NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Thursday February 22
Welcome to the Thursday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Welcome back all you NBA DFS fans from the NBA All Star Break as you hopefully enjoyed some time away from the game and DFS grind and are ready to start the second half of the season off with a bang. Personally having a few days off from research, writing and tracking news in the minutes before lock was a nice break but it also gave me time to reflect on the first half of the season, take some time to clear my head and even got to try out some Fantasy Hockey to help scratch my DFS itch.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Where to start on this slate:
It feels so damn good to sit back down and write about NBA DFS and frankly this first slate after the break is perfect for my taste as we get six games to break down which gives us enough games to differentiate but not too many where the sheer variance of outcomes leaves it near impossible to manage.
I am writing this article early on Wednesday morning to give you all a first look as I know we are all itching to get back to NBA DFS but keep in mind things will change (right up to and maybe even after lock) so do not get too married to your line-ups this far in advance. We are thankfully past the break and the trade deadline so rotations should become a bit more clear and at least initially we should see far less random rest days!
Over the last two seasons, in five games against the Wizards, here are the average numbers for King James: 64 fantasy points, 32 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists, 1.4 steals, 1.6 blocks, 2.6 3PM.
The first thing that stood out to me on this slate when I started to break it down was that we have LeBron James ($21.3K on FantasyDraft and $11.6K on FanDuel) against the Wizards. There are very few match-ups from a DFS perspective that stand out at first blush if you have played this game for any period of time as you know there are certain match-ups where players tend to shine and we have seen repeatedly over the last two years that this spot for LeBron is one that he just seems to obliterate.
Over the last two seasons, in five games against the Wizards, here are the average numbers for King James: 64 fantasy points, 32 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists, 1.4 steals, 1.6 blocks, 2.6 3PM. Earlier this season, LeBron torched the Wizards for 93 fantasy points and after a slow start to the year I personally am starting to put LeBron in fade at your own risk territory when it comes to DFS.
In the three games since the trade deadline, LeBron is back to putting up massive numbers with 60+ fantasy points in two of his three games with his only “down” game being a 55 fantasy point outing versus the Celtics where he played just 27 minutes due to the blow-out. Essentially the new look Cavaliers have re-introduced a 60 point floor to LeBron who is coming off an All-Star Game MVP performance and now will take the court in the national T.V. game right out of the break!
In the three games with his new teammates, LeBron is back to being the dominant DFS performer we missed out in earlier this season as he is sporting a 37% usage rate and putting up nearly 1.7 FP/M over these first few games with his new squad.
One of the things I noticed in looking at my roster builds in the first half the season was that I tended to go more Stars/Scrubs as a tournament focused player and honestly I wanted to come out of the gate and try a more balanced mindset. However this slate with LeBron is setting up as one of those nights where I think you have to find a way to get to him as he gives you an insanely high floor as evidenced by his recent performance and history versus the Wizards and the clear slate breaking upside that could leave you on the outside looking in if you chose to fade him.
NBA DFS – Finding a Core Build:
One of the benefits of getting this All-Star Break is that we get a few days to digest this first slate back as most sites have had the slate/pricing up for a few days and to be honest, initially I was unsure if there was a must have game I needed to focus my core build around. I knew I wanted LeBron and thought about stacking around him and someone like Bradley Beal on the other side but I wasn’t in love with chasing the fringe Cavaliers players who are all taking away pieces of each other’s usage.
News broke on Tuesday evening that the Chicago Bulls would be pushing towards a youth movement right out of the gate and we got our first big piece of news to react to as players like Justin Holiday and Robin Lopez will move to the bench, Jerian Grant will be taken out of the rotation and David Nwaba and Cristiano Felicio will take over starting duties.
Paxson said Felicio and Nwaba will start alongside Dunn, LaVine and Markkanen and Grant out of rotation with Payne as backup PG.
— K.C. Johnson (@KCJHoop) February 20, 2018
There is a lot to break down here so let’s start with the “new” news as David Nwaba ($6.8K) and Cristiano Felicio ($6.3K) become the chalk value plays of the slate with their new starting roles and bargain basement prices. Nwaba is the easier one to get a read on as we at least have a three game sample size of starts where he has performed well – putting up 20+ fantasy points in all three games, averaging 27 fantasy points over those three starts which would more than meet/exceed value in any/all DFS formats.
Felicio is a total wild card as he has played just over 12 minutes per game and has only played over 20 minutes in one game this entire season while starting a whopping four games over his NBA career. Outside of the fact he’s guaranteed a starting role (for tonight anyways) and we can expect the Bulls to give him signficant run down the stretch on the heels of a four-year, $72 million dollar contract this off-season, we really have very little to go on but the role/price point make him an intriguing point per dollar play that will open up a ton of salary room across the rest of your roster!
Cristiano Felicio's Per 36 minute averages in his career: 11 points, 10.2 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 0.7 steals & 0.7 blocks. https://t.co/ARzVarhJHH
— Allan Lem (@AllanLemDFS) February 20, 2018
Perhaps the biggest DFS impact from this news sits on the other side of this game as Joel Embiid ($17.5K) vaults to the top of my player pool with the news that Felicio will be starting. Out of 72 qualified centers, do you want to guess where the new Bulls starting center ranks in terms of DRPM (defensive real plus/minus)? Got your guess? Ok – how about dead flipping last – 72 out of 72.
The Bulls were already a team that struggled on the interior, especially in limiting rebounds, so this move to Felicio could align with a massive outing from Embid on Thursday. This Sixers/Bulls game has the second fastest projected pace on the slate (behind Golden State/Clippers) so there is obvious merit to stacking around this game especially if you intend to use the value plays on the Bulls side. The difficult part for me is figuring out if we can utilize any other Sixers players here tonight as we have seen all season long that when Embiid is on the court he negatively affects the usage and FP/M output of all his teammates. In fact over the last month, not a single starter sees an uptick in usage with Embiid on the court and only Ben Simmons and J.J. Redick keep neutral FP/M outputs.
Rather than build around Embiid, we may want to expand our Bulls exposure specifically to the back-court of Kris Dunn ($11.4K) and Zach LaVine ($12.5K) as Chicago sees the second largest pace boost of any team on this slate. LaVine is one of my favorite plays on this slate after resting through the ASB as he has put up 33+ fantasy points in five of his last six games while Dunn is no longer expected to be on a minutes limit although the Bulls have said they will be “smart” with his minutes. There is certainly risk to playing Dunn right out the gate here but the upside at this price point and in a pace-up spot like this make him an interesting buy low option as his price will only rise from here!
NBA DFS – Pivot Plays:
Much like my feeling with Kris Dunn right out of the extended break, this feels like the perfect buy-low time to jump on D’Angelo Russell ($11.9K) who has played 24, 28 and 31 minutes in his three previous games before the All-Star Break while logging 35 and 42 fantasy points in two of those outings. In those three games what really has stood out to me is the usage, which is back to early season levels, as Russell is sporting a 32% usage rate while putting up 1.23 FP/M.
Based off the tweet below from the NY Post’s Brian Lewis, it looks like Brooklyn coach Kenny Atkinson could be ready to change-up the starting line-up which could mean re-inserting Russell back with the starting unit. If Russell is playing anywhere near 30 minutes with his usage rate he becomes an automatic play for me at this price point and on FanDuel where he is SG eligible he is a lock and load for me at only $6.1K. Keep an eye on the news here for Brooklyn heading into Thursday’s game!
Kenny Atkinson said he's considering lineup & rotation changes to break this 7-game skid: "We’re in a rut right now. I want to continue on an upward swing, not the downward swing we’re on.” #Nets
— Brian Lewis (@NYPost_Lewis) February 20, 2018
One spot to watch heading into Thursday is how the Orlando Magic will take the court as it is expected that Nikola Vucevic and Aaron Gordon will return to the line-up which would likely crush the value of guys like Mario Hezonja and Bismack Biyombo. One player to keep an eye on here is D.J. Augustin who at only $5.4K on FanDuel and $9.9K on FantasyDraft would now have the ability to run an offense with a full complement of weapons against a Knicks team ranked 27th in DvP versus the PG position!
On a site like FanDuel where we can only roster one Center it will be hard to convince me away from Joel Embiid but on FantasyDraft where we can roster multiple centers, I love this spot for Steven Adams ($12.2K) who will take on a Kings team he has dropped 36 and 34 fantasy points against already this season.
NBA DFS – Slate Overview and Sample Line-Up
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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FanDuel NBA DFS Sample Line-Up:
PG: Kris Dunn ($6,400)
PG: D.J. Augustin ($5,400)
SG: Zach LaVine ($7,100)
SG: D’Angelo Russell ($6,100)
SF: LeBron James ($11,600)
SF: David Nwaba ($3,500)
PF: Larry Nance Jr. ($5,600)
PF: Jeff Green ($3,900)
C: Joel Embiid ($10,200)
Slate Overview: Writing an NBA DFS article two days in advance in probably a bit crazy but I think it is helpful to get a first look into the slate so we can start to ease back into our routine as DFS players. For me personally, I am going into this slate with the mindset that I want to find ways to work LeBron and Embiid into my builds and we know already that the Bulls value will give us the ability to do just that. I want to keep an eye on the Nets news specifically as we could see Russell back in the starting line-up and it will be interesting to see if Kenny Atkinson decides to run him alongside Spencer Dinwidde and utilize him as more of a #2 guard. I will update my thoughts on Twitter @2LockSports as we head up to lock so please do not hesitate to reach out with questions or comments as we gear up for the second half of the NBA season!
Next: How the Cavaliers deals shake up the fantasy landscape?
Best of luck in your NBA DFS contests across FantasyDraft and FanDuel and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!