NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Wednesday February 28

Welcome to the Wednesday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!

For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big!

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.

Tuesday’s NBA DFS slate was a brutal one for me personally as I decided to take a stand and go all-in on the Clippers-Nuggets game and really outside of Lou Williams (45), none of the players really performed at an exceptional fantasy level in this game which left my core game stack dead in the water. Giannis Antetokounmpo (69) continued to just crush the Wizards this year as the leading scoring on the night with his third straight 60+ fantasy point performance against them this year.

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and  help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.

If you are looking to try out a new DFS site, head on over to FantasyDraft and enter my referral code for 10% rake back on your entries.

As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts  prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.

Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!

NBA DFS – Where to start on this slate:

We get an interesting nine game slate tonight that kicks off at 7PM EST on FanDuel and 7:30PM EST on FantasyDraft, which eliminates the first two games on the slate and turns this into a seven game slate. I have said this before, but this staggered start on FantasyDraft is the PERFECT opportunity to play on multiple sites as you can build your main line-up on FanDuel for 7PM lock and then spend the next 30 minutes building your FantasyDraft rosters!

Starting anywhere other than Anthony Davis ($21.1K, $12.5K on FanDuel) seems foolish as there is no more dominant force in NBA DFS right now than the Brow and no price point or match-up is too daunting at this point where we can simply write him off.

Davis is simply playing at a level much like we saw with Russell Westbrook last year where you just ignored the price and did everything possible to jam him into your line-ups. Davis has put up 88 or more fantasy points in three of his last six games – seriously think about that for a moment – he has literally broken half the slates he has played on over his last six times taking the floor.

On the surface the Spurs are a match-up we would normally avoid and it is worth noting that Anthony Davis has struggled in this match-up over the last two years to the tune of the following fantasy point totals – 18, 32, 43, 46 and 50. Now I know what you are thinking – he must have gotten hurt in some of those games (nope – he played 30+ minutes in every single one) and interestingly his two best games came with Boogie on the floor next to him.

Here is the thing – the match-up is an extreme pace down spot (Pelicans see the second largest pace decrease on the slate) and the history suggests that the Spurs have found a way to slow down Davis when faced with this match-up before. I love numbers, I make my decisions in large part based solely off the data but part of me simply does not care about what the numbers or match-up say here because frankly right now there is no single player you can roster that has the ability to set the cash line like Davis does. The decision to roster AD right now so perfectly mirrors how I felt last year with Westbrook – you just needed to find a way to make it work – and I think you make every effort to get him in again this evening – numbers be damned!

NBA DFS – Battle in the Staples Center:

This game has been marked down on my calendar for some time after the last time the Clippers and Rockets met in the Staples Center. If you need a little refresher than let this tweet serve as a reminder to how that game ended:

From a metrics perspective we do not have a total yet on this game and we still do not know the status of Danilo Gallinari (hand) and Clint Capela (illness) but we do know this game has the third fastest projected pace on the slate. Interestingly enough, over the last 10 games the Clippers rank 3rd in the NBA in pace of play while the Rockets rank dead last – not a spot we are used to seeing the Rockets frankly, but we know they can run with any team in the league when the match-up dictates it.

James Harden ($21.2K) missed the last outing between these two teams but did drop 69 fantasy points against them in the first meeting this season. My issue with Harden is that for the same price point I can get Anthony Davis and I think there is merit to using the salary on AD and finding other ways to get exposure to this great game environment which in essence would kill two birds with one stone.

Chris Paul ($15K) feels a tad bit over-priced here as he been stuck between 37-41 fantasy points in each of his last five games but the narrative of his return to the Staples Center combined with the WWF style antics last meeting makes this a spot that will no doubt make him one of the more popular PG plays on the night.

The spot to watch tonight will be the status of Clint Capela who missed last game due to illness and looks to be questionable for tonight’s tilt which would open up another start for Tarik Black ($6.1K) who put up 19 fantasy points in his start against the Jazz on Monday. Nene ($6.4K) would also be in play as he logged 20 minutes off the bench and put up 22.5 fantasy points as the Rockets were short-handed in the frontcourt.

Not that we ever feel good about rostering Joe Johnson in 2018 but the reality is that he is minimum priced on FanDuel and has played 28+ minutes in three of his last four games. On a night where we have a ton of studs to pay up for, Iso Joe looks like a nice punt option for a Rockets team that has already ruled out Ryan Anderson tonight.

In theory this should be a great spot for DeAndre Jordan ($13.2K) if Capela sits out but we would have thought the same thing for Rudy Gobert on Monday but he underwhelmed with only 34 fantasy points against the Rockets interior so this may not be the smash spot it would appear on paper especially if the Rockets opt to go smaller in this game if Capela sits which could run DJ off the floor.

Lou Williams ($13.6K) continues to be the core play from the Clippers in my mind as he has now put up 40 or more fantasy points in three straight games and has put up 50+ fantasy points in both previous outings against the Rockets this season. I love the idea of pairing Lou Williams and Chris Paul together on this slate to get me elite exposure to one of my favorite games of the night and you can pair that duo with Anthony Davis in essentially all formats as there appears to be a significant amount of value already with more potentially opening up if for example we get Clint Capela out again.

NBA DFS – Pivot Plays:

We already mentioned the fact that we are going right back to Anthony Davis tonight but do not overlook the Spurs side of this match-up as they see the second largest pace boost on the slate taking on a Pelicans team playing at the fastest pace in the NBA over the last 15 games.

We already know that Pau Gasol is doubtful for this game which opens up some value and boosts some of the other core Spurs plays in this match-up tonight. The last game that Gasol sat out was January 23rd against the Cavaliers which was before Cleveland made their trades and were playing a faster brand of basketball with some brutal defense. The Spurs should see a similar if not better pace boost in this spot so we can easily look back at that game log to get an idea of the fantasy performances for some of the Spurs we have interest in.

First and foremost is LaMarcus Aldridge ($14.8K) who leads the team with a 33% usage with Gasol off the court and dropped 51 fantasy points against the Cavaliers the last time Gasol missed a game. In that outing, LMA put up a team leading 18 FGA and at this mid-range price point he makes for an exceptional cash game play with great GPP upside as a correlation to Anthony Davis.

Dejounte Murray ($11.7K) is never someone I feel warm and fuzzy about building around but the reality is he is coming off a 45 fantasy points outing in his last game and was perhaps the biggest beneficiary of Gasol being out earlier versus the Cavaliers. In that game, Murray had a team high 30% usage rate and dropped 53 fantasy points in that game and will now face a Pelicans team with Rajon Rondo and his 24th ranked DRPM rating at PG.

The last game Gasol sat out, it was Davis Bertans ($7.4K) who drew the start, playing over 29 minutes and putting up 26 fantasy points which would more than return value at this value price point. I mentioned earlier that this is looking like a slate to pay up for which means we will need value and the aforementioned Tarik Black and Davis Bertans are great ways to open up salary to do just that!

There is a one-off play I have a ton of interest in after he burned the world on Monday – welcome back to our lives Alex Len ($10.3K). Now before you go screaming and yelling and putting your foot down that you will never play him again after his 8 point fantasy dud against the Pelicans, let’s think back to why everyone thought he was a good play heading into that game and why I believe he is still a good play now.

The dud was completely driven by foul trouble as Len fouled out in only 20 minutes of court time – guarding Anthony Davis will do that to you by the way. Len had come into that game with back to back double-double and between 33 and 39 fantasy points in three straight games. Tyson Chandler is going to be sidelined for the foreseeable future which means Alex Len has the starting gig locked here and with a price decrease since Monday and I would expect MASSIVELY lower ownership – this is a spot where savvy fantasy players jump back on!

NBA DFS – Slate Overview and Sample Line-Up

Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here. 

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FanDuel NBA DFS Sample Line-Up:

PG: Chris Paul ($8,400)

PG: Dejounte Murray ($6,800)

SG: Lou Williams ($7,700)

SG: Danny Green ($4,400)

SF: Jeremy Lamb ($4,400)

SF: Joe Johnson ($3,500)

PF: Anthony Davis ($12,500)

PF: LaMarcus Aldridge ($8,700)

C: Nene ($3,600)

Slate Overview: At first blush I think this is a slate where instead of one game environment to build around – I am finding myself gravitating towards building around two spots – the Pelicans/Spurs and the Rockets/Clippers. I have mentioned this a few times but I love the idea of building around Chris Paul/Lou Williams to get high level exposure to what should be a great game and instead of stacking it with James Harden you simply pivot to Anthony Davis. If AD continues to do AD things and Harden defers to CP3 (with it being a game in LA it is absolutely conceivable) then you would maximize your exposure to both elite game environments. Keep an eye on the value tonight with how the Spurs intend to replace Pau Gasol and whether Clint Capela is able to play and get ready for what I expect will be a high scoring NBA DFS night!

Next: DraftKings NBA Picks

Best of luck in your NBA DFS contests across FantasyDraft and FanDuel and stay tuned to all the latest DFS news and analysis on Fantasy CPR!