Last year, the Oakland Raiders were a trendy pick to reach the Super Bowl before plummeting. The biggest change must come from Derek Carr.
In June, the 26-year-old star signed on the dotted line in Oakland, instantly becoming the long-term hope of Raider Nation. Derek Carr was coming off a Pro Bowl season which had MVP legs, all the way until one of his was broken on Christmas Eve 2016.
If there was any doubt about his ability to bounce back, the five-year, $125 million deal with $70 million guaranteed erased the notion.
Coming into 2017, the expectations were lofty for Carr and the Raiders, with many believing they would take the leap from good to legitimate Super Bowl contender. Instead, Oakland cratered, finishing 6-10 and third in the AFC West. Carr’s season mirrored that of his team, as he threw for for 3,496 yards and 22 touchdowns with 13 interceptions in 15 starts.
Perhaps most problematic was his 6.79 yards per attempt, ranking 19th in the league.
Oakland has renewed hope following the replacement of Jack Del Rio with Jon Gruden, the one who got away almost two decades ago. Still, for all the talk about Gruden and his resurrection, the Raiders need Carr to be at his best if they have real designs on making noise in a weak AFC.
With the Kansas City Chiefs rebuilding, the Los Angeles Chargers playing as vagabonds and the Denver Broncos in flux, Carr has a window in the AFC West.
To that point, Carr must play better within the division. Over the past three seasons, Carr is 8-10 against the Broncos, Chargers and Chiefs. Carr has been particularly bad facing the Chiefs, only winning once over that span. At Arrowhead Stadium, he’s completed 53.9 percent of his throws with two touchdowns and three interceptions.
Carr’s struggles against Kansas City point to a bigger issue. In his career, the former Fresno State star has a combined record of 9-26. In those 35 games, Carr has eclipsed 300 passing yards on six occasions.
With Gruden coming in, there are no sacred cows in Oakland. If Carr doesn’t perform better, the Raiders aren’t tied to him beyond 2018. General manager Reggie McKenzie could theoretically move on the former second-round pick for $7.5 million in dead cap in 2019, before paying $5 million in 2020.
It’s unlikely that 2018 would be it for Carr in Oakland, but the contract structure makes it possible should he continue to regress.
If Carr is going to thrive moving forward, it will be on his own volition. Gruden has a Super Bowl ring, but quarterback play under his watch has been underwhelming throughout his career. The best year any quarterback has enjoyed under Gruden was 2001, when Rich Gannon threw for 3,838 yards with 27 touchdowns and nine interceptions. The year after Gruden was dealt to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Gannon won the NFL MVP, totaling 4,689 yards and 26 scores.
One could argue that Carr is Gruden’s best bet at developing a quarterback, but it’s also arguable that Gruden has never shown the ability to develop a signal-caller as a head coach. It also must be pointed out that Gruden will have a steep learning curve in his return to the game.
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In his first run as a head coach, Gruden ran his offense for nine seasons before incorporating any plays from the shotgun formation. In 2017, the Raiders ran 68 percent of their plays from the shotgun, including 80 percent of their passing plays.
The Raiders have lofty expectations once more, with a rebuilding division around them and a handsomely paid quarterback under center. If it doesn’t work this time around, the whispers will turn to loud groans about Carr, who still has time to fulfill his perceived potential.