for a low price.

Alex Abrines ($3,500): Abrines is back in the starting lineup after the failed Terrence Ferguson experiment. The Thunder did nothing at the deadline to address this issue with Roberson out for the year, so this is Abrines nailing down a starting job for now. Abrines had his best game of the season against Memphis earlier this season with Roberson out. He put up 30.5 DraftKings points in that one. There is a chance that happens again, but I wouldn’t count on it. However, he does have significantly more upside than Crawford.

My pick: Butler(SG)

Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Paul George ($9,100): Memphis is in the top five defensively in the league against small forwards, but if Westbrook it out again, George is still a must play. George still put up 50.25 DraftKings points in a blowout loss to the Lakers on Thursday with Melo and Russ out. If he is the last man standing again in Oklahoma City, he should be standing in your lineup as well.

Harrison Barnes ($6,300): All signs point to Trevor Ariza being out again, which will open things up for Barnes. Dallas is such a guard oriented team that Barnes is mostly suited for cash games due to his consistent numbers. There is plenty of upside for tonight if Ariza is out though.

Honorable Mention:

Joe Ingles ($5,500): The Jazz did DFS players a solid on Thursday by shipping out Rodney Hood. Ingles celebrated on Friday by scoring a career high 23 points and racking up 38.75 DraftKings points. His role is more safe than ever, and he should even play a few more minutes now with Hood gone. Ingles is a really nice value play as long as his price stays in this area.

Jerami Grant ($4,700): This isn’t a great spot for Grant, but he does have at least 22 DraftKings points in five straight games. I like this play more if Anthony is out, but that was no guarantee for a major minutes bump on Thursday, Grant still only played 23 minutes in that game. His role on the second unit does appear to be established now, which makes Grant a solid value pick with some upside.

Dark Horses:

Dillon Brooks ($4,400): With Wayne Selden already out, Brooks may see a few more minutes tonight, though Memphis will have Evans back tonight. Brooks picked up 23.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting against the Thunder. With Selden sitting, I could see Brooks taking on a little more of a scoring role tonight, but that does more to solidify current value than give him significant upside.

Joe Johnson ($4,000): The Rockets must be at least somewhat concerned with Ariza’s injury since they signed Johnson after he was bought out by the Kings. Houston has run a pretty tight rotation all year so far, so it remains to be seen where Johnson fits into all of this. Luc Mbah a Moute is the safer option, but Johnson has palpable upside when given the chance. He should get that here, but considering that this is his first game with Houston, there are no guarantees.

My pick: Ingles(SF), Brooks(F)

Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Carmelo Anthony ($6,100): Melo put up 41.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Memphis. The Grizzlies have struggled defending the four all season long. If Anthony is able to give it a go here, I want him in my lineup at this price.

Zach Randolph ($6,000): Randolph is a solid pivot off of Melo if Anthony is unable to go. Gibson is a tough defender, but Randolph banged with him in the first meeting and still picked up 28.75 DraftKings points in that one. Randolph doesn’t have much for upside in this one, but this is easily the weakest position tonight. Stability can be good here.

Honorable Mention:

Dwight Powell ($5,100): This is a really difficult matchup for Powell here. One in which I don’t trust Nowitzki in. This position is littered with players that struggled against today’s opponent at some point this season. Rather than take a chance there, I am more interested that going with Powell, who has four straight games with at least 6x value.

Dark Horse:

Luc Mbah a Moute ($4,200): Mbah a Moute has only been under 20 DraftKings points once in Ariza’s absence. There is no upside here either, but at a weak position, Mbah a Moute is a suitable punt since he is pretty much a lock to hit value so long as he keep playing starter’s minutes.

My pick: Powell(PF), Mbah a Moute(UTIL)

Center:

Best Bets:

Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,000): Towns had one of his best games of the season against the Kings earlier this year. Towns put up a massive game with 69.5 DraftKings points in just 34 minutes. Yes, you read that right. He averaged more than two fantasy points per minute! It is unreasonable to expect another line like that, but Towns is a serious threat to hit 50 tonight.

Marc Gasol ($8,200): Instead of Gasol playing at a higher level with Evans out, he largely struggled with all of the youngsters on the court with him. The return of Evans should serve to help Gasol return to his consistent ways. Most of the time Gasol doesn’t have much for upside, but considering how the Thunder have struggled on defense lately, he is worth a look here. Gasol put up 40.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Thunder, so he has a nice floor here.

Honorable Mention:

Clint Capela ($7,700): Capela has done reasonably well against Dallas this year with 70.75 DraftKings points in only 53 minutes. Capela still isn’t going to play enough minutes to allow him to put up a massive stat line, but this Dallas front line is pretty weak and in the second game of a back to back. There is solid upside here for Capela.

Willie Cauley-Stein ($6,500): Okay, here is the caveat to that massive stat line that Towns had earlier this year. Cauley-Stein played only 17 minutes off the bench in that one. WCS has at least 30 DraftKings points in eight of the last 11 games. Towns is still not a defensive stalwart, so there is solid upside here for Cauley-Stein, along with a little better defense on Towns.

Dark Horse:

Jusuf Nurkic ($5,700): This is a tougher one here since Nurkic has seen declining minutes over the last month or so. However, Nurkic put up 44.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting against Utah and did well defensively against Gobert in that one. I would think that Portland would need the size of Nurkic inside, so I expect him to start and play reasonably well in this game too. However, we likely wont have confirmation on the starting lineups by the time the full lineup lock hits.

My pick: Capela(C)

Next: Early DraftKings NBA Picks

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