DraftKings NBA Picks February 27: Could Jokic outscore the King?
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks February 27: Could Jokic outscore the King?
We are back up to a ten game DraftKings tournament on our Monday. There are a lot of big names in action as the NBA continues to provide marquee players hard out of the break. Where should we build? There is plenty of value out there!
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The money line last night was all the way up to 272.5 last night. I wasn’t close, thanks to Alex Len in one lineup and a poor performance from Andrew Wiggins and D’Angelo Russell.
The winning lineup was was up to 365.75 points. He built around Brow and Ingram and got great value from Harrison, Myles Turner, and Trey Burke.
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Point Guards:
Best Bets:
Damian Lillard ($9,700): Lillard posted 148.5 DraftKings points on the Kings, and that was with George Hill defending him for a majority of that time. The Kings are still solid on defense, but they don’t have a lock down guy like Hill. Either Lillard or McCollum – or both – are going to do some serious damage in this game. My money’s on Lillard.
Kemba Walker ($8,600): Walker has 87.75 DraftKings points in two games against the Bulls so far this season. Those games took place before Walker’s hot February. He is cooling down a bit lately, but Walker is still capable of putting up some big numbers in the right matchup. Considering the Bulls have among the worst defenses in the league, this is definitely a right matchup!
Honorable Mention:
Eric Bledsoe ($7,300): Bledsoe has posted a healthy 38.8 DraftKings point average against the Wizards this season. All of those games occurred with Wall on the court. Now, Satoransky has held his own defensively, but there is still a little more upside here than normal. Bledsoe has eight straight games of more than 35 DraftKings points. He is a low risk play tonight with very good upside.
D’Angelo Russell ($6,900): This Nets rotation was kind of in flux with so many pieces entering the fold last night. Both LeVert and RHJ were on minutes limits. That most likely will continue in the second night of a back to back. Spencer Dinwiddie had the better passing night last night, but Russell’s numbers were right there with him in assists and better everywhere else. So long as Dinwiddie keeps producing, his minutes aren’t in danger, but Russell is going to have the better games for fantasy purposes. With them both about the same price, Russell is the better bet.
Jamal Murray ($6,600): Murray’s floor does leave something to be desired, but his ceiling is up there with the better ones at the position. That likely wont come to fruition against the Clippers, but Denver is committed to using Murray. Murray wont pull up a slice of bench because of a few bad shots. He is out there to shoot and keep shooting, which makes him a popular DFS choice.
Dark Horses:
Tomas Satoransky ($5,800): Satoransky continues to put up good numbers with John Wall out. He isn’t capable of putting up a big game because he is limited offensively compared to Beal, Porter, and even Oubre. However, his passing ability, solid defense, and good rebounding for a perimeter player give him a sturdy floor for DFS purposes.
Tyler Johnson ($5,100): Johnson is a key piece of this Heat backcourt, like he has been almost all year when healthy. The opportunities are going to continue to be there, but his upside is capped unless another injury happens in the backcourt. At any rate, Johnson is a solid 5x value at this price, but his potential wont go any higher than 6x.
Michael Carter-Williams ($3,600): You need a bit of a strong stomach for this one, but MCW is putting up huge numbers with the second unit in very limited time. He has 50.25 DraftKings points in just 37 minutes over the last two games. There is the added benefit of this being against a Bulls team that exiled him. There is also blowout potential here, so MCW could see a few more minutes than usual. If you need to go really cheap, this is an intriguing dart throw.
My pick: Walker(PG); Murray(PG)
Shooting Guards:
Best Bets:
Bradley Beal ($8,900): Beal continues to come up big with John Wall out. He is the go-to man in the offense right now, and the role has suited him well. Only the Cavs, Pacers, and Bulls have held Beal under 5x value this month. Beal is only averaging 30.3 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Bucks this year, so there may be some risk involved. However, with Beal being such an integral part of the offense, it is not a huge one.
Zach LaVine ($7,400): LaVine sat last night, so he will start tonight against the Hornets. This is the better matchup for LaVine from a fantasy standpoint, but with Denzel Valentine playing like he did last night, will someone lose minutes? The Bulls are in full on tank mode, so they have no incentive to risk their prized possessions. Playing LaVine just kind of makes me nervous, but you can’t ignore the upside he has.
Honorable Mention:
Nicolas Batum ($6,300): Batum contributes across nearly every category, so he has a nice floor for DFS purposes. However, his upside is not great with the way Walker and Howard are playing. I like Batum better in cash games, but his upside playing the Bulls is enough to put him on the radar in GPP formats as well.
Gary Harris ($6,000): The shots are still there for Harris, but he falls well short of value when they aren’t falling. Unlike Barton who gathers boards and Murray who picks up assists, Harris doesn’t get much outside of his points besides steals. However, you can’t consistently count on those. Harris is a touch more risky than the other two, but this is a good matchup and he is also a bit cheaper.
Dark Horses:
Allen Crabbe ($5,400): A strange thing happened last night. Everyone returned and Crabbe led the team in scoring. I don’t know exactly what this means, but it seems as though Crabbe’s role is safe right now. Mostly because the Nets really need his scoring. Long term, this is going to be a difficult situation. Short term, Crabbe could be a very nice value.
Buddy Hield ($5,300): Bogdanovic is still getting more minutes, but would you believe that Hield has been more consistent since the break? How long with Hield’s hot streak last? If his days at Oklahoma are any indication, it may not end. I would play him over Bogdan right now, but neither are a bad option. Both are playing well.
Josh Richardson ($5,200): Richardson has 72.5 DraftKings points in two games since the break. The break seems to have revitalized him. Redick isn’t going to be able to defend Richardson, so his hot streak should continue here.
My pick: Hield(SG), Richardson(G); Beal(SG), Richardson(G)
Small Forwards:
Best Bets:
LeBron James ($11,700): James has 122.5 DraftKings points in two games against the Nets this year. LeBron was huge against the Spurs in a game in which he shouldn’t have been, at least on paper. Now, I’m kind of low on LeBron tonight despite the big game against the Spurs. The Cavs wont need him to beat the Nets. I have a feeling that the rest of the team will step up tonight since they couldn’t against the Spurs. LeBron will still have a 50 point night, but likely wont quite hit value.
Tobias Harris ($7,600): Harris has been settling in nicely with his new team. In the last three games, Harris has put up 140.5 DraftKings points in the last three games alone! We saw Harris do this earlier in the season with Detroit. However, the real story here is that Harris has put up much bigger numbers with Gallinari out. If Gallinari is ruled out again, I think we have to use Harris.
Honorable Mention:
Will Barton ($7,100): Barton has been huge lately with the exception of the second Spurs game. Barton has produced across the board lately, not just in points. That’s why he has eclipsed Gary Harris so quickly. Murray probably has more upside, but Barton is the way to go for sure upside.
DeMarre Carroll ($5,800): Carroll actually had the best all-around game for the Nets last night. In less minutes, Carroll actually seemed as effective, if not more. His price has dropped some with the return of RHJ, but is it enough? Carroll still needs 29 DraftKings points in less than 30 minutes to hit value.
Dark Horses:
Jeremy Lamb ($4,500): Lamb plays far more minutes than anyone else off of the Charlotte bench. That alone makes him worth a look for this price. I still kind of think this game will get out of hand. I’m hoping that translates to a few more minutes for Lamb allowing him to go well over value tonight.
Jabari Parker ($4,300): Parker played a season high 24 minutes on Sunday and turned that into 31.5 DraftKings points. Washington is by no means an easy matchup, but Parker’s price is still depressed and his minutes are increasing. I can see another 30 here, which would put Parker very near 7x value.
Joe Harris ($4,000): Honestly, LeVert hasn’t played well enough to knock Crabbe, Harris, or Carroll out of the rotation. Still, the Nets are lottery bound, and Harris likely doesn’t fit into their future plans. However, Harris is playing very well right now, and warrants a look at this price.
My pick: Parker(SF); Barton(SF), Parker(UTIL)
Power Forwards:
Best Bet:
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,700): Again, Washington is not a great matchup. However, Giannis has put up 176.25 DraftKings points in the three games against the Wizards. Maybe it’s his versatility that makes it so hard to to defend. At any rate, I’m not shying away from Giannis just because the Wizards defense is good on paper.
Honorable Mention:
Bobby Portis ($6,500): Now this is interesting. Portis is now more expensive than starter Lauri Markkanen. How did this happen? Markkanen hit the proverbial rookie wall. Hard. Markkanen has 31.25 DraftKings points since the break. The bad part is that is over two games. Portis demolished Philly and held his own against Taj Gibson. I’m definitely more wild about Portis than Markkanen, despite Markkanen’s huge game against Charlotte earlier this year.
Larry Nance Jr. ($5,200): Nance continues to be strong with his new team. In two games since the break, Nance has 62.5 DraftKings points in just 42 minutes. The problem is that Nance continues to get himself into foul trouble. This trade is looking like a great thing for Nance, at least until Kevin Love returns. He is worth the incurred risk here because he wont always foul. And because Brooklyn isn’t that strong up front.
Wilson Chandler ($5,200): Chandler continues to thrive in Denver’s small ball system. He did struggle a little against Houston, but the Rockets are still the best team in the league defending the four. Things get easier tonight against the Clippers. Expect to see Chandler back closer to 6x value than 5x.
Dark Horses:
Jarrett Allen ($4,700): Allen continues to be weak defensively up front, but he has shown enough offensive promise to stay on the court. This is another favorable matchup for Allen, and he is priced at a point where it is very easy for him to hit 6x value. Allen is a strong value play tonight.
Skal Labissiere ($4,600): The Kings are staying true to their youngsters, and Labissiere came up with a big game for them last night. Portland is a decent team up front, but I don’t know that they can really handle the force that is Skal and WCS when they are both playing well. There is solid value here as well.
Montrezl Harrell ($4,300): Yeah, Denver is still not an easy matchup. I get it. Harrell punished them earlier in the season. The fact is that with Millsap out, Denver’s bigs are not so big because of their refusal to play Faried. Hey, that’s good news for those of us attacking Denver’s second team with a second teamer of our own. Harrell is the heart of the interior for the Clippers’ second unit, a role which has suited him well. His upside isn’t as high as Allen or Skal, but if you really need the 3-400 bucks, Harrell is a suitable alternative.
My pick: Nance(PF), Allen(F); Allen(PF), Labissiere(F)
Center:
Best Bets:
Nikola Jokic ($10,500): The only player consistently better than Joker right now is the Brow. Jokic fell two assists shy of his fourth straight triple-double against a team with a really solid interior defense on Sunday. Denver has let Jokic loose lately, and the results have been exciting for DFS owners and Nuggets fans alike. Not only did the Nuggets oust the Spurs twice, they also beat one of the better teams in the East in the Bucks, and they held strong against maybe the best team in the West in Houston. Don’t be shocked if Jokic outscores the field tonight. He is playing that well right now.
Joel Embiid ($9,400): Tough matchups mean little for Embiid right now. Seriously. He is such a freakishly gifted athlete that the only thing that can limit Embiid is the Sixers. If there ever comes a time where Embiid plays 35-38 minutes per game, he will dominate DFS. Now we just have to settle for scores in the 50’s.
Honorable Mention:
Dwight Howard ($8,400): The Bulls got pushed around on the interior last night by Allen. Howard is a MUCH better player than Allen. The Bulls have mailed it in. Seriously, the letter was sent around the time 2018 got here. I understand the futility and taking the time to make the younger players better, but this is not a good image for the league. The Bulls sat RoLo, letting Feliciano and Vonleh try to handle the middle. Howard is going to swat these kids off like flies.
Jusuf Nurkic ($6,800): Nurkic is making it very hard for Portland to keep limiting his minutes right now. Nurkic has 113.25 DraftKings points over the last three games. Cauley-Stein is a decent defender, but I still like Nurkic at this price.
Willie Cauley-Stein ($6,200): …..but not nearly as much as I like WCS at his. Cauley-Stein has 115 DraftKings points in three meetings with Portland this year. That puts him well over 6x value. The Blazers can’t really stop him, and I’m not sure that the emergence of Skal is going to chop that much off of his production. This could be a big night for WCS.
Dark Horses:
Marcin Gortat ($4,900): Gortat has quietly put together a few solid games. He also put up 83.5 DraftKings points in the first three meeting with the Bucks. Gortat is still a solid value pick when the matchup is right. It is here against Milwaukee.
John Henson ($4,700): Henson has 86.75 DraftKings points in three games against Washington. At this point, Gortat may be the safer pick just because the Bucks are starting Thon Maker, but I don’t think Henson’s production will be all that far off. Both are good money-saving options on a night where there aren’t many.
Noah Vonleh ($3,300): Vonleh was light years ahead of Feliciano last night. He outplayed him by a large margin. Of course, the Bulls are trying to lose, so they may keep using Feliciano anyway, but if Vonleh starts, jump on this!
My pick: Jokic(C), Cauley-Stein(UTIL); Howard(C)
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