DraftKings Late NBA Picks February 25: Go cheaper for Embiid

LAS VEGAS, NV – OCTOBER 08: Willie Cauley-Stein #00 of the Sacramento Kings grabs a rebound against the Los Angeles Lakers during their preseason game at T-Mobile Arena on October 8, 2017 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Los Angeles won 75-69. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images) /

DraftKings Late NBA Picks February 25: Go cheaper for Embiid

The DraftKings tournaments are split up into two tournaments for the five games today. The early games had most of the star power, but it’s not like the night games are terrible! There are more mid-range options on this slate with a couple of stars for good measure.

Point Guards:

Best Bet:

Bradley Beal ($8,600): No part of me trusts Chris Paul with Harden at full strength. The instances in which Paul has hit value with Harden receiving a full compliment of minutes you can count on one hand. Beal has been running the point more with Wall out. The uptick in assists and a little more of the scoring load makes Beal an elite option at this price. Philadelphia has allowed 42.1 DraftKings points per game in three games to Beal this year. Expect upwards of that tonight without Wall around.

Honorable Mention:

Jamal Murray ($5,900): Murray is a DFS powder keg. He is very inconsistent, but he is capable of dropping 40 or 50 in any given night. This kind of upside keeps him a DFS favorite, but don’t touch him in cash games. He can win you a lot…..or lose you a lot. There really is no in between.

Tomas Satoransky ($5,700): Satoransky had his worst game filling in for John Wall against Charlotte on Friday. That may be a little cause for concern, but the minutes are there for Satoransky, and he still handles the ball enough to give him value even if nothing else is working for him. This is a solid matchup, so I expect him back on track tonight.

Dark Horses:

T.J. McConnell ($4,200): That is now three straight bad games for McConnell, but he still sees enough minutes to think that he can break out of this rough patch against a team missing its starting point guard. You are going to have to take risks to set yourself apart in this small of a tournament. We know that McConnell is capable of big numbers from time to time, and his price is really cheap in the depths of his slump.

Devin Harris ($3,600): Despite an easier path to playing time in Denver, Harris has seen little to no uptick in production. However, it has stabilized his production. We know what to expect from Harris in Denver, which is about 14-18 DraftKings points per game. That makes him a decent DFS punt, but he still has no upside.

My pick: Satoransky(PG), Beal(SG), McConnell(G)

LOS ANGELES, CA – FEBRUARY 17: James Harden #13 of Team Stephen during practice at the Verizon Up Arena at LACC on February 17, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images) /

Shooting Guards:

Best Bet:

James Harden ($11,000): You would think that Harden is automatic on a short slate, but he has three things working against him tonight. First off, Denver has allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing shooting guards on the season. That is not a fluke. Second, Harden’s production also suffers a bit with Paul on the floor. And finally, The Beard has only 96.25 DraftKings points in 59 minutes against Denver this year. That tells us two things. One, that Denver defensive stat is not an anomaly, and that the first two games of this series were blowouts. You wont find Harden in my lineups tonight, so that likely means he will go off.

Honorable Mention:

Gary Harris ($5,600): Harris is still seeing big minutes, but his production does fluctuate some. Murray and Barton are the top two exterior options, but there is no shortage of shots on this team. Denver scores a whole lot of points. Harris has struggled in two games against Houston this year though, so his hitting 30 for the third straight game is not a given.

J.J. Redick ($5,100): Redick has not hit value in two tries against the Wizards this year, and he likely wont again. That said, Redick is so consistent that he is almost never below 20 DraftKings points. That makes him more of a cash game commodity on a short slate, but if you are looking for consistency, here it is.

Dark Horse:

Jodie Meeks ($3,500): I literally hate every SG option tonight except for Beal. This is such a weak position. However, if you are looking for value, Meeks is maybe the only place to find it here. Meeks has been a solid scorer off the bench with more minutes available with Wall out. That said, The Wizards have plenty of guys that can play the two, so his minutes are not guaranteed.

My pick: N/A

NEW YORK, NY – JANUARY 31: Ben Simmons #25 of the Philadelphia 76ers reaches for the ball against the Brooklyn Nets in the first quarter during their game at Barclays Center on January 31, 2018 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City. (Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images) /

Small Forwards:

Best Bet:

Ben Simmons ($8,900): Simmons has put up 151 DraftKings points in three games against the Wizards this year. They haven’t quite figured him out yet. Simmons’ stock was trending way up until a terrible game against Orlando last night. Use that blip on the radar to use Simmons with lower ownership. I expect him back on track against Washington.

Honorable Mention:

Otto Porter ($6,600): Porter went cold and appeared to be losing his key role in the offense in a late January slump, but Porter has now put up at least 30 DraftKings points in nine of the last ten games. He is the go-to scorer behind Beal with Wall out. The value is definitely there against the Sixers.

Will Barton ($6,300): Barton continues to outdo Harris in nearly every game. Of course, Harris does have a higher floor. Like I said earlier, there is no shortage of outside shots available shots for the Nuggets this year, but Barton could have some issues with Ariza guarding him.

Dark Horses:

Robert Covington ($4,900): I take full blame for this one. I pulled off a nice deal to bring in Covington in one of my cats leagues, and he has been cold ever since. That said, he has done well against Washington this year. There are still cautionary signs abound here, such as Covington’s cold shooting pretty much making him an afterthought on offense. The minutes are still there though, so he could be worth a look on this short slate.

Trevor Ariza ($4,700): Ariza showed no ill effects in his return on Friday. I don’t really think he was on a minutes limit since that game got out of hand, which is good news. Also good news is the fact that Ariza put up 36.5 DraftKings points in his only game against Denver. Enjoy Ariza’s depressed post injury price here. He could be a great value tonight.

My pick: Simmons(SF), Ariza(F)

WASHINGTON, DC – JANUARY 15: Markieff Morris #5 of the Washington Wizards crashes into the stands against the Milwaukee Bucks during the first half at Capital One Arena on January 15, 2018 in Washington, DC (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images) /

Power Forwards:

Best Bet:

Dario Saric ($6,000): Saric is a tough sell tonight due to his cold spell since the break and his poor performance against Washington this year. However, he is always a guy to keep an eye on. Saric is good at every aspect of the game, giving him a solid floor. I like him better in cash games against the Wizards tonight, but on a short slate, he is still capable of putting up big numbers. DFS players love these types.

Honorable Mention:

Wilson Chandler ($5,200): Chandler has been amazing lately, taking away all of the value of Trey Lyles while doing everything Lyles was doing as a starter and more. Chandler is also priced the same. He is one of those great value plays because Chandler is capable of putting up huge numbers. Don’t expect that against a Houston team that has given power forwards fits, but 5x value is still very likely.

Markieff Morris ($5,000): I am surprised that Morris is still priced in this range because he has between 25 and 38 DraftKings points in each of his last 11 games. That makes him a minimum 5x value, which is huge on a short slate. Play Morris in all formats.

Dark Horse:

Ryan Anderson ($4,200): Value is tough to come by tonight. The only suitable option here is a streaky shooter who has not had a hot streak this season. Anyone that can shoot like Anderson is always in play on a short slate like this. The only question is: will the minutes be there?

My pick: Chandler(PF), Morris(UTIL)

ATLANTA, GA – NOVEMBER 03: Clint Capela #15 of the Houston Rockets dunks against the Atlanta Hawks at Philips Arena on November 3, 2017 in Atlanta, Georgia.(Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) /

Center:

Best Bets:

Nikola Jokic ($10,300): Jokic has three straight 60+ points DraftKings games (with a triple-double in each one!), but don’t get too excited. One was against the Bucks and the other two were against the Spurs. Jokic has struggled with Capela this year, only mustering 70.75 DraftKings points in two games. I highly doubt that Jokic is worth the price either, but I like him slightly more than Harden if you are bent on buying a stud.

Joel Embiid ($9,600): Just play him already. Matchups don’t even matter anymore. Embiid may be the best player in the league on a per-minute basis. He has averaged 51.7 DraftKings points in three games against Washington this year. In a field full of no sure things tonight, Embiid may be one. Although just saying that means he will be a late scratch tonight.

Honorable Mention:

Clint Capela ($7,100): Capela has actually put up more points on Jokic this year than Jokic has on him. And he costs $3,200 less. Capela is riding a streak of five straight double-doubles. He has a far greater chance of getting his sixth than Jokic has of his fourth straight triple-double.

Dark Horse:

Marcin Gortat ($4,500): Gortat has held his own against Embiid this year, which makes him a suitable value play. He has averaged 24.8 DraftKings points in three games against Philly this year. There is zero upside, but salary relief is tough to come by on this slate.

My pick: Capela(C)

Next: Early Slate DraftKings NBA Picks

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