Fantasy baseball 2018: 5 Innings-eaters to target
By Gavin Tramps
With three points per inning, pitching workhorses are an underrated asset in fantasy baseball.
Even if you draft one of Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Chris Sale or Corey Kluber, you still need to make up the rest of your rotation. Perhaps less exciting innings-eaters with an unsexy strikeout rate is a better option for you rather than the hottest young flamethrower who will be pulled after five innings and limited to 23 starts.
Starters throwing a heavyweight innings workload over a season are a declining breed. The number of starters pitching at least 180 innings has dropped year-on-year.
- 2014: 66 starters
- 2015: 56 starters
- 2016: 45 starters
- 2017: 35 starters
The trend is dramatic, and although it is unlikely to fall by another 10 this season, it is also unlikely to increase.
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So in 2018, there are only likely to be 30-35 heavyweight starters.
We will ignore the pitchers in the top-25 who will be drafted in every league, and instead, we will look at a few of the innings-eaters you can get outside of the first 100 picks.
The first player is arguably the best value pitcher in Washington.
Tanner Roark (264 ADP)
The Nationals have a fantastic rotation this year, but perhaps Tanner Roark offers the best fantasy value for his draft position.
The 31-year-old has made at least 30 starts in three of the last four seasons, only missing out when the Nationals decided to move him to the bullpen.
In 2017, he posted 4.67 ERA in 180.1 innings, although his 4.13 FIP suggests the results were unflattering.
Roark is not has known as a high-strikeout pitcher, but set a career-high last year with 8.20 SO/9 with a double-digit swinging strike rate.
The right-hander’s changeup and curveball both rank in the top-25 in the league, and he will benefit from run support from one of the game’s most potent offensives.
Although this article is specifically for innings-eaters for points leagues, Roark possesses the durability and talent to suggest he needs to be taken earlier than pick 264 in all league formats.
Innings-eaters pitchers on struggling teams
Dan Straily (ADP 346)
The 29-year-old led the league with 33 starts last season, but he also tied for second in the NL with 31 home runs allowed. Dan Straily posted 4.26 ERA and 1.30 WHIP over 181⅔ innings with a strikeout rate of 8.4 SO/9.
Unless the Marlins swing a trade, the right-hander will start the season as their No.1 which will almost guarantee another 30-plus starts, but that will come with probably the lowest level of run support in the league.
He is one of the few remaining assets in Miami, so there is a likelihood that he will be flipped during the season to a contender looking for a durable arm.
Despite only being $180K apart, Straily and the Marlins surprisingly went to arbitration. The pitcher lost and will be paid just under $3.4 million in 2018. Unlike the Blue Jays’ Marcus Stroman who was fuming after he lost his case, Straily appears to have no ill-will having been fascinated by the situation.
"“The whole process was very interesting. As a process-driven individual, I’m always interested in how things work and why things work.”"
Straily has an above-average fastball and slider, which are backed up with a changeup and curveball. His peripherals of a near-elite 75% contact rate and generating 12.2% swinging strike rate, suggest Straily will be a good investment, especially given the lack of enthusiasm to draft anyone on the Marlins.
Marco Estrada (330 ADP)
The Mexican appeared to be trying to single-handedly destroy my pitching ratios last season. He was lit up every time I slotted him into the lineup and then pitched like an ace when he was on my bench.
Marco Estrada endured a season of erratic performances, although some of the issues have been attributed to stress-induced lack of sleep. In his first 10 starts, he posted 3.30 ERA. In the 10 starts from the start of June, his ERA was 8.87. On nine occasions, he failed to get out of the fifth inning, but ten times he threw at least seven innings.
The 34-year-old produced his third straight year of at least 175 innings and he consistently strikes out batters with an 8.50 SO/9 and an impressive 11% swinging strike rate.
Even with the highs and lows of last season, Estrada was able to blow the ball past hitters in the strike zone with an elite 81% Z-Contact rate, ranking him in the top-5 of all starters.
Estrada’s best pitch is his changeup which is one of the best in the game, but it failed him last season. He believes he knows the reason why hitters were taking advantage, which points to an even better 2018.
Milwaukee Brewers’ innings-eater
Zach Davies (ADP 269)
Don’t think you need to draft a low-strikeout pitcher like Zach Davies? You could be missing out on one of the best bargains outside of the top-250 picks.
The 25-year-old threw 191 innings last season over a league-leading 33 starts with 3.90 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. He recorded 17 wins and will be pitching in front of a vastly improved Milwaukee lineup, including Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain who both dramatically upgrade the Brewers’ offense and defense.
Davies possesses an excellent changeup with good command, and the ability to avoid hard contact. In fact, he had the fewest barrels (the latest metric to show good, hard contact) of any starter in the league, minimum 600 batted-ball events.
While striking out less than 6.0 SO/9, the right-hander needs to maintain his command and control to get results, and as such he draws comparisons with Kyle Hendrick and is a dark horse for the Cy Young Award this season.
Jhoulys Chacin (392 ADP)
The Venezuelan threw over 180 innings last season for the Padres with 3.89 ERA and 1.27 WHIP to return excellent value considering he went undrafted in most leagues.
This year, Jhoulys Chacin is still available very late in the draft (after 100 starters have been picked) but he will be playing for a far more competitive team.
The right-hander won 13 games for the Padres last season, and although it is one of the toughest categories to predict, he is in a better position in Milwaukee with their postseason aspirations.
Although the 30-year-old is leaving the pitcher’s paradise of Petco Park, his many years with the Rockies demonstrates the ability to perform in unfavorable hitter’s parks.
Arguably, Chacin has one of the best sliders in the majors and used it to get a large number of swinging strikes, ranking him somewhere between Zack Greinke and Chris Sale.
Expect 32 starts in 2018 with about 8.00 SO/9, with the durability to be a solid rotation piece for deep leagues.
Innings-eaters: Honorable mentions
With the prevalence of elite bullpens shortening the outings, the number of pitchers going deep into starts will continue to decrease. This, coupled with the annually declining quantity of pitchers making 30-plus starts, gives even greater value to innings-eaters.
In the article on groundball pitchers to target, we focused on the Padres’ Clayton Richard (ADP 530) and the Blue Jays’ Marcus Stroman (ADP 109). Both pitchers get an honorable mention here as durable starters expected to throw 180-200 innings.
Although 2017 was the first season that the Royals’ Jason Hammel exceeded 180 innings, he has thrown at least 170 innings in six of the last nine seasons. The 35-year-old offers durable reliability. Ignore his 5.29 ERA, and instead focus on the 4.18 FIP over the last three seasons. It is not elite, but what do you expect from pick outside of the first 500.
The Royals will hope to get 30-plus starts from the right-hander with a strikeout rate in the region of 7.0-8.0 SO/9. There are plenty of leagues where his production will be valuable.
Orioles’ Kevin Gausman is the 52nd starter off the board, but that is probably inflated by name recognition. The former fourth-overall pick from the 2012 draft endured the worst season of his career with 4.68 ERA over 186⅔ innings and 1.50 WHIP.
The 27-year-old led the AL with 34 starts, pitching over 175 innings for the second straight season with a strikeout rate of 8.6 SO/9 (including 10.9% swinging strike rate).
The final pitcher worthy of an honorable mention is the yet-to-be-signed Lance Lynn (200 ADP).
Excluding his injury-hit 2016, Lynn has produced five straight seasons of at least 175 innings and tied for the league-lead with 33 starts last season. He has a great fastball/slider combo and should be a reliable middle-of-the-rotation starter for whichever team signs him.
Final quick take
It is easy to get swept along with the excitement of targeting an expensive, high-strikeout pitcher without paying due attention to the innings-eaters. These pitchers do not have value in all formats, but in leagues that award three points per inning, you are missing out if you ignore pitchers like Roark, Straily, Chacin, Estrada, and Davies.