The Kentucky Wildcats are hitting their stride
Kentucky coach John Calipari is a master manipulator. First came the Tweak, the subtle change that propelled the 2014 Wildcats to the national title game as an No. 8 seed. Next was the Reboot, a correction last season in which the UK coach gave his players a Sunday off so he could watch film and “really evaluate where this has gone the last three weeks and why” (leading to an Elite Eight appearance).
It only makes sense, then, that following an uninspired start to conference play, Calipari and Co would again look to tinker with his team’s makeup — enter Tweak 2.0, crediting his ‘Cats with hockey assists in an attempt to encourage ball movement. But that shift didn’t particularly take, leading into a four-game losing streak, and even Calipari appeared to struggle fixing his broken team, so the players took it upon themselves to alter the arc of the 2018 season, hosting two Wildcat only meetings since mid-February. Did it work? We won’t know until March Madness, but in the meantime, Kentucky has been the nation’s most-improved high-major squad, winning three straight games against likely NCAA tournament teams like Missouri and Arkansas.
So what changed? Acclimating freshman forward Jarred Vanderbilt to a more consistent role within the team’s rotations has been one factor. An injury sidelined Vanderbilt for the entirety of Kentucky’s non-conference slate, and it took some time for the frosh to shake the rust — there was a noticeable tentativeness to his game, and through his first month of action, which included 260-plus possessions, UK posted a negative efficiency margin when the 6-foot-9 forward was on the floor. Which, of course, is totally reasonable, though the team went 3-6 during that time frame. But it would appear Vanderbilt has found his footing, which coincided with this current winning streak — the team’s EM, per Hooplens.com, is a robust +.22 with the freshmen on the court.
What has also impacted the team’s success is the overall effect of a roster finally acclimating to set rotations. Per Sean Vinsell of HoopsInsight, who tracks Kentucky’s lineup data (among other advanced analytics), 39 different lineup combinations have played at least ten possessions for UK this season; most games resembled hockey shifts as Calipari tried to find at least one lineup to consistently provide efficient play on both sides of the ball. He wasn’t that successful. Part of Calipari’s genius is convincing alpha high school athletes to be part of a team concept, to sacrifice for the greater good, but the coach needed to tinker quite a bit before this winning streak.
And which lineup will Calipari likely rely most heavily upon going forward? One that pairs Vanderbilt with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Quade Green, Kevin Knox, and PJ Washington. According to Hoops Insight, that lineup has played 44 possessions during the past three games, and the results have been whopping: per Hooplens.com, Kentucky is scoring 1.44 points per possession with that quintet on the court, and holding opponents to just 0.91 PPP. Calipari is still tinkering, going small by adding Hamidou Diallo in spurts, but it’s clear that the coupling of Washington and Vanderbilt provides the requisite hustle and rebounding tenacity UK needs on defense while allowing for an even flow within the Wildcats’ halfcourt offense.
The overall team-wide effect has been equally as stunning. The Wildcats have scored 1.24 PPP the last three games while also boosting its assist rate (from 38 percent the previous four games — all losses — to 49.4 percent) and offensive rebounding rate (30.7 percent to 46.5 percent). What’s interesting is that the defense hasn’t truly improved all that much — 1.02 PPP, as opposed to the 1.04 PPP UK allowed during those four losses — but the improved EM of +.22 is more than enough to cancel out a uncharacteristically porous defense.
Next: Best college basketball player from every state
Calipari’s emphasis on ball movement via hockey assists has also found its niche within Tweak 3.0, in particular contributing to the team’s perimeter uptick. The squad has converted 45.8 percent from deep in the past three games, a small sample size but a telling one as Missouri and Alabama both emphasize running teams off the 3-point arc.
It’ll be interesting to see how long Calipari relies on this particular lineup formation. The fivesome’s debut was against Texas A&M, and it was a disastrous showing, scoring just .57 PPP while allowing the Aggies to drop 1.30 PPP. It was slightly better against Auburn — just a -.04 EM — until finally hitting its stride versus the Crimson Tide eleven days ago. We’ll just have to wait and see if Calipari gives this shuffle a colorful nickname or leaves the naming up to the squad.