This Week in Stats: Tottenham should have crushed Arsenal

Tottenham had the chances to batter Arsenal, Manchester City’s march to the title continued in style, and Manchester United were unlucky at Newcastle.

The race to be the best of the rest below Manchester City took an interesting turn on Sunday, as Liverpool won at Southampton and Manchester United lost at Newcastle, who began the match in the relegation zone. The defeat was United’s second in their last three matches, while the Magpies jumped up to 13th in the table.

In Jose Mourinho’s defense, his side were unfortunate to lose. They had three more shots in total, a whopping nine more in the box, and an extra clear-cut chance. On expected goals difference, it was their third best away league performance this season.

So why did they lose? There are several reasons, but one worth noting is that David de Gea wasn’t able to bail them out, as he has so often this season.

Way back in September, this column noted United are susceptible to crosses and set plays. Newcastle’s winner came from a dead ball situation, and while de Gea was entirely free from blame for it, the goal underscored how regularly the Spaniard makes saves no one could reasonably expect him to make. Mourinho’s team have won nine points more than their statistical performances have merited this season, and that’s often been thanks to de Gea. He couldn’t save them on Sunday.

Newcastle’s hero was Dwight Gayle. Matt Richie may have scored the winner, but Gayle set it up, and also cleared two shots off the line. Florian Lejeune also blocked a goal-bound shot, and both DeAndre Yedlin and Jamaal Lascelles made last-man tackles to thwart United attacks. The skipper’s was in the 93rd minute, so it was of particularly vital importance.

The home side’s debutant goalkeeper, Martin Dubravka, also played his part. He saved both of United’s clear-cut chances, and one was after his side had taken the lead. Add all this together, and it’s apparent the visitors were unfortunate to lose, but this sort of result has been on the cards for United for a while.

Why did Leicester change formation?

Manchester City beat Leicester 5-1 on Saturday, and Sergio Aguero became the third player to reach 20 Premier League goals for the season. Yet at halftime it was 1-1, and while the home side dominated, they hadn’t carved Leicester apart.

City had six shots on target — enough to satisfy most teams across a whole match — in the first half alone. Only two of their attempts were from the center of the penalty area, though, as Leicester largely restricted them to shooting from distance or wide in the box.

The Foxes achieved this by playing three center-backs for the first time this season. Their back five prevented City from working well out wide, as they often do. Yes, Kevin De Bruyne whipped in a wonderful cross for the opener, but that was the only key pass into the center of the box in the first half.

Jamie Vardy scored to continue his fine record against top sides, and Leicester were in the game at the break.

So why did Claude Puel switch to a back four in the second half? Whatever the reason, it didn’t pay off. Aguero scored four goals, while City had 12 shots in total with 10 in the box.

One of the efforts from outside the penalty area was a rocket from Aguero. Only 17 of his 143 Premier League goals have been from outside the box, so it was something of a collector’s item.

Manchester City’s quality would probably have won the day in the end regardless, but Leicester were containing them well until they made a tactical switch they needn’t have.

Next: A brief history of Antonio Conte goading Roman Abramovich

Better finishing would have seen a derby battering

The 1-0 scoreline suggests the north London derby was a close run thing. If Alexandre Lacazette had converted Arsenal’s one clear-cut chance of the match in stoppage time, the Gunners would’ve won a point.

It would have been hugely unjust as they barely laid a glove on Tottenham in the opening 90 minutes of the match.

It wasn’t just that Arsenal didn’t create much, but Spurs had enough chances to win several matches. Harry Kane only had four shots, which is low for him. The England international averages 6.1 per ninety minutes played in the league in 2017-18. Only a certain Cristiano Ronaldo averages more in Europe’s big five leagues.

Never mind the total, though, feel the quality. Three of Kane’s attempts at goal were clear-cut chances, and while he scored one to win the game, the other two went off target.

In total, Spurs had six clear-cut chances but only scored one of them. A team has only missed five-or-more golden opportunities three other times in the Premier League this season.

One of those other occasions was Tottenham in their 2-1 defeat at Leicester. Their misses here didn’t prove as costly, but they did mean Spurs spurned the chance for a handsome derby victory.

As for Arsenal, according to the stats it was the fifth league match in their last eight which they probably deserved to lose. Only the Europa League can save their Champions League qualification hopes now.