Nationals can’t afford to get desperate for Jake Arrieta

The Washington Nationals remain engaged as starter Jake Arrieta’s free agency drags on, but is this really the time to step up with a big offer?

Peanut butter and jelly. Cake and ice cream. The Washington Nationals and Scott Boras clients. These are all some of the best combinations known to man. The superagent and the Nationals have come together on deals for outfielder Jayson Werth, pitchers Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg, and have worked well to keep Bryce Harper happy leading up to his own date with free agency.

There’s always a feeling in the room that the Nationals and Boras can find a way to come together to make a mutually-beneficial deal.

As the offseason turns into Spring Training, it has not been a typical winter for Boras and his clients. Try as he might, Boras has still been unable to find a home for one of his premier clients, 2015 Cy Young Jake Arrieta. The Nationals, though, have been lurking.

Being engaged with Arrieta and Boras is quite different from actively pursuing him, but this bit of news shows the Nationals have interest in making their super-rotation behind Scherzer and Strasburg even better. Signing Arrieta would give the Nationals a deadly rotation, but the question remains — how much does it really matter?

In a weak NL East, the Nationals will waltz to another division title without much difficulty. They are a playoff team without spending over $100 million on Arrieta. This type of move is all about one thing — winning a World Series in Bryce Harper’s final year of team control. Yes, the Nats have never won a playoff series. That does not matter. With the type of talent assembled in Washington, it has to be World Series or bust every year.

Pitching was not the problem in the Nats latest NLDS last October. They were limited to two hits in a Game 1 loss, scored a single run in a Game 3 loss and then saw a 4-1 lead in Game 5 evaporate with Scherzer on the mound. There’s an argument to be made that starting Arrieta in Game 5 instead of Gio Gonzalez would have made all the difference, but for all his faults, Gonzalez was actually better than Arrieta last season.

Don’t get me wrong, the Nationals should absolutely sign Arrieta if the price is right. Heck, go ahead and give him $25 million per year. It’s not my money, and the Lerner family desperately wants to win while their 92-year-old patriarch is still alive. The key is to avoid getting desperate and making a knee-jerk move to sign a starting pitcher whose performance has been trending in the wrong direction since his Cy Young season.

Now is the time for Scott Boras to shine, when he can isolate a team like the Nationals and prey on their desire to win a championship. With a deep farm system and a solid core still in place A.H. (after Harper), there’s no reason the Nationals have to view 2018 as their last best chance to win a World Series. Washington is well-situated for the future, unlike, say, the Detroit Tigers, whose owner continued plowing millions into free agents all the while neglecting to build up prospects to lead the next wave.

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With nearly $400 million already committed to two pitchers into their mid-thirties, the Nationals are already making a huge gamble on future health. Getting maximum value out of three starting pitchers signed past the age of 35 is the riskiest bet in baseball.

The franchise just has to think long and hard before throwing another nine figures at a rotation that is already one of the best in baseball. If the deal is right, by all means, go for it, but staying in control and continuing to wait is the best course of action.