Josh Allen is going to be an inaccurate bust in NFL

Judging off recent history, Josh Allen is going to be another in a long line of first-round quarterbacks who busted for NFL teams.

This time of year, every draft prospect gets a narrative attached to them, especially quarterbacks.

For some, it’s athleticism without the requisite arm. For others, it’s all about the arm, overlooking the other obvious flaws. One such flaw tends to be inaccuracy, because NFL teams often believe they can fix that problem. They are blinded by the cannon.

This spring, nobody will get that treatment more than Josh Allen. Allen, 21, spent three years at the University of Wyoming, the last two as a starter. Over that span, Allen hit on 56.2 percent of his throws. Compared to the other trio of quarterbacks expected to go in the first round, his rate becomes more disturbing.

Baker Mayfield hit on 68.5 percent of his throws throughout his collegiate career, while Sam Darnold (64.9) and Josh Rosen (60.9) check in significantly higher. Lamar Jackson, who some believe should switch to a receiver, hit on 57 percent of his attempts while at Louisville.

Furthermore, using history as a guide, Allen is almost guaranteed to bust.

From 2000-’14, 40 signal-callers were snatched up with a first-round draft choice. Of that group, 12 had completion rates of 59.9 percent or lower in college.

Only Carson Palmer, Jay Cutler, Matt Ryan and Matthew Stafford ascended above the 60 percent mark for their career in the NFL.

Of that quartet, Ryan and Cutler were the only two below 60 percent in their final college season. However, both were above the 59 percent threshold, while Allen fails to approach even that.

The notion that NFL teams can fix Allen’s accuracy issues is bunk. Of the aforementioned 40 quarterbacks, the average difference between completion rate in college and the pros is -3.01 percent. If Allen follows the average of those men, his professional completion rate will be 53.2.

In 2017, that would have ranked Allen dead last among qualified quarterbacks, trailing DeShone Kizer by 0.4 percent.

Both facts and common sense tell us that Allen won’t succeed at the next level. Despite having a strong arm and prototypical size (6-foot-5 and 233 pounds), the accuracy problems are too large to overcome. There is no recent example of a quarterback who had the inaccuracy issues of Allen who subsequently became a star in the NFL.

To pair down the sample size and skew even more recent, consider that from 2009-’14, 17 quarterbacks went off the board in the first round. Only three have seen their completion rates rise from college to the pro ranks.

In those cases, Ryan Tannehill went up two-tenths of a point (62.5 to 62.7 percent) while Jake Locker raised his percentage from 54.0 to 57.5 before retiring prematurely.

The only quarterback who has seen a significant uptick in that group is Stafford, who shot up from 57.1 percent at the University of Georgia to 62 percent with the Detroit Lions.

If a team is betting on Allen to become Stafford, it’s utilizing hope more than logic. Stafford played in the SEC during its zenith and in his final season at Athens, completed 61.4 percent of his throws. Allen doesn’t compare in both quality of opponent or recent performance.

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Still, some team will draft him in the top 10, polarized by his rocket arm and sturdy stature. They will convince themselves that they have the coaching staff to make the correct adjustments, and that his supporting cast was an overwhelming factor in his struggles.

They will tell themselves everything they need to hear to justify the decision, and like so many before them, they will be wrong.