The second race of the 2018 NASCAR season is supposed to be where things get down to business and the weekly grind begins, but weather could put a hamper on any sense of normalcy.
Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series teams always have the Daytona 500 circled on their calendars, but the crazy amount of factors out of their control at the season-opening restrictor plate race mean they’re often breathing sighs of relief when the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 rolls around a week later.
There’s good reason to feel that way. Atlanta Motor Speedway has been pretty much the same since it was reconfigured in 1997, and with track management putting off a repave for one more year, this figured to be the same rough, fast surface racers and fans have enjoyed for 20 years.
Alas, it looks like rain might have something to say about that. Atlanta hasn’t had a postponement for a Cup Series race since its date got flipped from the fall to the spring a few years ago, but there’s a definite chance it could happen this weekend. NASCAR has already pushed the start time up for the race, but that still might not be enough.
A couple of last year’s best teams could do with a healthy dose of certainty. One is the 78 bunch of Martin Truex Jr., who didn’t even make a qualifying attempt after failing inspection three times. Truex will start from the very last row and will have to race his way to the front to prove he’s not suffering from any title hangover.
Kyle Busch will have no such problems, as he’s riding shotgun on the smallest NASCAR Cup Series field in recent memory (just 36 cars). He’s won this race just once, back in 2013, but after dominating the Truck Series race on Saturday and seeing it slip away after one of his tires literally rolled off his vehicle (thanks to zero lug nuts being tightened, which tends to have that effect), one have to figures he’ll be motivated to show everything he’s got.
Here’s hoping we get the race in on Sunday afternoon, because if it’s delayed until Monday, that definitely won’t be the kind of dependability everyone wants to see as we bid adieu to the current racing surface at Atlanta — or NASCAR, for that matter, coming off what’s widely believed to be the least-watched Daytona 500 ever.
Next: See the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 starting grid for Atlanta
Forecast
There’s no use beating around the bush with this: There’s a real chance there might not be any racing in Atlanta on Sunday. Weather Channel is calling for a 75 percent chance of rain as early as 8:00 a.m., with hourly percentages of 50 percent or higher all the way through Monday morning at 9:00 a.m. The Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 could very well be a weekday lunchtime affair, and even if it gets underway, there figures to be plenty of radar-watching atop the pit boxes.
Three things to watch
- Tires, tires, tires. Atlanta Motor Speedway has been scientifically proven to be the roughest NASCAR track around, which drivers like but crew chiefs aren’t necessarily quite as crazy about. Not only could tire wear be an issue, but a green track due to rain will cause another potential headache when it comes to grip. Keep an eye on how tires play into the racing and pit strategies, regardless of when the race is held.
- Denny Hamlin vs. Bubba Wallace, Round 2? There’s definitely no love lost in what has already become the first NASCAR feud of the 2018 season. Neither man is the type to back down, and Wallace might have some extra motivation to prove he won’t be pushed around as a rookie. You definitely can’t rule out an on-track run-in of some sort.
- Can Jimmie Johnson rebound? To say the seven-time champ had a Speedweeks to forget would be a bit of an understatement. Yet that’s also been true of Daytona in past seasons, and Johnson can usually count on Atlanta to be a place where he bounces back. Johnson has won two of the three Atlanta races won in the spring, but he’s also on a bit of a cold streak (by his standards) that stretches all the way back to last summer, so it will be interesting to see which 48 shows up.
Predictions
It’s hard to look past Kyle Busch, who has been fast in everything he’s driven so far this weekend and won this race a few years back. He’s also starting from the pole, with all the advantages that brings with it. But we prefer to go with a good but not obvious choice, so we’re backing Kevin Harvick to win even though he surprisingly has never won this particular Atlanta Cup Series race (he did famously win the spring Atlanta race back when the track had two NASCAR weekends). He’s starting third on Sunday and dominated the XFINITY Series race, so we like his chances for a breakthrough.
Our dark horse pick would also be a first-time Atlanta winner, not to mention a first-timer anywhere not named Daytona or Talladega. That would be Ricky Stenhouse Jr., who could prove something with a non-restrictor plate victory and looks like he has the speed to potentially pull it off.