DraftKings NBA Picks March 1: Don't fade LeBron on the short slate

CHICAGO, IL – JANUARY 03: Jakob Poeltl #42 of the Toronto Raptors leaps to pass over Denzel Valentine #45 and Robin Lopez #42 of the Chicago Bulls at the United Center on January 3, 2018 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Picks March 1: Don’t fade LeBron on the short slate

We kick off March with only four games for our DraftKings tournament. That’s right…..there are more Euro League than NBA games today! That doesn’t mean we are light on talent though. There are several good options here. Let’s build a winner!

Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Damian Lillard ($9,400): Believe it or not, Lillard has actually not hit value against the Timberwolves this season by tonight’s price. In three games, Lillard has averaged 45.5 DraftKings points against Minnesota. That leaves him a little short of value for this price, but it’s not that short and Lillard is still easily the best option at the point on this truncated slate. Also of note, Lillard has three 60+ DraftKings point efforts in his last six games. He could approach that number tonight as well.

Goran Dragic ($7,400): It can be hard to rely on Dragic at times because he can be pretty inconsistent. However, he has shown that he can put up some pretty big numbers lately. I wouldn’t count on anything like that, but with the Lakers on tap, this is a very exploitable matchup for Dragic tonight.

Honorable Mention:

D’Angelo Russell ($7,300): This is what we were waiting for. Russell racked up 45.25 DraftKings points against the Cavs on Tuesday, posting a nice all-around game and playing 32 minutes. Russell was off to a fast start with the Nets before he got injured. It may be a tad too early to say he’s back, but on a four game slate and at this price, it is certainly worth finding out. Russell could be a nice value again tonight.

De’Aaron Fox ($5,600): Fox has been consistently good for the Kings since they handed over the reins of the offense. He isn’t the kind of player that is going to put up a huge stat line, but Fox has proven to be a good passer and good scorer. Fox is price right for his modest production, making him a cash game staple. On a short slate against a team like Brooklyn, he also has ample upside for GPP usage.

Dark Horses:

Jordan Clarkson ($4,600): Clarkson still has a solid role with Cleveland, but it isn’t what it was with the Lakers. His price has been adjusted accordingly. A sniper off the bench could have some success against Philly, just like Clarkson did the first time around. However, Cleveland loaded up their bench, so Clarkson isn’t the top banana on the second unit all the time here. That makes his production sporadic, but beggars can’t be choosers on a short slate.

T.J. McConnell ($4,000): The return of Redick and the addition of Belinelli has hurt McConnell’s minutes load, but he still produces when he is in there. McConnell only needs 20 DraftKings points for value, and he plays around 20-25 minutes per game. There is decent potential here.

My pick: Russell(PG); Fox(PG)

ATLANTA, GA – JANUARY 29: Andrew Wiggins #22 of the Minnesota Timberwolves reacts after their 105-100 loss to the Atlanta Hawks at Philips Arena on January 29, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) /

Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

C.J. McCollum ($6,900): I like Spencer Dinwiddie, but there is no way that he can hit value at his price with Russell running the show. Truth be told, I’m not a huge McCollum fan tonight either, but this is a very shallow position. Outside of a horrid shooting night against the Kings on Tuesday, McCollum still had put up more than 30 DraftKings points in three straight games. However, with Lillard playing like he is, it will be hard for C.J. to have a big game as well.

Andrew Wiggins ($6,700): Truth be told, I like Wiggins over the more expensive options at the position tonight unless you are using Russell here. There is far more upside for Wiggins with Jimmy Butler out. Though Wiggins has yet to have a huge night with Butler out this time around, he is still producing over 30 DraftKIngs points per game. He has established a sound floor. Now let’s see a big game!

Honorable Mention:

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($6,200): KCP has yet to cool down, and his price has yet to heat up despite his robust 41.4 DraftKings point per game average over the last four games. I would almost play KCP over Wiggins right now, that’s how hot he has been. He finds himself in that void where the cost hasn’t caught up to the production, leaving Caldwell-Pope as a strong value play again tonight.

Josh Richardson ($5,800): Richardson is the smart choice over dealing with the headache that is trying to figure out which Kings guard to play. Both Bogdan and Hield struggled on Thursday, so it’s as much of a crap shoot as it has ever been. Meanwhile, Richardson continues to play heavy minutes and hit value. What you see is what you get. He even has some solid upside against the Lakers tonight.

Dark Horses:

Dwyane Wade ($5,000): Wade put up 37.75 DraftKings points in just 25 minutes against the Sixers on Tuesday. It looks as though the Heat are going to be without Tyler Johnson, which could open up some more minutes for Wade as well. Returning to Miami has kickstarted Wade’s fantasy value. He is worth a look as long as he remains hot. Or you can play Sacramento roulette with Bogdanovic and Hield. Your choice.

Jamal Crawford ($4,300): Crawford’s price is up to the point where he could have trouble hitting value. After all, he is nothing more than a shooter at this point in his career. However, he has been playing half the game with Butler out. There is still decent value in Crawford, especially on a lighter slate.

My pick: KCP(SG), Crawford(G); Wade(SG), Wiggins(SF), Richardson(G)

PHOENIX, AZ – DECEMBER 31: Ben Simmons #25 of the Philadelphia 76ers high fives fans following the NBA game against the Phoenix Suns at Talking Stick Resort Arena on December 31, 2017 in Phoenix, Arizona. The 76ers defeated the Suns 123-110. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) /

Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

LeBron James ($11,900): The King has 132.25 DraftKings points in two meetings against the Sixers this year. It’s the incumbent against the hot new name, and the incumbent is far superior. James torched Brooklyn on Tuesday, adding to his streak of eight straight games of more than 50 DraftKings points. Six of those games have topped 5x value. There is no good reason to fade LeBron, especially on a short slate. Contrarians beware. The King is a sure 60 again tonight.

Ben Simmons ($8,600): The rookie has still not regained the consistency that made him one of the best plays in DFS back in December. Now there is more bad news: LeBron is back at SF for much of the game with Nance in town. Simmons couldn’t do much against the King in the first two meetings, but he also wont have to tangle with Love either. I’m on the fence about Simmons. He stacks numbers in all categories, but this is not an easy matchup. I would rather scrounge up the extra $3,600 for James.

Honorable Mention:

DeMarre Carroll ($5,900): Carroll seems to be safe from the shake ups in Brooklyn. For now, at least. Going Carroll’s way is the fact that he was starting here when everyone was healthy. Carroll has also produced solid numbers all year long. He lacks significant upside with everyone healthy, but Carroll is still a solid value play.

Nemanja Bjelica ($5,300): Bjelica has scored 77 DraftKings points over the last three games filling in for Jimmy Butler. More importantly, the Timberwolves have won two of those. Bjelica wont put up huge numbers with all of the other talent on this team, but since he is going to be starting, he is a good source of value. I like him more in cash games due to the steady floor and lack up upside, but if you need the 600 bucks, you need the 600 bucks.

Dark Horses:

Caris LeVert ($4,100): LeVert put up 23.75 DraftKings points in just 19 minutes on Tuesday night, and that was in the second night of a back to back. There are a lot of things to be ironed out in the Nets rotation for the next few games or so, most notably who is starting, but if LeVert can produce even in limited minutes, that makes him a solid value play with a lot of upside. I have a feeling LeVert may wind up starting if Dinwiddie stumbles, but that appears to be a ways off. For now, just enjoy the nice bursts or production at a very reasonable price.

Justin Jackson ($3,700): Jackson is still the starter for the time being. That means he is a great value at this price. Jackson only scored nine points on Tuesday, but he still ended up with 7x value thanks to the low price tag. I do think we need to keep an eye on the status of Garrett Temple though. Oh, who am I kidding? The Kings are clearly tanking. They are going to ride Jackson whether he makes them better or not.

My pick: James(SF), Jackson(F); Bjelica(F)

ATLANTA, GA – FEBRUARY 26: Julius Randle #30 of the Los Angeles Lakers reacts after drawing a foul on a basket against the Atlanta Hawks at Philips Arena on February 26, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) /

Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Julius Randle ($7,500): This is not an easy matchup for Randle. The Heat rank in the top five in point allowed to power forwards this season. However, Randle has only been under 5x value, even at this price, in three of the last dozen games. There is still good potential here for Randle.

Dario Saric ($6,500): Saric continues to put up between 25 and 35 DraftKings points like clockwork. There is no huge upside here unless Embiid sits for some reason. Saric is likely a better cash game play because of the limited upside, but this is a good enough matchup with Cleveland that Saric is worth a look.

Honorable Mention:

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($5,600): Hollis-Jefferson is still coming off the bench to limit his usage fresh off of injury, but he did a lot of damage in only 21 minutes in his return to the court against Cleveland. Sacramento is slightly tougher up front, but I would think that the Nets would let RHJ up his minutes a little. There is a complete lack of upside here, but if he plays half the game, RHJ could still get at least 5x value.

Larry Nance Jr. ($5,500): Nance has done well in Cleveland, and should continue to do so for the duration of Kevin Love‘s absence. He still seems pretty cheap here considering Nance has eclipsed 5x value in two of the last three games. This is a solid matchup against the Sixers, but I still like Nance to have a solid game with the potential for more.

Dark Horses:

Jarrett Allen ($4,900): Allen continues to start and play pretty good minutes for the Nets. It’s clear that they see Allen as part of the future. Allen has 87.75 DraftKings points in three games since the All Star Break. WCS is a solid defender, but I doubt he holds Allen under value at this price.

Skal Labissiere ($4,500): I don’t know what to make of this situation, but it is a good one for the Kings. As for which player actually benefits most, consult your Magic 8 Ball. Everywhere else, the Kings have allowed the youth movement to get going, but Skal has still had trouble staying on the court. I get it. It’s hard to bench Randolph in his return to relevance, but the Kings are trying to “develop talent” (I will translate: get more ping pong balls). It is counterproductive not only to keep throwing Randolph out there, but to do it with four players who were in diapers when he began his career. Skal should start, and this is a great matchup, but I don’t know that we can trust this with a late tip.

My pick: Allen(PF); Allen(PF)

NEW YORK, NY – JANUARY 31: Joel Embiid #21 of the Philadelphia 76ers reacts in the first quarter against the Brooklyn Nets during their game at Barclays Center on January 31, 2018 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City. (Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images) /

Center:

Best Bets:

Joel Embiid ($10,000): Embiid is playing well lately, even against tougher frontcourts like Washington and Miami. Embiid gets a bit of a break against Cleveland tonight. Some would say that Embiid lacks upside since he isn’t going to play much more than 30 minutes. I would say that he is so good that Embiid has upside no matter how many minutes he plays.

Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,600): It was been Towns, not Wiggins, that has picked up more of the slack with Butler out this time around. Want another little tantalizing nugget? Who has the most double-doubles in the NBA this season? Easy, right? It’s gotta be LeBron, right? Nope. He’s seventh. How about Westbrook? Getting warmer. Westy is third. It’s not Andre Drummond either. It’s Towns. Towns has 54 double-doubles in 64 games. Drummond is second with 46 in 59 games. Towns has a solid floor, and even more upside with Butler out again.

Honorable Mention:

Hassan Whiteside ($8,000): Whiteside seems to be back to full health. He has seven double-doubles in eight tries, and finished the month strong. Whiteside’s reward is to start of March with a feast on the Lakers. Whiteside likely wont have to deal with man-child Julius Randle, which means he can abuse veteran Brook Lopez, which he most definitely will. There is no shame in dropping from the elite to Whiteside tonight.

Willie Cauley-Stein ($7,100): The Nets are historically bad against centers lately. Every center is destroying them right now. Cauley-Stein is getting better on offense, and this is an opportunity for him to have a career night. This is like the best team in the state playing the junior varsity of the worst team. Cauley-Stein is going to feast tonight!

Dark Horses:

Jusuf Nurkic ($7,000): If it weren’t for Cauley-Stein’s stellar matchup, Nurkic would be a guy I was really high on tonight. However, Portland’s lack of consistent frontcourt minutes are concerning. Especially when Nurkic has been much better than everyone else, yet rarely plays 30 minutes a game.

Tristan Thompson ($4,500): Thompson doens’t have a lot of upside, but he has proven to be a strong rebounder on a team desperately in need of size in the middle. The rebounds give Thompson a solid floor, and teams have gone at Embiid with some success this year. Let’s see if Cleveland tries to do the same.

My pick: Cauley-Stein(C), Thompson(UTIL); Towns(C), Cauley-Stein(UTIL)

Next: FanDuel and FantasyDraft NBA Picks and Pivots

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