The Kansas Jayhawks haven’t lost four conference games this “early” in the season under Bill Self since, ever. After losing to Baylor on Saturday the conference title is in jeopardy. How high is their ceiling?
The Kansas Jayhawks have had an up-and-down season. They started out by beating Kentucky in the Champions Classic. Turns out they’re not that good, and when Kansas got back home to play Washington it turned up some major flaws in their game. We knew they were undersized coming into the season, especially since they didn’t have Billy Preston.
They haven’t been bullied per say on the boards, but they’ve been outrebounded in the vast majority of the games they’ve played. The last team they outrebounded an opponent was Kansas State, and that’s the only conference foe they’ve bested on the boards. At this point in the season fans should stop hoping that Kansas will win the battle of the boards, because it’s not going to happen. Bill Self could trot out both Mitch Lightfoot and Udoka Azubuike like he’s done the past few games, and it’s not going to change much.
After losing to Baylor for the first time in a long time, Kansas fans are legitimately scared, and rightfully so. They’ve never been in this position before. Never has a Bill Self coached Kansas team had four conference losses by Feb. 10. The last Kansas team that didn’t win the conference (back in 2004) didn’t even have that many conference losses at this point in time of their season.
Simply put, if Kansas somehow wins the Big 12 they’ll have done it in a way that they’ve never done before during this streak. The conference titles are nice, but everyone knows that they haven’t won a National Championship since 2008, and haven’t been to the title game since 2012. After a few Elite Eight exits the past couple season, and now it’s a question whether they’ll make it out of the first weekend this year.
Right now their current ranking of No. 15 according to Ken-Pom is the lowest they’ve been ranked during this incredible run of conference titles. It would represent the lowest Ken-Pom finish Bill Self has ever had if they finish that way.
On paper, Kansas should be better than what they are. They’re 18th in the country in made 3s per game, and they’re 17th in 3-point percentage. Both numbers lead the Big 12. So why do they struggle so much? Outside of being tied for 149th in rebounding, they just don’t get stops when they need them.
Kansas is tied for 122nd in the country in points allowed per game, and their average margin of victory in conference play is barely more than five points. We’ve also seen what it looks like when the Jayhawks don’t hit the 3-ball, and that’s exactly what happened on Saturday when they shot 19 percent from 3.
Their struggles to get stops was evident in Waco, Texas on Saturday. After cutting their 10-point halftime deficit down to two with 8:43 left in the game Baylor finished the game on a 26-10 run.
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I doubt the guys in the locker room are taking teams for granted, because they played hard on Saturday. The fact that Baylor almost never beats them probably never crossed their mind on Saturday, but something is different this year. Kansas has to win games in ways that they and their fans may not be accustomed to.
At their best, Kansas is a Final Four team. If they get hot from 3, and play defense like they did in January there are not many teams that can outscore them. At their worst it is a legitimate question whether they’d make it out of the first weekend, because they turn in performances like they did Saturday.
If Kansas wants to be that Final Four team then senior Devonte’ Graham has to be at his best, and he doesn’t have a choice. Despite the 17 points a night that he’s getting, he’s only shooting 40 percent from the floor, and that might not be enough come tournament time. Not to mention there are nights where it feels like he doesn’t want to shoot too much. Graham has to be the aggressor if the Jayhawks want to make a deep run come March.
Chances are Kansas is still going to win the conference. Every year we get to this point, and whoever is in contention to dethrone the Jayhawks somehow finds a way to blow it. If they do win the conference it won’t be for a lack of effort, but boy has this been a stressful season for the Jayhawk faithful.