How much should Dodgers be prepared to pay for Clayton Kershaw?

Clayton Kershaw can test the open market after this season, but the Los Angeles Dodgers shouldn’t let it get that far.

He is the best pitcher in baseball right now, and possibly ever, a three-time Cy Young and the 2014 NL MVP, the highest-paid player in the league and has a cumulative sub-2.00 ERA for five years running. Clayton Kershaw is many things, but one thing he can finally be for the first time after the 2018 season is a free agent.

Kershaw has spent his entire 10-year MLB career with the Los Angeles Dodgers, no doubt leaving money on the table by agreeing to an extension in 2014 and giving up a chance to hit the open market after his age-26 season. The $215-million extension made Kershaw the richest pitcher in MLB history and gave him the ability to opt-out at the still relatively young age of 30.

That Kershaw would eventually exercise his opt-out clause was all but a foregone conclusion barring a catastrophic injury. He is set up to co-headline an epic class of free agents for 2019 that will include Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Josh Donaldson, Craig Kimbrel and Andrew Miller.

The Dodgers shouldn’t let it get that far.

It won’t take a blank check to keep the future Hall of Famer, but Los Angeles must be ready to come to the bargaining table with deep pockets

According to Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times, the Dodgers and their star ace are keeping an “open dialogue” about his contract status. Steps have already been taken to get below the luxury-tax threshold, and the team will now face lesser penalties for blowing past baseball’s de facto salary cap next winter. Furthermore, while the Dodgers have been quiet in free agency by their own standards, nearly $200 million has been spent to keep Kenley Jansen, Justin Turner, and Rich Hill.

The writing seems to be on the wall — Kershaw ain’t going anywhere.

Even with his two minor injuries over the past two seasons, Kershaw has still gone 30-8 with a 2.03 ERA and has struck out 374 against only 41 walks in 324 innings. Even with only 27 starts to his name in 2017, the left-hander led MLB with 18 wins and took home yet another NL ERA crown. The run of sub-2.00 ERA seasons may be coming to an end as the league swings back into an environment of higher offensive output, but Kershaw is still on a seven-year run that is on par with the best seasons put together during the Dead Ball Era. In modern history, only Pedro Martinez at the height of his powers during the Steroid Era compares.

The brilliant Jay Jaffe of Fangraphs has effectively crunched the numbers and has determined that Kershaw can command anywhere from $200 to $276 million on a seven-year deal. Recent extensions for star pitchers like Justin Verlander, Stephen Strasburg, and CC Sabathia have all topped seven years. David Price and Max Scherzer also garnered seven-year deals as free agents and were both older than Kershaw at the time they signed.

Statistically speaking, there’s no way of predicting how Kershaw will age past the age of 35. He doesn’t get by purely on velocity and has impeccable command. The minor injuries he has dealt with the past two years are not indicative of a coming elbow blowout either. The Dodgers are going to have to at least top Zack Greinke’s average annual salary of $34.4 million to keep Kershaw. Assuming a slight increase for inflation and a premium on top, Los Angeles is looking at something in the neighborhood of $260 million to keep their ace. There’s no room to allow for wringing of hands over committing that much to a pitcher deep into his thirties. The Dodgers have to ignore the risk and pay, because someone else will.

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This is a rare opportunity for an MLB star to sign a second $200-million contract in his career. Kershaw has every right to wait out the Dodgers and take this all the way to the offseason if he so desires. He isn’t a Scott Boras client and already made a major concession by signing an extension. Chances are good the same willingness to be a Dodger for life remains in Kershaw.

It won’t take a blank check to keep the future Hall of Famer, but Los Angeles must be ready to come to the bargaining table with deep pockets as soon as Kershaw gives an indication it’s time to make a deal.