DraftKings NBA Picks February 12: Is Embiid the top play?

We have a six game Monday slate tonight. This is a little less than some Monday’s earlier this season, but there are still plenty of options. We have some big names and some bargains. Who will help us cash?

Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Stephen Curry ($9,900): This is an outstanding matchup for Curry, but that hasn’t mattered much. Curry has not hit 5x value since January 27th against Boston. This is not a big name on a big stage, and there is also big blowout potential here. I’m staying away from all of the Warriors tonight. Well, the expensive ones at least.

Elfrid Payton ($7,100): Payton was strong in his Suns debut, putting up 38.5 DraftKings points in that one. It could throw a wrench into things if Booker returns. I tend to think that Booker would take his old spot of SG, but that isn’t a given with the way Josh Jackson is playing. Keep a close eye on Booker’s status. If he is in there, I’m off of Payton simply because we wont know the starting lineup before our whole DraftKings lineups lock.

Honorable Mention:

Donovan Mitchell ($7,000): Mitchell had another strong game with Rubio out last night. He now has 80 DraftKings points over the last two games. Rubio did play 21 minutes on Friday, but I tend to think that with another game tonight that the Jazz will hold Rubio out again to be safe. Mitchell is a decent play regardless, but I like him a lot more if Rubio is out.

Kris Dunn ($6,500): There is no concrete word on Dunn yet, but he has not had any concussion symptoms since the middle of last week. I tend to think that Dunn will be in the lineup tonight. We should have some kind of clarification on Dunn’s status early enough that we can adjust our lineups accordingly. If he is in there, this is a great matchup against Orlando. If he’s not, I’m all over Jerian Grant.

Spencer Dinwiddie ($6,400): Dinwiddie’s play with Russell out has turned into a full time gig for him. The return of Russell hasn’t hampered Dinwiddie’s production at all. In fact, he has been over 5x value in each of the last three games and five of the last six. Dinwiddie is a strong bet against the Clippers, since I believe that Bradley will be on Russell.

Dark Horses:

Rajon Rondo ($5,700): It’s time for the Pelicans to quit screwing around. They are a playoff team with Rondo in there. He put up a triple-double on Saturday, and set a franchise record for assists in a game earlier this season. He need to be starting. Period. Fortunately, the Pelicans are in the early round of games so we will know for sure if they took my advice or not before deploying Rondo in our lineups.

D.J. Augustin ($5,300): The Bulls are still the worst team in the league defending point guards. Augustin has been very good since taking over the starting slot with Payton sent to Phoenix. I like him at this price and with this matchup tonight.

Emmanuel Mudiay ($4,300): Mudiay’s first bite of the Big Apple went well. He finished with 32 DraftKings points in 29 minutes despite not drawing the start. He outplayed Jarrett Jack. He outplayed Trey Burke. Frank Ntilikina too. Mudiay was the best point guard on the floor yesterday, and makes for a strong value play against the Sixers before his price skyrockets.

My pick: Mudiay(PG); Mitchell(PG), Rondo(G), Grant(UTIL)

Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

Jrue Holiday ($7,500): Holiday continues to fill up the stat sheet even with Rondo and Mirotic having solid nights on Saturday. Holiday is capable of having a big night in any given matchup, but this one against Detroit looks particularly promising. Detroit gave up 35 DraftKings points to Holiday in the first meeting. He should at least get close to 5x value tonight with the potential for more.

Zach LaVine ($6,900): I still think LaVine is priced too low. He has at least 5x value in three straight games. More importantly, LaVine has played at least 30 minutes in each of those games. He seems to be firmly in the swing of things with his new team. It remains to be seen how he and Dunn will mesh together, but I’m not expecting a big drop off from LaVine. At least not against Orlando.

Honorable Mention:

Josh Jackson ($6,200): This may be too big of a risk since we wont know Booker’s status before the lineups lock, but I don’t really see Phoenix benching Jackson. He has been their most prolific scorer lately. Jackson has at least 25 DraftKings points in nine of the last ten games, including his first 40 pointer on Saturday against Denver. I tend to think that the Suns would move Payton to the second unit before Jackson, so Jackson should be safe.

Tim Hardaway Jr. ($6,000): Someone has to score with Porzingis out. Beastley has done a nice job, and Mudiay will help, but the Knicks need Hardaway to get back on track. We know that he is capable of pretty big games at times. He seemed to bust out of his slump during the game yesterday. Let’s see if that carries over.

J.J. Redick ($5,500): Redick put up 39.5 DraftKings points in just 27 minutes against the Knicks earlier this season. Redick still continues to be one of the most consistent shooters in the league, which gives him a solid floor 95% of the time. I would be surprised if he struggled against the Knicks, so Redick is a strong value play tonight.

Dark Horses:

Austin Rivers ($5,400): The presence of Bradley has moved Rivers to the starting point guard and LouWill to the bench. This is working for the Clippers, though it does remove a lot of upside from both Rivers and Williams. However, with the price on Rivers in this range, he is still a strong value play.

Shelvin Mack ($4,800): Don’t go knighting D.J. Augustin just yet. Mack played more minutes and put up a staggering 45.5 DraftKings points on the Bucks on Saturday. With both Augustin and Mack playing well, there is a chance that the struggling Jonathon Simmons finds himself on the second team. At any rate, Mack should see plenty of minutes until he cools off.

My pick: LaVine(SG), Mack(G); LaVine(SG), Redick(F)

Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

T.J. Warren ($6,900): I’m not a big fan of the expensive option at SF tonight. Durant had his lowest usage rate of the season on Saturday, which is the risk you run when using a player on a team full of stars. Ben Simmons is trending upward, but it still not to the point where he hits 5x value with any kind of regularity. Warren seems to do better when others around him are scoring. It doesn’t matter to him, or us, if the one doing the other scoring is Booker, Payton, or Jackson. Warren just seems to do better.

Michael Beasley ($6,800): This is what we have expected to see from Beasley since he was a one and done phenom at Kansas State. Beasley has 77 DraftKings points in two games with Porzingis out. He still carries decent upside even at his elevated price when the matchup is right. This is a pretty solid one against the Sixers here.

Honorable Mention:

Danilo Gallinari ($6,300): Gallinari continues to put up some big scoring numbers. The encouraging thing about Saturday is that Gallinari played 40 minutes against Philadelphia. He is fully back, and his status as one of the better shooters in the league gives him a strong floor and ample upside most nights.

Mario Hezonja ($5,600): I do want to thank Orlando for giving us updates far enough in advance so we can use Hezonja. Aaron Gordon is already ruled out again, which means you can count on Hezonja for anywhere from 4-6x value. This is a soldi matchup against the Bulls, just don’t expect to see any huge numbers.

DeMarre Carroll ($5,400): Carroll has three straight games with at least 30 DraftKings points. He doesn’t have a ton of upside, but if he is going to hit 30 with consistency, that is good enough value to use in GPP formats as well. The minutes and chances are there with RHJ still out.

Dark Horses:

Joe Ingles ($5,200): Ingles continues to take on a large scoring role with Rodney Hood now in Cleveland. I am aboard a fade here tonight since the Spurs are a very tough opponent, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see Ingles go over 5x value again. He just may not hit 7x value like he has lately.

Jae Crowder ($4,100): Crowder was very good in his Jazz debut, putting up 27.75 DraftKings points in 29 minutes against Portland. If the Spurs are going to continue to run with Bertans in the starting lineup, there could be potential for another strong game here. Crowder isn’t going to destroy value, but 6x value is still within reach here.

My pick: Gallinari(SF), Hezonja(F); Beasley(SF), Hezonja(PF)

Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Blake Griffin ($9,500): Blake put up 99.5 DraftKings points in two tussles with the Brow while in the Western Conference. Griffin has it easier tonight since he will draw Mirotic in this one. Can you imagine how much fun this would have been if Boogie were healthy? Davis and Cousins against Blake and Drummond. Oh yeah! Since we don’t have that, we will just have to settle for Griffin bullying the undersized Mirotic here.

Tobias Harris ($6,600): Harris has posted consistent numbers since being traded to the Clippers. He has been between 28.5 and 35 DraftKings points in every game in a Clippers uniform. That leaves Harris best for cash games right now, but this is an encouraging development for someone who was so inconsistent in Detroit. He is a decent GPP option, but we haven’t see the upside yet. We could against Brooklyn, who is still without Rondae Hollis-Jefferson.

Honorable Mention:

Lauri Markkanen ($6,500): It will take a bit of a leap of faith to use Markkanen tonight. He struggled against Orlando earlier in the season, but that was when he had to deal with Aaron Gordon. With Gordon still out, there is plenty of potential for Markkanen tonight, but he continues to lose minutes to Portis. This is a better matchup for Markkanen, so expect to see him more tonight.

Dario Saric ($6,400): Saric struggled against Porzingis, so this is a welcome sight for Saric. He has at least 30 DraftKings points in all but two of the last ten games. Saric is a favorite in cash games, but with Porzingis out, there is decent potential for GPP play as well.

Dark Horses:

Dragan Bender ($4,700): Honestly, I don’t trust anyone in this Phoenix frontcourt right now. However, Bender has played at least 32 minutes in each of the last three games. He appears to be getting good run right now. I like this matchup with the Warriors since Draymond is considered doubtful. There is serious potential here.

Davis Bertans ($4,300): Bertans has 55.75 DraftKings points over the last two games in the starting lineup. Those are not great numbers, but those are nice for a cheap value play. His minutes are safe again tonight with LaMarcus Aldridge getting the night off.

My pick: Bender(PF); N/A

Center:

Best Bets:

Joel Embiid ($10,200): You may have noticed the conspicuous absence of Anthony Davis. It’s by design. With all of the other good options at center tonight, I’m not going to force him in there. Davis picked up 48 DraftKings points against Detroit in the first meeting, which is not nearly enough for his price. Not when you have Embiid sitting there. The same Embiid that blasted the Knicks for 55 DraftKings points in the first meeting. He also put up 61 on Jordan and the Clippers on Saturday. I would much rather save the $1,200 and play Embiid.

Andre Drummond ($10,100): Drummond struggled some against Boogie the first time around, mostly because he didn’t get as many rebounds as normal. That is certainly a possibility again tonight, but the arrival of Griffin has opened the middle up for Drummond to become more involved in the offense. There is solid potential here tonight.

Honorable Mention:

Enes Kanter ($7,300): Embiid wasn’t the only one that had a big game in the first Knicks-Sixers matchup. Kanter hung 60.5 DraftKings points on Embiid in that game. Kanter’s numbers were trending upward even before Porzingis went down. Now he has even more potential. I like Kanter a lot at this price if you are okay fading the stars at center.

DeAndre Jordan ($7,200): The Nets are far and away the worst team in the league against centers. They have not given up less than 50 DraftKings points to a center in nearly a month. That streak could continue. Even if it doesn’t, Jordan should still be good for 6x value.

Rudy Gobert ($6,700): Gobert has a pretty strong matchup here since Aldridge is going to sit out. Gobert is a double-double machine and is priced to buy since the Spurs wont be as strong in the middle as usual tonight.

Dark Horses:

Jarrett Allen ($5,000): The rookie was pushed around by the Brow when he was in the game on Saturday. The Nets quickly realized that that was not the place for Allen. He could be better against Jordan tonight, but he will also be at a decided disadvantage against Jordan as well. If Allen starts, he is worth taking a chance on. Just be aware that the Nets may elect to roll with Acy instead.

Emeka Okafor ($3,000): No, this is not Jahlil Okafor. Read it again. That’s right. Emeka is back! the Pelicans have been playing him alongside Davis against bigger teams, and if that is the strategy, it will definitely be in play here tonight against Detroit. There is risk involved here, but Okafor picked up 25 DraftKings points in 20 minutes against the Sixers on Friday. However, he did not play against the Nets on Saturday, even though the game went 58 minutes.

My pick: Embiid(C), Jordan(UTIL); Jordan(C)

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