Austin Barnes: Fantasy baseball's next Buster Posey?

The Los Angeles Dodgers will split playing time between two excellent defensive catchers. When deciding on which one to draft, focus on the upside of Austin Barnes.

Yasmani Grandal was restricted to just eight at-bats during the 2017 postseason with Dodgers’ manager Dave Roberts opting for the less experienced but sabermetrically superior Austin Barnes behind the plate.

Last season, both catchers ranked in the top-10 defensively according to the framing metric on Baseball Prospectus, and it is in the Dodgers’ interest to keep both players actively involved in games.

Roberts has said he expects “Grandal to win his job back”, but a platoon seems more likely with Grandal, a switch-hitter, seeing starts against right-handers and Barnes will probably start the season restricted to starts when a left-hander is on the mound.

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In 2017, Barnes was one of only 13 hitters posting an OBP north of .400 (min 200 PA). It reads like a veritable Who’s Who of elite hitters: Joey Votto, Mike Trout, Aaron Judge, Justin Turner, Bryce Harper, Jose Altuve, Kris Bryant, Paul Goldschmidt, Tommy Pham, Anthony Rendon, Freddie Freeman and Buster Posey.

Barnes and the Cardinals’ breakout sensation Pham are the only unexpected names on the list. And obviously, Barnes and Posey are the only catchers listed.

Getting on-base at a good lick is not a skill that Grandal possesses. His .308 OBP was 100 points lower than that of Barnes.

The 28-year-old Barnes is under team control until 2023, so the Dodgers have more of a vested interest in his future than Grandal’s, who will probably become a free agent at the end of the season.

Barnes featured in 102 games (262 PA), scoring 35 runs with eight home runs, 15 doubles, three triples and four stolen bases. He walked almost as many times as he struck out and posted a .289 AVG.

Grandal offers considerable more home run power. He has hit 49 over the last two seasons combined but that came with a 27% strikeout rate.

In fantasy terms, the projection systems see very little difference between them, but Barnes gets the edge with three categories to one, and one tie.

Barnes (208 ADP): 46 runs, 10 home runs, 47 RBI, seven stolen bases, .261 AVG
Grandal (235 ADP): 39 runs, 17 home runs, 48 RBI, one stolen base, .238 AVG

Barnes added 2B-eligibility last season and he will undoubtedly be called into action as a defensive replacement again this season. In fact, the Dodgers second base pairing of Logan Forsythe and Chase Utley were both below-average players last season, so Barnes might see more than 31 2B-plate appearances this year. The avenue for extra playing time is a bonus.

Now that we have established that Barnes is the Dodgers’ catcher you want to roster, let’s look at his upside.

Double-digit home runs, 5-plus stolen bases and an elite OBP rate looks to be the floor. On a ‘per plate appearance’ basis, Barnes matched Posey’s counting stats production in the second half of the season and he posted .295 AVG and .419 OBP. If a trade, injury or a managerial decision opens up playing time of 450-500 plate appearances for Barnes, he could be a top-5 catcher. That’s an attractive ceiling.

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Grandal is playing for a contract and has demonstrated the ability to hit 20-25 home runs, which from behind the plate is a great return but it comes with a drain to your batting average.

Barnes will contribute in all of the five standard roto categories and his on-base talent could manifest into the Dodgers’ version of Buster Posey. They are both high-contact, low-strikeout hitters with an excellent eye at the plate, and although Barnes is unlikely every to match prime-Posey, he is pretty close to 2018-Posey.

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Austin Barnes: Fantasy baseball’s next Buster Posey?

By Gavin Tramps | Mar 1, 2018

The Los Angeles Dodgers will split playing time between two excellent defensive catchers. When deciding on which one to draft, focus on the upside of Austin Barnes.

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