DraftKings NBA Picks February 24: Ride Westbrook in marquee match
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks February 24: Ride Westbrook in marquee match
Hello all you loyal readers. I am back after a hiatus yesterday in which I spent 21 of the 24 hours in bed and called in sick to work for the first time in 17 years. Yes, this was a nasty virus. I didn’t even make an attempt yesterday. I am feeling a little better today, and can at least stay awake for a little while, so let’s knock out that horse like Alex Karras did in Blazing Saddles!
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The second half continues its flurry to open with an eight game Saturday. For DraftKings purposes, it is only seven with the 5pm Eastern tip of the Magic-Sixers game left out. The highlight is the Thunder-Warriors in Oakland. The early returns on Butler’s injury seem positive, but I would still bet he misses tonight at the very least. Thankfully, it looked worse than it actually was. That hasn’t always been the case this year. What that will do is open up a ton of value!
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Point Guards:
Best Bets:
Russell Westbrook ($11,600): Westbrook comes up big in big games. Just look at his performances against the Cavs this year. Golden State has been no different. Westbrook has 124.75 DraftKings points in just 73 minutes against the Warriors this year. He looks to be worth this outlandish price tonight.
Damian Lillard ($9,800): Payton has given the Suns an offensive burst, but his defense is no better than what they had before. That means that the 151.75 DraftKings points that Lillard has in the first three games still translate even with a new point guard. Lillard is a strong plan B if you fade Westbrook tonight.
Honorable Mention:
Elfrid Payton ($7,100): It takes a leap of faith to believe in Payton here. After all, he faced Portland twice while with the Magic and posted only 40.75 points in 58 minutes. However, his performance with the Suns has been impressive. He fits the team and vice versa. You would think that Payton would fare better with the Suns than he did against Portland than earlier in the year. The question is how much better? Can he really hit 35 DraftKings points against them? That could be a tall order.
Jeff Teague ($6,700): I don’t really trust the Chicago guard situation right now, but I do trust playing against them. They are still being super cautious with Kris Dunn for good reason. I know this is a revenge game for Dunn, but I don’t know that he plays enough to take full advantage of it given the price hike that he has already incurred for it. Teague, who has four straight games of more than 5x value, seems the safer pick.
Ricky Rubio ($6,100): Rubio didn’t seem limited last night, but make sure that nothing comes out before tip about his status. The Jazz may be careful with him in a back to back despite just having a week off for the All Star Break. Without limitations, Rubio is an elite play for this price. He put up 40 DraftKings points in the first meeting against Dallas.
Dark Horses:
De’Aaron Fox ($5,800): Fox missed Thursday’s game with a bout of pink eye, so he is still questionable here. If you don’t hear anything from the Kings, I would play it safe and avoid Fox. If you are really brave, you could sneak in Garrett Temple in the off chance that Fox doesn’t play. He was huge on Thursday!
Terry Rozier ($5,400): Rozier has been very close to Kyrie’s production against the Knicks, and he is about 60% of the price. He still plays enough to put up solid numbers, but you just never know who is going to throw in the most for Boston. Take a gander at who the leading scorer was in the first half last night. Kyrie? Nope. Morris? Strike two. Smart? Nope. It was none other than Daniel Theis. Only play value plays for the Celtics right now. Irving often isn’t the center of the team enough to hit value.
Tyler Johnson ($4,500): Johnson continues to play close to starter’s minutes off of the bench at a bench price. He is capable of big scoring outbursts. Evans will be busy with Dragic most of the time leaving Johnson open for some good shots against the weak wings of the Grizz. Johnson is a pretty strong value play tonight.
My pick: Westbrook(PG), Johnson(G); Lillard(PG)
Shooting Guards:
Best Bets:
Jimmy Butler ($10,200): I will admit that it’s pretty hard to pay this much for Butler on a loaded team. However, in the first meeting, the Timberwolves were content to let him beat on his old team for 63.25 DraftKings points. Another huge night could be in store for Butler. Big enough for me to consider using him here at this price. EDIT: I’m no doctor, but after seeing that Butler injury last night, I am guessing that he is going to be out for a while. Keep an eye on that!
Donovan Mitchell ($8,000): It doesn’t really matter which guard slot Mitchell plays at. He gets results. Mitchell has hoisted at least 20 shots in five straight games. He is the offense right now, even with Rubio back. The presence of Rubio will cut into his action a bit, but not enough to move off of him just yet.
Honorable Mention:
C.J. McCollum ($7,700): First the good news: McCollum has 89.5 DraftKings points in 71 minutes in the first two games against the Suns. Now the bad news: McCollum has only hit 5x value once in eight February games. There is potential here, but can he get back on track enough from the field to hit the magic number tonight?
Zach LaVine ($7,500): LaVine partook in the revenge festivities in the first game against Minnesota as well. He put up 46.75 DraftKings points in 33 minutes against the team that drafted him. The Bulls are loaded at the guard slots, especially with them giving extended run to Nwaba. So far that has not come at LaVine’s expense, nor should it. He is safe in revenge round part deux.
Devin Booker ($7,400): This one surprised me because I know that McCollum is a solid defender. However, Booker has averaged 48.9 DraftKings points in three games against Portland this year. For this price, Booker is worth a look. He has spent a lot of time this season north of $9,000. Now he is only $300 more than Payton for this one.
Dark Horses:
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($5,500): With his legal issues now behind him, KCP is on some kind of roll lately. He has averaged 35.9 DraftKings points over the last five games. KCP is averaging 29.4 per game in two games against the Kings so far this season. He has the potential for another night in the mid 30’s.
David Nwaba ($4,600): This was going to come with massive ownership anyway, but it will be even larger now with Butler out. Nwaba’s first start yielded 40.25 DraftKings points for those of us that switched him in on Thursday. Expect something well over 8x value again tonight.
Jamal Crawford ($3,700): Crawford ended up playing half the game last night and getting a great return on his price after Butler left the game. I don’t know if this is going to be a long-term thing, but regardless, Butler is more than likely out tonight. That leaves Crawford as an excellent value potential tonight.
My pick: Nwaba(SG); McCollum(SG), Nwaba(G)
Small Forwards:
Best Bets:
Paul George ($9,300): KD hasn’t busted up the Thunder like Russ has the Warriors. George has gotten in on the action as well, putting up 112.5 DraftKings points in just 75 minutes against Golden State this season. The two man gang has come up big against the best in the West this season. Stack for maximum results!
Michael Beasley ($6,300): Beastley announced his arrival back to fantasy relevance with a December destruction of Boston. That one really came out of nowhere. I doubt that happens again with Beasley no longer a secret. However, Beastley has at least 5x value in four of the last five games. He has been a strong contributor with Porzingis sidelined.
Honorable Mention:
Andrew Wiggins ($6,200): I am all over Wiggy tonight. Every lineup I make, he will be in. Wiggins has been a beast with Butler out. This will be no exception. He is sorely underpriced for what he is going to do. However, everyone else knows this too. Make sure you gain separation elsewhere. Nwaba and Wiggins are likely going to be at least 50% owned.
Josh Jackson ($5,600): Jackson is getting more minutes even with Warren and Booker back in the starting lineup, but his production has been sporadic. This is a tough place for me to use him, or Warren for that matter. Portland is a solid defense, and both of the starting guards are now shoot-first players. Still, Jackson has significant upside and could be worth a look in GPP formats. We have seen him over 30 several times this year.
Dark Horses:
Buddy Hield ($5,200): Ugh….I hate this Sacramento situation. I talk up Bogdanvoic, and Hield shoots circles around him. The fact remains that Hield is one of the biggest boom or bust propositions I have ever seen, and I have been playing DFS for almost four years now. If you think the Kings keep giving him run, the Lakers are a great opponent to deploy him against. Just don’t pin yourself into a corner by using Bogdanovic as well.
Justin Jackson ($4,000): He is a rookie, so the production remains sporadic, but the minutes are there for Jackson. He doesn’t have to fight for them anymore. He will have to tangle with Ingram a lot in this game, who is likely the Lakers’ best defender. But still, this is a low price for 30 minutes per game. There is still some value here.
Nemanja Bjelica ($3,400): I have a feeling that the Timberwolves will elect to start Bjelica and bring the veterans Crawford and Muhammad off of the bench. Just like Jackson, this is a fantastic bargain for the amount on minutes that Bjelica will play. He put up 21 DraftKings points in 21 minutes last night, and that was with Butler still playing 25 minutes. There is significant upside here.
My pick: Wiggins(SF), George(PF), Hield(F), Bjelica(UTIL); Wiggins(SF), Bjelica(F)
Power Forwards:
Best Bets:
Draymond Green ($7,800): Green has struggled against the Thunder some this year, but he is on one of his hot streaks right now. Green now has scored in double figures in four straight, with at least six assists and rebounds to go along with that. Green is playing at a high level right now, and his price is still low enough that he is worth using to see if he can keep this kind of production up.
Julius Randle ($7,400): If Randle were starting, his price would be five digits. He is just destroying people right now. The Kings are one of them. Randle has 80.5 DraftKings points in just 59 minutes against the Kings this year. There is really no reason not to use Randle right now. He is easily the Lakers’ most consistent producer for DFS purposes.
Honorable Mention:
Zach Randolph ($6,300): Keep a close eye on the status of Skal Labissiere going into this one. Randolph dropped 50 DraftKings points on Thursday with Skal coming off the bench. The bad part about this is that we likely will not have the Kings starters by the time the full lineup locks. That makes Randolph a risky play, and Skal an interesting dart throw.
Dwight Powell ($5,700): Powell was pushed around by the Lakers last night, but he did play well against Utah in his first game against them. Powell went for 27 DraftKings points in 25 minutes against the Jazz earlier this year. Last night’s poor performance was only Powell’s second game under 30 since the beginning of February. I think he gets back on track here.
Dark Horses:
Skal Labissiere ($4,600): Labissiere looked a little cold in his return on Thursday, but he still played 26 minutes. The Kings are going to insert him back into the starting lineup at some point. While that may not be tonight, I still think that he plays enough minutes to warrant using him. Skal is certainly a safer, but lower ceiling, option than Randolph.
Daniel Theis ($3,500): Thies’ performance last night virtually assures that he wont go unnoticed tonight, but temper your enthusiasm. Theis has only scored in double figures in consecutive games once all season. The chances of a repeat are unlikely, but this is a solid matchup against the Knicks.
My pick: N/A; Randle(PF), Powell(UTIL)
Center:
Best Bets:
Rudy Gobert ($7,300): Towns in tempting, but Robin Lopez is still a good defender. I would much rather roll with Rudy at $2,500 less. Gobert dominated Dallas in the first meeting, racking up 57 DraftKings points in that one. Gobert has not had a dominant game since his return, but this easily presents his best opportunity to do so.
Steven Adams ($6,900): Adams has been strong almost all season with a couple of exceptions. The Warriors were not one of those. With Draymond occupied elsewhere, Adams put up 66 DraftKings points in two games against the Champs. That would leave him a little under value, but Adams has more than 45 DraftKings points in two of the last three games. The other? A clunker against Memphis with just 18.5, one of his lowest totals of the year.
Honorable Mention:
Enes Kanter ($6,800): Kanter only played 21 minutes on Thursday, but he still had his 12th straight double-double. He has been a monster for the Knicks with Porzingis out. That will continue, and while Monroe may provide a little more resistance than he is used to from Boston, Kanter still has 114 DraftKings points in 79 minutes against Boston this year. He is still a strong play.
Jusuf Nurkic ($6,500): Nurkic still doesn’t play as many minutes as you would expect in a relatively weak Portland frontcourt, but this is a very good matchup against the Suns. However, that hasn’t meant a whole lot so far. In three games against Phoenix so far, Nurkic has only averaged 27.6 DraftKings points in 24 minutes. That makes him too much of a risk for me.
Willie Cauley-Stein ($6,200): WCS has 57 DraftKings points in 56 minutes against the Lakers this year. The caveat here is that Cauley-Stein is still too inconsistent offensively to rely on on a nightly basis. He is always a bit of a risk, but this is a solid enough matchup to roll him out there.
Dark Horses:
Alex Len ($5,100): Could a change be on the horizon? Len has put up 76 DraftKings points in the last two games with Tyson Chandler out. This is a team that has no shot this year. They may decide that they are going to go the way of the Kings and play the youngsters. Of course, for the Kings, that likely makes him a worse team. I’m not sure it does for the Suns. If Chandler is out, I definitely want Len. He is tentatively listed as questionable, but Chandler was doubtful last night. I doubt he plays.
David West ($3,800): Don’t look now, but West has better than 5x value in five of the last six games. All that despite not playing more than 18 minutes in any of those games. West is dynamite off of the Warriors bench, but that also serves to cap his upside. Still, if you need to go cheap, keep in mind that he has averaged 22.8 DraftKings points per game in about 16 minutes in that stretch. That still makes West a nice value.
My pick: Len(C), Len(C)
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