DraftKings NBA Picks February 15: Joker’s Wild against the Bucks
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks February 15: Joker’s Wild
We have just two games in the NBA tonight as we head towards the All Star Break. We have to get creative on DraftKings since there isn’t a ton of value tonight, but there are several good players out there. Who can we fit in our lineup?
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The money line last night was as huge as the slate despite Rondo and Isaiah Thomas getting tossed before the first quarter was even done. It took 291 DraftKings points to make money tonight. My closest lineup hit on Hawks value and had a huge night from Davis, but fell just short thanks to Dragan Bender. I wont forget this.
The winning lineup was actually 0.75 points lower than last night. He stacked KD and Anthony Davis and also hit on the Hawks value, Cory Joseph, Royce O’Neale, and Jrue.
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Point Guards:
Best Bets:
Eric Bledsoe ($7,100): Bledsoe has become one of the more consistent options at the point lately. The rotations aren’t so wacky in Milwaukee anymore. Bledsoe is constantly playing between 32 and 36 minutes per game. He also has at least 35 DraftKings points in each of the last five games. That leaves him with 5x value as his floor. Bledsoe is a great option, and not just because of the short slate.
Jeff Teague ($6,200): Teague had a solid 31.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Lakers. He could also have an easier time against the point this time around taking on 5’9” Isaiah Thomas. Teague is a solid scorer on a team full of them. The Timberwolves are scoring a lot of points right now, so there is plenty to go around.
Honorable Mention:
Jamal Murray ($6,100): Murray played through pain on Tuesday and still put up 28.75 DraftKings points against the Spurs. This is a bit of an easier matchup against Milwaukee. Murray remains a strong play due to his involvement in the offense. He is capable of going off on any given night.
Isaiah Thomas ($5,800): Thomas has been a shot in the arm for the Lakers, who are still without Lonzo Ball. Thomas has still produced well off the bench. Of course, we only have five quarters to go on here since a chalky Thomas was tossed last night for fighting with Rajon Rondo. It’s nice for the Lakers to have some fight in them. Hopefully next time he wont be in my lineup when he decides to mix it up.
Dark Horses:
Devin Harris ($3,600): Harris is still playing about as many minutes off the bench as he did with Dallas, but this Denver bench doesn’t quite have the shooters that Dallas does. Harris is still trying to find his role here, but he has put together two solid games for this price since his arrival in Denver.
Jason Terry ($3,000): A few minutes have opened up for Terry with the injury to Malcolm Brodgon. He has put together three straight games of double digit DraftKings points. If for some reason you need to go super cheap, Terry is a decent option, but he has no upside at all.
My pick: Bledsoe(PG), Teague(G), Harris(UTIL); Thomas(PG), Harris(G)
Shooting Guards:
Best Bet:
Jimmy Butler ($9,500): Butler has put up 95 DraftKings points over two games with the Lakers so far this season. He has struggled a bit in the last two games, but the Lakers defense seems to bring out the best in opposing offensive players. Expect Butler to head into the break strong here tonight.
Honorable Mention:
Gary Harris ($5,900): Harris hasn’t come close to value in any of the last three games due to a shooting slump, but the rest of his numbers are still good and his usage has not decreased any. If he can get his shot figured out, Harris could have a strong night against the Bucks. There is a risk here though due to his current slump and scoring dependency.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($5,100): This is a tough play for me since KCP has struggled against Minnesota this year. However, Caldwell-Pope has put together back to back games of more than 6x value against teams (Oklahoma City and Dallas) that are decent on the perimeter. You are going to have to take a leap of faith somewhere in your lineup tonight. This could be a good spot.
Dark Horses:
Jamal Crawford ($3,600): Crawford continues to put up solid scoring numbers off of the Minnesota bench, but he does little else. Still, the Timberwolves run a tight rotation of about eight guys. Given that Crawford is a member of that, he is a lock for 20 minutes per game. He has little upside, but he can provide a solid boost for this price.
Sean Kilpatrick ($3,400): Kilpatrick still has not been able to nail down the backup job for Milwaukee. That means his minutes and production have stayed sporadic. He may be someone worth looking at in GPP formats because the upside is there. Kilpatrick has hit 6x value or better twice in the last four games. The other two times he was in single digits.
My pick: N/A; Crawford(SG)
Small Forwards:
Best Bets:
Will Barton ($6,800): Barton has put up some big numbers with Harris and Murray both struggling. His numbers were solid before this, but if one or both continue to struggle, Barton has been more than able to pick up the slack. Barton has played 85 minutes and scored 82.5 DraftKings points over the last two games. I can’t give you a good reason not to use him!
Andrew Wiggins ($6,400): Wiggins has done well against the Lakers this year. In two games against the team that was in Minneapolis first, Wiggins has 73.75 DraftKings points. That puts him right at 6x value if he can get that number again. Now for the bad news: Wiggins was 2-14 from the floor against Houston, and the Rockets were still without Ariza.
Honorable Mention:
Brandon Ingram ($6,300): Ingram’s assist total went down with the arrival of Thomas, but he still put up more than 30 DraftKings points for the fifth straight games and the seventh time in eight games. Ingram is still the leader of this team. Now for the bad news. Yes, there is some here too. Ingram only had 22.75 DraftKings points in the first game against Minnesota.
Kyle Kuzma ($6,000): Kuzma has put up three big games since Larry Nance was shipped to Cleveland. He has 58 DraftKings points in 59 minutes this season against Minnesota, so despite the numbers saying this is a bad matchup, I trust Kuzma more than most. He is starting, and his athleticism will help get the best of Taj Gibson a few times.
Dark Horse:
Jabari Parker ($4,200): The Bucks continue to bring Parker along slowly. That is a trend that may continue over much of the second half as well. Parker’s price is still pretty low, but his minutes have been so severely limited that Parker has not hit value yet. We have seen signs of the rust coming off, but using him when more than 20 minutes isn’t guaranteed is a pretty big risk for not much of a reward.
My pick: Kuzma(SF); Kuzma(SF)
Power Forwards:
Best Bet:
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,700): Forget for a minute that Giannis has only hit value once this calendar month. He is easily the best player on the slate today. Jimmy Butler may get close to scoring in Antetokounmpo’s range, but that would be the high end of Butler’s potential. All Giannis has to do is have a normal game and he is still in the high 40’s at worst. The only other alternative I would consider is stacking Butler and Jokic to fading Giannis, but at that point you are already in a big salary hole on a slate that doesn’t have a whole lot of value available. Giannis is a tough fade tonight despite not having hit value since February 2nd.
Honorable Mention:
Taj Gibson ($5,300): The Lakers’ front looks a little different than the first two times that Gibson faced them. How much better are they? That remains to be seen. I will say that Gibson has 57.5 DraftKings points in 67 minutes over those prior two games. That puts him comfortably at 5x value on a night where 250 will likely put you above the cash line.
Wilson Chandler ($4,900): Chandler has replaced Trey Lyles in the rotation, and it’s easy to see why. Lyles faded after a strong start. Meanwhile, Chandler has responded to his increased minutes by putting up 80.25 DraftKings points over the last two games against the Suns and a diminished Spurs squad. I would take the numbers with a grain of salt, but that can wait until after the break when the Nuggets play a team that’s good up front. I wouldn’t say the Bucks fall into that category.
Dark Horse:
Gorgui Dieng ($3,400): If you are using Dieng, you are essentially banking on one of two things. One would be the Lakers using a bigger lineup with Randle and Lopez in the game. That doesn’t seem all that likely. The next would be a blowout, which is more likely. At any rate, Dieng is a solid producer when he gets minutes, but Dieng has only played 15 minutes or more three times in the last ten games. This is a huge risk, and the reward is low 20’s at best.
My pick: Gibson(PF), Chandler(F); Chandler(PF)
Center:
Best Bets:
Nikola Jokic ($9,800): The Joker could be wild tonight against an already undersized Bucks team that is without John Henson again. Who is going to stop him? Maker? Doubtful. He has the size, but is very raw. Zeller? He couldn’t stop anyone in Brooklyn. Plumlee? Yeah, right! These will be no more than flies that the Joker swats away. The ownership will be sky high, but Jokic is the only one that I realistically see outscoring Giannis tonight.
Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,300): Towns has back to back monster games, putting up 121 DraftKings points against the Kings and Rockets. Those are two teams that are pretty solid inside. The Lakers are not. Towns is an acceptable fade option tonight, but why not take advantage of DraftKings’ only advantage over FanDuel right now: playing two centers. The UTIL slot was made for nights like this!
Honorable Mention:
Julius Randle ($6,700): Randle continues to put up big numbers. Last night was his 13th straight game with more than 25 DraftKings points. He has been over 30 in ten of those. Randle has even broken into the 40’s a few times! The big man held his own in two prior contests with Minnesota, putting up 60.25 DraftKings points in just 47 minutes over the prior two games. Randle is priced right for what he can do tonight.
Dark Horses:
Thon Maker ($4,100): Maker has filled in nicely for John Henson, but he still only plays about half the game. The Bucks try to avoid overexposure with the raw youngster by switching him out often. However, Maker has scored in double digits in each of the last two games. If he can start picking up some rebounds, Maker will be a strong bargain while he is starting.
Tyler Zeller ($3,900): Zeller played the other half of the game, and put up better stats than Maker did. Zeller picked up 27.5 DraftKings points in 23 minutes against the Hawks. Denver is much better on the interior, so the Bucks value picks carry a healthy amount of risk here. I wouldn’t be shocked if neither of them hit value.
My pick: Jokic(C), Randle(UTIL); Jokic(C), Towns(UTIL), Randle(F)
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