NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Tuesday February 27
Welcome to the Tuesday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Monday’s NBA DFS slate came down to one simple question – did you play Anthony Davis or not? You will hear people in the DFS industry talk about a player “breaking the slate” from time to time and really it is rare, especially on a ten game slate, for one singular player to determine the cash line but that is exactly what we saw with Anthony Davis last night. The Brow exploded against the Suns for 53 points, 18 rebounds, 5 blocks and 93 fantasy points and when paired with Devin Booker (66 fantasy points) you were able to combine the top two scorers on the night. Nothing about last night was overly complex as the Pelicans-Suns game was THE spot to attack and it was a great reminder of sometimes we simply need to stop over thinking it in DFS and just play the best players in the best game environments.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Where to start on this slate:
As you settle in to today’s six game slate it is very interesting to note that three of the six games on tonight’s slate have double-digit spreads including the Cavaliers as 11 point home favorites versus the Nets, Hornets 10 point home favorite versus the Chicago Tanks (Bulls) and lastly we have Portland at home as 11 point favorites versus the Kings.
Normally I am not a huge fan of playing the blow-out risks solely do to the Vegas information but with three of the worst teams in the NBA on this slate, the potential for these games to get out of hand quickly is very real tonight so tread carefully!
The Chicago Bulls will get Zach LaVine back tonight after resting him versus the Nets last night which will send Monday’s starter Justin Holiday back to a DNP-CD play alongside Jerian Grant and Robin Lopez. LaVine is a solid play due to his team high usage rate within the new offense but his price point ($14.2K on FantasyDraft and $7.6K on FanDuel) would require him to put up around 40 fantasy points just to pay off this salary which considering he has “only” put up 34 and 42 fantasy points in this new look Bulls offense really makes him feel over-priced relative to his ceiling in my opinion.
If I am going to attack anyone from the Bulls it will likely be David Nwaba ($10.2K) who has played 31, 33 and 33 minutes as the starting Small Forward for Chicago while putting up 20, 24 and 40 fantasy points. Of all the Bulls starters, Nwaba gets the best individual match-up against a Hornets team that is ranked 26th in DvP and 24th in Def-Eff defending the position this season. These two teams played back in December in a OT game and Nwaba played 32 minutes as the 6th man for Chicago, racking up 33 fantasy points making him a solid mid-range play.
We have a ton of injury news in the late night hammer between the Clippers and Nuggets as we already know that Avery Bradley will be out for the next few weeks and Danilo Gallinari is questionable to play with a hand injury that forced him to miss the Clippers last game. With Bradley out, expect Tyrone Wallace ($7.6K) to start in his place and after he dropped 33 fantasy points in 36 minutes as the starter versus the Suns, I simply see no reason to pass on the value and point per dollar upside he provides tonight!
The big news on the Nuggets side is that Paul Millsap has been upgraded to questionable for this game and although it would be widely assumed he is on a strict minutes limit in his first game back, his return to the line-up will certainly have a trickle down effect that we will need to monitor going forward for Denver.
NBA DFS – Core Build:
There is one game that stands out among all the rest tonight as the Clippers-Nuggets game has by far the highest game total (232), which is over 12 points more than the next closest game while having only a 4 point Vegas spread while the Nuggets and Clippers independently have the first and third highest team totals on the slate. Over the last 10 games the Clippers are playing at the 4th fastest pace in the NBA while the Nuggets are playing at the 9th quickest so we have all the makings of DFS gold as we get two high scoring teams playing at a fast pace!
Remember last night when the Pelicans and Suns game was the obvious spot to attack yet players around the industry found reasons to move off the best pure spot and got burned? Tonight is an even smaller slate with tons more risk in the other games so to me this slate is simple – build around as much of this Nuggets and Clippers game as you can and simply fill in around it.
Right as it looks like Mike Malone has settled in on a great NBA DFS rotation for Denver we will have to deal with the potential return of Paul Millsap and even limited minutes could throw a monkey wrench into this teams recent rotations. What we are seeing from Denver lately is that each of the five starters is being asked to play 30+ minutes and as long as that is the case I think you can simply stack up each and every possible combination against a pace up Clippers squad.
Nikola Jokic ($18.8K) is the premier play from this game as he has put up a triple-double in three of his last four games and was only two assists shy last game of making it four straight. The fantasy production has been exceptional during this run with games of 55, 61, 61 and 82 fantasy points and considering that his price point only requires 56 fantasy points to hit value, you are essentially paying for his floor when he has flashed a ceiling that is considerably higher in recent games.
Jamal Murray ($12.3K) and Will Barton ($13K) are priced in the mid-range tonight and considering the steady minutes and demonstrated ceiling, I have no issue stacking both of these guards tonight in my line-ups. In the last meeting between these two, Barton went for 40 fantasy points and has put up 39 or more fantasy points in four of his last five games.
Wilson Chandler ($10.1K) will eventually take a back seat with a healthy Millsap on the court but right now this is a player who is logging 31+ minutes in five straight games and has put up 38 or more fantasy points in three of his last five games.
Lou Williams ($13.5K) is my favorite play from the Clippers side of the ball as he has put up 43 and 45 fantasy points in each of his last two games and has had no lower than a 28% usage rate in 10 straight games as the clear top dog in the LA offensive attack. Over the last two weeks with Bradley and Gallinari off the court, Williams is sporting a team high 34.5% usage rate and 1.46 FP/M – lock him in tonight!
Tobias Harris ($14.4K) and DeAndre Jordan ($14.5K) are each putting up 1.5 FP/M over the last two weeks with Bradley and Gallinari off the court and make for exceptional plays especially on sites where you can roster two Centers and have the ability to pair Jokic and DJ together. Harris is coming off a 60 point game in his last outing versus the Suns and Jordan is averaging 45 fantasy points per game over the last five contests so you have the ability to capture 40-50 point games from both plays here at reasonable price points.
If Gallinari is out again tonight, we could see Wesley Johnson ($6.8K) remain in the starting line-up and we saw the king of production he could deliver within the starting line-up in the second half of January where he started 8 straight games for the Clippers and put up just under 27 fantasy points per game which would deliver elite GPP value at this price point!
If you have not yet figured it out – this is where your roster build starts and ends tonight and you work to build as much of the core from this game into your line-ups. Sometimes NBA DFS is as simple as not getting cute and at first glance this looks like a slate where you zero in on the highest scoring game between two top 10 pace squads and let others chase lesser game environments.
NBA DFS – Pivot Plays:
One spot to keep an eye on tonight for some unexpected value is in Sacramento as the Kings play on the tail end of a back to back and we need to keep our eyes open for a variety of injury and.or rest scenarios.
Garrett Temple is out after experiencing lower back stiffness during warmups.
— James Ham (@James_HamNBA) February 27, 2018
On Monday Night, the Kings sat Zach Randolph and Garrett Temple was a late scratch due to back stiffness which puts him at a very questionable tag for tonight’s game against Portland. The Kings played Justin Jackson ($7K) a team high 35 minutes and although he was only able to register 17 fantasy points, the sheer volume of minutes should keep him on our radar as a punt play this evening.
I may have buried the lead here but the reality is my gut reaction is to fade the top three priced plays on the slate including LeBron James, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard. LeBron has put up 65 and 51 fantasy points against the Nets in two previous meetings this season but the blowout risk here coupled with his sky-high price makes him a strategic fade for me on this slate.
Lillard on the other hand has the same blowout risk but has actually performed much lower than his ceiling against the Kings this season in two previous match-ups with only 37 and 41 fantasy points which would not even come close to returning value at this price point. It is worth noting that Lillard destroyed this Kings in this spor before the break, scoring 50 points and dropping 70 fantasy points in only 29 minutes of court time so the upside is there if you want to take the risk.
If you are looking for a one-off stud to play than Giannis would be my pick as wings against the Wizards has been a thing all season long and we have seen the Bucks star dominate this match-up in two straight games – putting up 65 and 63 fantasy points the last two teams he has face Washington.
NBA DFS – Slate Overview and Sample Line-Up
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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FanDuel NBA DFS Sample Line-Up:
PG: Jamal Murray ($7,000)
PG: Austin Rivers ($5,600)
SG: Will Barton ($7,600)
SG: Lou Williams ($7,300)
SF: Wilson Chandler ($5,600)
SF: David Nwaba ($4,800)
PF: Tobias Harris ($7,500)
PF: Frank Kaminsky ($4,400)
C: Nikola Jokic ($10,200)
Slate Overview: For a six game slate my first look basically has me zeroed in on one game – the Clippers and Nuggets – and my expectation is to use this game as the core foundation for my build across both cash games and tournaments tonight. Keep an eye on the value that could open up tonight as we get a few teams on back to back including tanking squads like the Kings and Bulls so you never know what sort of punt value could open as we go throughout the day!
Best of luck in your NBA DFS contests across FantasyDraft and FanDuel and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!