After taking the league by storm in 2017, the Jacksonville Jaguars and Minnesota Vikings are among a half-dozen teams staring down regression.
Behind punishing defenses, the Jacksonville Jaguars and Minnesota Vikings will be trendy picks to reach Super Bowl LIII. For Jacksonville, it would be its first appearance in the ultimate game, while Minnesota has not been there since the 1976 season.
For both fanbases, there is ample reason for excitement. Still, if history has taught us anything, patience should be exercised in both cities.
Jacksonville and Minnesota both rose from the ashes to reach their respective conference title games. The Jaguars nearly dethroned the New England Patriots, while the Vikings were blown out at the hands of the Philadelphia Eagles. After such successful seasons, it’s easy to believe they will make the next logical step and contend once more to hoist the Lombardi. That could well be true, but not before a step back.
Minnesota and Jacksonville are not alone on that track. The Los Angeles Rams, New Orleans Saints, Carolina Panthers and even the Eagles should also beware.
Since the start of the 2007 season, there have been 40 teams to miss the postseason one year, then reach it the following campaign accompanied by at least a four-game win increase.
All of them are listed below, along with what happened to them the following season:
2007
Washington Redskins (5-11 to 9-7) Following year: Missed playoffs
Green Bay Packers (8-8 to 13-3) Following year: Missed playoffs
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12 to 9-7) Following year: Missed playoffs
2008
Miami Dolphins (1-15 to 11-5) Following year: Missed playoffs
Baltimore Ravens (5-11 to 11-5) Following year: Made playoffs (9-7)
Atlanta Falcons (4-12 to 11-5) Following year: Missed playoffs
Carolina Panthers (7-9 to 12-4) Following year: Missed playoffs
2009
Cincinnati Bengals (4-11-1 to 10-6) Following year: Made playoffs (10-6)
Green Bay Packers (6-10 to 11-5) Following year: Made playoffs (10-6)
New Orleans Saints (8-8 to 13-3) Following year: Made playoffs (11-5)
2010
Kansas City Chiefs (4-12 to 10-6) Following year: Missed playoffs
Chicago Bears (7-9 to 11-5) Following year:: Missed playoffs
Atlanta Falcons (9-7 to 13-3) Following year: Made playoffs (10-6)
2011
Cincinnati Bengals (4-12 to 9-7) Following year: Made playoffs (10-6)
Houston Texans (6-10 to 10-6) Following year: Made playoffs (12-4)
Denver Broncos (4-12 to 8-8) Following year: Made playoffs (13-3)
Detroit Lions (6-10 to 10-6) Following year: Missed playoffs
San Francisco 49ers (6-10 to 13-3) Following year: Made playoffs (11-4-1)
2012
Indianapolis Colts (2-14 to 11-5) Following year: Made playoffs (11-5)
Washington Redskins (5-11 to 10-6) Following year: Missed playoffs
Minnesota Vikings (3-13 to 10-6) Following year: Missed playoffs
Seattle Seahawks (7-9 to 11-5) Following year: Made playoffs (13-3)
2013
Kansas City Chiefs (2-14 to 11-5) Following year: Missed playoffs
Philadelphia Eagles (4-12 to 10-6) Following year: Missed playoffs
Carolina Panthers (7-9 to 12-4) Following year: Made playoffs (7-8-1)
New Orleans Saints (7-9 to 11-5) Following year: Missed playoffs
2014
Dallas Cowboys (8-8 to 12-4) Following year: Missed playoffs
Detroit Lions (7-9 to 11-5) Following year: Missed playoffs
2015
Washington Redskins (4-12 to 9-7) Following year: Missed playoffs
Minnesota Vikings (7-9 to 11-5) Following year: Missed playoffs
2016
Miami Dolphins (6-10 to 10-6) Following year: Missed playoffs
Oakland Raiders (7-9 to 12-4) Following year: Missed playoffs
Dallas Cowboys (4-12 to 13-3) Following year: Missed playoffs
New York Giants (6-10 to 11-5) Following year: Missed playoffs
2017
Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13 to 10-6) Following year: ?
Philadelphia Eagles (7-9 to 13-3) Following year: ?
Minnesota Vikings (8-8 to 13-3) Following year: ?
New Orleans Saints (7-9 to 11-5) Following year: ?
Carolina Panthers (6-10 to 11-5) Following year: ?
Los Angeles Rams (4-12 to 11-5) Following year: ?
Of the 34 teams we have “following year” results on, the numbers are telling. Only 11 returned the playoffs the next year, and just four improved on their record. Of the teams which saw an uptick in wins, two were quarterbacked by Russell Wilson and Peyton Manning.
In terms of the ultimate goal, only the ’10 Packers and ’13 Seahawks were the only teams to win the Super Bowl.
Over the past four seasons, only the ’13 Panthers returned to the postseason, doing so with a 7-8-1 record.
Looking at the half-dozen current teams that fit the aforementioned criteria, the cases for repeated success vary.
Jacksonville will go from a last to first-place schedule, and assuming it sticks with Blake Bortles, is saddled with a bottom-rung quarterback. The Jaguars will also contend in a much-improved division, with Deshaun Watson and Andrew Luck expected to be healthy.
Philadelphia, Los Angeles, Carolina, New Orleans and Minnesota all have the shared hurdle of being in a loaded conference. The Rams must hold off the hard-charging 49ers, along with a Seattle team trying to reload behind Wilson. Los Angeles will also draw a first-place schedule, as will Minnesota, Philadelphia and New Orleans.
The Eagles could be without Carson Wentz in the early going as he continues to rehab from a torn ACL. As for the Vikings, they have a quarterback controversy brewing between Teddy Bridgewater and Case Keenum, throwing everything into chaos. Minnesota also has the disadvantage of Green Bay welcoming back a healthy Aaron Rodgers.
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New Orleans and Carolina are perhaps in the NFL’s toughest division, although Carolina is the only one of the six teams without a first-place docket ahead. The Saints will have to hope Father Time doesn’t drag Drew Brees down, while the Panthers must overcome changing ownership, a middling batch of offensive talent and a youthful secondary.
If recent history is an indication, two of the six will find a way back to the postseason. Injuries, free agency, lower draft slots and tougher schedules are working against them, drawing the group back toward the middle.