College basketball week 15: 5 important things to know

With college basketball entering its home stretch, here’s a look at what we learned from last week

After a bit of a hiatus, we’re hitting the reset button on our weekly five takeaways column designed to share with you some of the most important notes from the week that was in college basketball. With March quickly approaching and conference title races heating up, now seemed like the perfect time.

This week, we’re talking Bracket Preview, the Big 12 title race, Michael Porter Jr.’s potential return, St. John’s resurgence and Miles Bridges’ big shot. Without further ado, let’s get after it.

5. Three lessons from the Selection Committee’s Bracket Preview

On Sunday, the NCAA Tournament’s Selection Committee released a preliminary look at the top seed lines for March. The reveal — meant to evoke reaction from those interested and to provide a bit more transparency — identified the teams in possession of the top four seed lines as of now. Here’s what the Committee came up with:

We’d be remiss not to offer our own thoughts about what the bracket preview actually means, so here’s three lessons we learned from Sunday’s reveal.

1. Quality wins still mean a ton to the Committee. This season, the NCAA redefined the wins systems into quadrants so that instead of RPI top 50 wins, we’re now talking about Quadrant 1 wins. The quadrant system devalues home victories and gives a boost to wins on the road such that Quadrant 1 includes wins over the RPI top 30 teams at home, top 50 teams on a neutral floor and top 75 teams on the road. It’s a smart adjustment meant to account for the added difficulty that comes when playing away from home.

Now, if you have complaints about seeding decisions, the easiest way to understand the Committee’s rationale is to look at who a team has beaten. Trying to figure out why a five loss Kansas team is still a No. 2 seed? The Jayhawks have nine Quadrant 1 wins, tied for most in the country with Villanova, and 14 wins across Quadrants 1 and 2, again tied for most in the country.

How did Oklahoma earn a No. 4? Easy. The Sooners have six Quadrant 1 wins. As the NCAA’s David Worlock reminded everyone on Twitter, only five teams — Villanova, Virginia, Kansas, Xavier and North Carolina — have more.

The same logic applies to Rhode Island’s absence. The Rams are the No. 5 team in the RPI, but they have just one win against Quadrant 1 opponents.

If you’re searching for an answer about seeding decisions, your best bet is to check the quadrants.

2. Advanced analytics still don’t mean a ton. Although the Selection Committee now has a number of advanced all-in-one team metrics, including KenPom and Sagarin Ratings, available on its team sheets, it doesn’t appear the group is ready to buy into the new numerical sorcery just yet. Old habits die hard.

The most obvious omission from a team quality perspective is Gonzaga. The Bulldogs rank seventh nationally in adjusted efficiency margin, per KenPom, and have five Quadrant 1 wins, but they are still floundering at No. 37 overall in the RPI. Without access to better quality opponents during conference play, it seems likely mid- and low-majors will likely remain somewhat under-seeded in March.

3. Still, one illogical decision stands out. Given what we can infer from the above, it seems odd the Committee seeded Duke above North Carolina. Although the Blue Devils rank as a slightly better team according to advanced metrics and have fewer losses, they lag behind the Tar Heels in the seemingly relevant metrics. North Carolina has three more Quadrant 1 wins, two more Quadrant 1 plus Quadrant 2 wins and is ranked higher overall in the RPI. The Tar Heels do have one bad loss — a home defeat to Wofford — but similar losses didn’t seem to punish others. So, why is Duke a No. 2 seed and North Carolina a No. 3? That’s sort of unclear.