DraftKings Early NBA Picks February 25: Believe in the Brow
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings Early NBA Picks February 25: Believe in the Brow
The DraftKings tournaments are split up into two tournaments for the five games today. Well, three if you count the showdown for the noon eastern tip of Detroit and Charlotte. I will be focusing on the classic versions of the game. Well, classic is misleading. If DraftKings were truly going with the “classic” tournament, they would bring back what truly set them apart in the DFS field in the first place: late swap!
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The money line last night was at 266.75 DraftKings points. One lineup failed because of the horrible game from Paul George. The other failed by just 3.75 points. The only thing I could have done differently was to use someone besides Jarrell Martin.
The winning lineup was at 347.75 DraftKings points. He built around Lillard and Booker, and got huge value from a scantly owned Willie Cauley-Stein and KCP.
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Point Guards:
Best Bet:
Eric Bledsoe ($6,900): There isn’t one really elite option at the point today, so it may be prudent to go for consistency. That’s where Bledsoe comes in. Bledsoe has at least 5x value in seven straight games. He came up just short in his first tilt with the Pelicans this season, but the fact remains that New Orleans is pretty lousy defending the perimeter. There is value to be had here at a reasonable price.
Honorable Mention:
DeJounte Murray ($5,500): Murray had himself a nice game against Cleveland in the first meeting. Murray picked up 49.5 DraftKings points in that one. Now, that isn’t going to happen again with George Hill around, but Murray could still have himself a plenty good enough game here. There are a lot of guards in the San Antonio stables, but Murray is at least the starter. That caps his upside, but he is still only $5,500. What do you expect?
Patty Mills ($4,600): This is only in play if Danny Green is out again. Mills came up huge with Green out on Friday. Keep an eye on the status of Green for this one. Being that both games start within a half hour of each other, we should have all four starting lineups before lock hits.
Dark Horses:
George Hill ($4,500): Hill may finally be adjusting to his new team, putting up 29 DraftKings points against Memphis on Friday. The Spurs are decent against the point, but not great. On top of that, Hill only needs 22.5 DraftKings points to hit value today. His first meeting with the Spurs while a member of the Kings yielded 23.
Tony Parker ($4,300): Parker is more of a cash game staple at this point in his career, but there isn’t much difference between GPP and cash lineups on this small of a slate. We take value wherever we can get it, even if it comes with no upside. Parker has been playing about half the game and putting up 26 DraftKings points per game lately. That’s good at this price!
My pick: Murray(PG), Parker(G); N/A
Shooting Guards:
Best Bets:
Jrue Holiday ($7,800): Holiday has three straight games with more than 49 DraftKings points. That makes him a huge value right now. Most DFS players expected this immediately after Boogie went down. It took some time to come to fruition, but Holiday is arguably the most consistent scorer on this team right now. On top of that, he is priced a couple of notches below elite. Well, he is elite today!
Honorable Mention:
Khris Middleton ($6,700): Most slates this small see money lines at less than 250, so 5x value isn’t always the target on days like this. You are looking at who can give you the most points at a position. I think many will use Jrue at point, which means that Middleton is easily the best option left here. He doesn’t always hit 5x value, but he almost always hits 30 DraftKings points. No one else below him can say that.
Jordan Clarkson ($4,800): Clarkson’s production has been sporadic since landing in Cleveland, which really should come as no surprise. His minutes aren’t down significantly, but they are down enough to make nights when he isn’t hitting his shots stand out more. Still, on a light slate like this, Clarkson is capable of getting hot and putting your lineup over the top. The Cavs clearly expect him to shoot when he is on the court, so the opportunities are there.
Dark Horses:
J.R. Smith ($4,400): Don’t be fooled by Smith’s horrid line on Friday. That was because of foul trouble that he played only 15 minutes, not some kind of changing of the guard. Smith is capable of putting up scores in the 30’s, but his production is so inconsistent that he is only a cash game dart throw at this point.
Jason Terry ($3,000): The Bucks have been leaning on Terry more for timely shooting off the bench. He was instrumental in Milwaukee’s overtime victory over the Raptors on Friday, putting up a season high 14 points and 22 DraftKings points. Expect the Bucks to look for Terry whenever they need a boost until he cools off.
My pick: Holiday(SG), Middleton(SF); Holiday(PG), Smith(G), Terry(UTIL)
Small Forwards:
Best Bet:
LeBron James ($11,200): First thing first: James likely isn’t going to hit value tonight. He was at 50.25 in the first meeting with the Spurs. James has actually hit value in four of the last five games at this price. His production has been good enough to make it worth paying up for the King, but I don’t see a really huge day in store for him.
Honorable Mention:
Kyle Anderson ($4,900): Unless you plan on using MIddleton at SF, there is a massive dropoff after LeBron today. That’s another reason to pay for him. Anderson is one of the most maddening DFS players around. He has good rebounding and assist totals, but his scoring has ranged from zero to 20 all in the span of the last four games. Good luck!
Rodney Hood ($4,500): Hood’s bench role is clearly defined, which severely limits his value. However, Cleveland also expects him to shoot when out there. Hood sees enough shots to keep his value solid. Whether he hits them or not is another question.
Dark Horses:
Jabari Parker ($4,000): Parker is starting to get back into the swing of things here, but the Bucks are still being very careful with him. Parker still has not played more than 20 minutes in a game, and that likely wont happen today. That said, Parker has hit value in each of the last two games, meaning that he and the team are more comfortable with each other. His upside is clearly capped, but Parker is a solid value play finally.
Davis Bertans ($4,000): This is a really tough one. Despite Bertans playing very well with Aldridge out before the break, Bertans played just 14 minutes with LMA and Gay back on the court. His value may or may not have disappeared. You never know with the Spurs. However, that makes Bertans a massive risk.
My pick: Hood(F); Parker(F)
Power Forwards:
Best Bets:
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,700): Giannis shredded the Pelicans for 60.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting, but there are several good options here. That said, You can play Giannis at the really weak SF position and completely fade LeBron. LeBron has a better floor, but the ceiling is definitely higher on Giannis today with the King playing the Spurs.
LaMarcus Aldridge ($8,600): If the Spurs plan on going to the playoffs again, they are going to have to ride Aldridge to do it with Kawhi Leonard shut down. Aldridge dominated Denver for 50.75 DraftKings points on Friday. He put up 49.5 in the first game against Cleveland, with Kevin Love on the court. Expect another strong showing from LMA this afternoon.
Honorable Mention:
Nikola Mirotic ($6,300): Mirotic, one way or the other, may decide who wins the GPP today. He has been anywhere from 21 to 59 DraftKings points in his five games with the Pelicans. That huge upside is going to make him very popular today, but Mirotic could also send you flying down the leaderboard in a hurry if his shot isn’t falling or Jrue gets really hot again.
Dark Horses:
Larry Nance Jr. ($5,100): Nance had his best game with his new team against Memphis on Friday. How much longer are Cavs going to continue bringing Nance off the bench? He would seem to be the spark they covet right now. At any rate, Nance’s stock is on the rise, and with Cleveland facing another big team in the Spurs today, expect Nance on the court more often than not.
Cheick Diallo ($3,100): That’s the fun thing about short slates: highlighting those that are usually afterthoughts. Quietly, Diallo has put up seven straight games with double figure DraftKings points. The emergence of Okafor has muddled things up for Diallo, but the Pelicans keep getting him some court time. There isn’t a lot for upside here, but he can get you somewhere in the teens for very cheap.
My pick: Mirotic(PF); Antetokounmpo(SF), Nance(UTIL)
Center:
Best Bet:
Anthony Davis ($11,500): Davis has put up almost unbelievable numbers lately. Davis has four straight games of over 60 DraftKings points. Not impressed? How about this: He has one in the 60’s, one on the 70’s, one in the 80’s. and one on the 90’s. Don’t count out the chance that he hits the century mark against the Bucks weak front today.
Honorable Mention:
Pau Gasol ($5,900): Gasol isn’t dominant anymore, but he is far from washed up either. The Cavs still have issues up front, especially with Love out. There is some value here today with Gasol. He still had a good game alongside Aldridge’s big one on Friday. It’s not unfair to expect it again.
John Henson ($4,700): Henson is nothing special, but he is capable. Offensively, anyway. The Bucks are still giving solid minutes to Thon Maker, but I definitely think they are going to need Henson to put up at least some of a fight against Brow. Henson is a solid value pick here.
Dark Horse:
Emeka Okafor ($3,400): Okafor has never been an offensive force, but defensively, he is exactly what the Pelicans need. Which is why he is starting for them ahead of Mirotic. His lack of offense makes him a guy with limited upside, but Okafor has hit value in four of his five games in a Pelicans uniform. Don’t overlook this obvious value!
My pick: Davis(C), Okafor(UTIL); Davis(PF), Okafor(C)
Next: Late Slate DraftKings NBA Picks
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