FanDuel EPL DFS: Fixtures, Flyers & Fades – Mar 3 2018
By David Gate
Welcome to Fixtures, Flyers & Fades weekly FanDuel EPL DFS column! There are six Premier League games on the main slate and we have all the tips for you!
Last week was a great success as we followed the Liverpool chalk to cash in every lineup. Mohamed Salah, Roberto Firmino and Sadio Mane did not disappoint. The two keepers in that game also brought it home with Karius holding strong in cash and Adrian thriving in GPP.
This week is a slate I’m really looking forward to with Liverpool up again and Spurs in a perfect matchup with Huddersfield. There is also the consideration of weather this week with snow coming across much of England and Wales.
There remains the possibility that some of these games may be called off so you have to be aware on Saturday morning; and there is one game I will be avoiding altogether. Liverpool and Spurs both have big Champions League games this week so there may be one or two surprise rotations in those lineups that could open up some big value.
I break down this column into three categories: Fixtures are those you need to build your lineups around. Flyers are the gambles and the punts; cheaper or lesser known players in great positions for a break out game. Fades are those you need to avoid; I think who you choose to fade in soccer DFS is more important than in any other DFS sport.
I’ll be on Twitter @davidgatesports to chat through lineups changes and team sheet surprises from 9:00am ET.
FanDuel EPL DFS: Fixtures
Top of the roster this week is Harry Kane (14000) who is at his max price. That is for a very good reason. He is on a run of 6 goals in his last 6 games and has a prime matchup at home to Huddersfield Town. Kane scored a brace against the Terriers last time out and made 4x value with 55 FanDuel points. He has scored two or more goals in 8 of his 27 league games. That is nearly one-third of the time. Despite his price this is not the week to fade him; a must in cash and solid pick in GPP.
The best way to complete a Spurs stack this week is not to go for Dele Alli (9500) or Christian Eriksen (10500) as you usually would because of the budget. It is much more opportunistic to use the Spurs full backs – Ben Davies (7000) & Kieran Trippier (7000) or Serge Aurier (6500).
In the reverse game at Huddersfield Davies had a goal and an assist while Tripper had two assists. I’m sure Pochettino will be looking to take advantage with his full backs again, especially at home. Don’t sleep on Son Heung-Min (8500) either – Huddersfield have concede more goals to left footers than any other side in the Premier League.
Xherdan Shaqiri (9000) is in a great spot this week. He has scored in his last three games and eventually that run will end. However he is up against Southampton who have conceded the most goals from outside of the box in the EPL. Shaqiri could well keep his run going this week.
FanDuel EPL DFS: Flyers
My favorite budget play on this slate is Mohamed Diame (6000) at Newcastle. He has his 4x value for the last three games and has a great matchup at Anfield against Liverpool. With Jonjo Shelvey missing out with injury the Senegalese midfielder should be very busy chasing the Liverpool attack. Mikel Merino (7000) is projected to replace Shelvey and he is also in a good spot and racked up 26 FanDuel point against the Reds back in November.
The safest bet at goalkeeper this week is Martin Dubravka (5500) who is guaranteed to be busy against Liverpool. He has made some important saves since coming into the side and should reach value on Saturday.
While I like Dubravka most I will also be looking to save some budget at the GK spot in most of my lineups. My pick for a value GK this week is Jack Butland (4500) who will be looking to recover from a bad mistake against Leicester last week. Despite not playing very well recently he is killing it in DFS – getting between 17 and 23 FanDuel points in nine of his last ten games.
For value in the DEF spot I am interested in Konstantinos Stafylidis (5000) who is on loan at Stoke for the remainder of the season. The left back racked up 20 FD points on his first start last week and has a price that is worth the risk again.
There is no true value in the FWD position this week but Troy Deeney (7500) is the best placed forward under 8k and is a nice player to pair with Kane.
FanDuel EPL DFS: Fades
The one game I am going to avoid this week is Swansea v West Ham. I am very hesitant of games at the Liberty Stadium because the pitch is so bad as they share it with a rugby team. Add to that the deluge of snow this week and this game is getting a big fade from me.
You will be tempted to go after Marko Arnautovic (9000) or Chicharito (8000) against a bottom three side but it is not worth the risk this week. Also good to remember the two sides played out a 1-0 West Ham win in November. The goal came to a substitute in the 90th minute. Avoid.
While I like Liverpool’s chances against Newcastle this week I do not like their pricing. Newcastle don’t tend to get beaten easily and are very defensive away from home. Clearly Liverpool have the talent to break them down but you are paying full price so it comes with a hint of caution. Salah (13500), Firmino (12500), Mane (1000), Can (9000) and van Dijk (8000) are all at least 1k overpriced. Not saying fade totally but issuing a ‘buyer beware’.
FanDuel EPL: Lineup
Note: this is a sample lineup and are not optimized. The only guarantee I can give you is that I will playing it too. I will also have some lines that are not here. Best thing is to take some of these picks and build your own lineup – especially in GPP – as lineup sharing only reduces the amount you can win.
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Sample Lineup:
FWD: Kane – Tottenham
FWD: Deeney – Watford
MID: Son – Tottenham
MlD: Diame – Newcastle
MID: Ndiaye – Stoke
DEF: Davies – Tottenham
DEF: Matip – Liverpool
GK: Butland – Stoke
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Best of luck in your FanDuel EPL contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!