5 big questions about the wild NBA Playoffs race
We have questions about the NBA. Luckily, we also have answers. Some of them might be useful. A few might even turn out to be right. This is Five Big Questions and this week we touch on the crazy playoffs race.
Which teams in the Eastern Conference are locks to make the playoffs?
Wes Goldberg (@wcgoldberg): Locks: Toronto, Boston, Cleveland, Washington and Indiana. Turning the key: Milwaukee and Philadelphia. Bubble: Miami and Detroit.
Ben Ladner (@bladner_): In order of my confidence in them: Toronto, Boston, Cleveland, Washington, Milwaukee and Indiana.
Bryan Toporek (@btoporek): Toronto, Boston and Cleveland are all locks. Washington, Milwaukee and Indiana are rapidly approaching lock territory, but an injury to Bradley Beal, Giannis Antetokounmpo or Victor Oladipo would throw that into doubt. And if Philadelphia takes care of business against its outrageously easy remaining schedule, they should be in as well.
Daniel Lewis (@minutemandan): I’ll say that the first seven teams are locks at this point. Barring an injury to Joel Embiid, the 76ers are going to make the playoffs. I’m not sold on the Heat making the playoffs, but they have a great five game stretch in the final weeks against Chicago, Brooklyn, Atlanta twice and then the Knicks. I don’t think the Pistons are going to be able to make it, and I could see Charlotte giving Miami a run.
Paul Centopani (@pcentopani): The locks are Toronto, Boston, Cleveland and Washington. The lower half of the bracket leaves more room for variation, but I’m ready to claim Indiana, Philadelphia and Milwaukee as *HOT TAKE, ALL CAPS* locks too. That leaves three teams (Miami, Detroit and Charlotte) in a tickle fight for the 8-seed.
How do you see the rest of the Eastern Conference shaking out?
Goldberg: Your top three seeds will be Toronto, Boston and Cleveland, in that order. Washington has been inconsistent all season, but they’ve had the most time of possession over the fourth seed, so give it to them. Milwaukee makes a run and grabs the fifth spot. Your final three seeds will be: Philadelphia, Indiana and Miami, in that order. That means a Cavs vs. 76ers first round [insert eyes emoji].
Ladner: I agree with Wes, although we should be open to the possibility of Washington jumping Cleveland. I think Milwaukee will make a run down the stretch and finish fifth, with Indiana firmly in sixth. I’m gaining confidence in the Sixers, who I think will finish seventh. I don’t necessarily believe in Detroit or Miami at the moment, but I’ll go with the Heat for the final spot.
Toporek: Agree with Wes about Toronto, Boston and Cleveland being first, second and third, respectively. The Cavs have the eighth-easiest remaining schedule, per Tankathon, while the Wizards have the second-hardest, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Washington slides down a few spots. Let’s go full YOLO and say the Bucks are fourth, the Sixers are fifth, the Wizards are sixth, the Pacers are seventh and the Heat are eighth.
Lewis: I think we’ll see Toronto play Miami, Boston play Milwaukee, Indiana play Philadelphia and Cleveland host Washington. I think the Pacers should get a boost from Darren Collison returning, and they’ve been playing hungry all season. I would love to see a Celtics-76ers first round, with the possibility of a Raptors-Cavs matchup in the second round of the playoffs.
Centopani: I’ll go with the Pistons out of those three previously mentioned tickle fighters to make a run to the last playoff spot. For the rest of the shakeout … yadda yadda, I’m still picking the Cavs to rep the East in the finals. Bottom line, they have LeBron and the other teams don’t.
Which teams in the Western Conference are locks to make the playoffs?
Goldberg: Locks: Golden State, Houston. I really want to say San Antonio and Oklahoma City, but spots three to 10 are separated by only 5.0 games. I can’t say with confidence that anyone other than the Warriors and Rockets are locks. … (Remembers that the Spurs are the Spurs). Okay, put the Spurs in there, too.
Ladner: Houston, Golden State and San Antonio, for the same reasons Wes laid out.
Toporek: Houston and Golden State are the only two rock-solid locks. If Kawhi Leonard comes back, the Spurs are as well. Otherwise, I wouldn’t be floored if San Antonio or Minnesota misses the playoffs, although I ultimately expect both to make it. FWIW, the Spurs have the NBA’s hardest remaining schedule and are only 3.0 games ahead of the ninth-seeded Clippers heading into Friday.
Lewis: Houston and Golden State are definitely going to make it. They’re in a different tier, and there’s no way they are going to fall out at this point. San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Portland and Minnesota are going to make it as well. They have the coaching and talent to make it, barring any injuries to their key players. The race between the Pelicans, Nuggets, Clippers and Jazz for the final two spots and the right to lose to either the Rockets or Warriors in round one is going to go down to the wire, with just 4.0 games separating the 7-10 seeds.
Centopani: The West is bananas this year. You’ve got Houston and Golden State running away at the top, then the next eight teams within six games of each other. Could Jimmy Butler’s torn meniscus submarine the Wolves? LaMarcus Aldridge just rolled his ankle and Kawhi Leonard might never play for the Spurs again. The Pelicans are liquid magma-hot since consummate leader Emeka Okafor joined the team and Anthony Davis went full Super Saiyan. Paul Millsap’s back for the Nuggets. Donovan Mitchell might be the best player in the league. I dunno. Every game matters and nothing matters. What I do know is, NOBODY IS SAFE.
How do you see the rest of the Western Conference shaking out?
Goldberg: Is it crazy I think the Warriors still nab the top seed? Golden State and Houston will be the top two seeds. Then, in order: San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Portland, Minnesota, New Orleans and Denver. Or Utah. Errr … uhhhh … screw it, I’ll go with the Jazz at No. 8 and Donovan Mitchell for Rookie of the Year.
Ladner: I think this is the hardest question in the NBA to answer right now. If I had to pick two teams not to make it in, I’d probably have to go with Utah and the Clippers. I love the Jazz, but they just have more ground to make up than anyone else, and it’s going to be really hard to do. I could see third through eighth place shaking out in almost any order of the remaining six teams.
Toporek: “Pure pandemonium” is the only correct answer here. But in terms of seeding, I’ll go Golden State, Houston, Minnesota, New Orleans, Portland, San Antonio, Denver, OKC. (If Kawhi comes back soon, bump the Spurs up to No. 3.)
Lewis: Things are really chaotic from three all the way to 10. Since the editors will ask me to change my answer if I don’t actually answer, I’ll say that I think Houston will play Utah, Golden State will play Oklahoma City, Portland will play New Orleans and Minnesota will play San Antonio. I think the Nuggets and the Clippers will miss out on the playoffs, but it won’t be by much. Denver doesn’t have the experience to win close games against veteran teams down the stretch, and Los Angeles doesn’t have the talent to pull out wins on the road consistently.
Centopani: I think the three and four seeds will be ripe for upsets, if they can even be called that this season. But I’d be significantly surprised if the conference final was anyone else besides the Warriors vs. the Rockets (and I agree with Wes, I think the Dubs end up as the top seed). Is it trite to predict Golden State and Cleveland meeting in the NBA Finals again? Yes. Am I going to pick that anyway? Also yes.
Which team in either conference has the most to gain and the most to lose?
Goldberg: In the East, Milwaukee has the most to gain. Getting Giannis Antetokounmpo more playoff experience is important as he begins to enter him prime. For the front office, they’ll get a look at how Eric Bledsoe responds in the postseason and if Jabari Parker is the second banana they need (and if they should re-sign him this summer). Miami has the most to lose. If they miss out on the playoffs, that means the roster they locked themselves into this past summer after going 30-11 in the second half of last season was fool’s gold. The Heat don’t have much wiggle room to improve their roster, and missing the playoffs for the third time in four seasons would be devastating for this front office and the #Culture.
In the West, the Pelicans have the most to gain by making the playoffs. Everything is about showing Anthony Davis he can compete in New Orleans. The team with the most to lose is the Warriors. Anything less than a championship is a failure. That’s the price of expectations. The Thunder get a shoutout, though, because if they miss the playoffs, you’d have to think the odds of Paul George walking away increases.
Ladner: For the same reason, I think the Thunder might have the most to gain. It’s not clear how far they’d need to advance in order to keep George around — maybe it doesn’t matter as much to him — but convincing him to stay would be a huge win and keep them relevant for a little while longer. The Rockets have a lot at stake as well. They look like a real threat to challenge Golden State and might have legitimate championship upside. If Houston reaches its ceiling, that’s a hell of a lot to gain.
I think Cleveland has the most to lose. An early(-ish) exit could have real consequences in LeBron James’ free agency. A non-competitive NBA Finals series might have a similar effect.
Toporek: In the East, the homer in me says Philadelphia has the most to gain. Not only would it be the first taste of the playoffs for Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, Dario Saric, Robert Covington and Co., but the Sixers are also armed with upward of $30 million in cap space this summer. What better recruiting pitch can they give LeBron James than knocking him out in the first round? Cleveland has the most to lose by virtue of James’ upcoming free agency, but I’d agree with Wes that the playoffs could force Miami and Detroit into a come-to-Jesus moment where they realize they’re locked into a mediocre core with few avenues of real improvement.
In the West, OKC has the most to lose, bar none. Paul George is likely gone unless the Thunder make it to the conference finals. If he leaves and Carmelo Anthony opts in (which he absolutely should do), OKC won’t have any cap space, so its ceiling will be far lower in 2018-19. I’m in agreement with Ben that Houston has the most to gain. Not only could the Rockets dethrone the Warriors — they’re the only team with a real chance of doing so — but they have to re-sign Chris Paul this summer and would like to work their way into the LeBron James sweepstakes. Even if they lose to the Warriors, a competitive seven-game series could convince LeBron that he’s the Rockets’ missing piece, à la Kevin Durant and the Warriors in 2016.
Lewis: I think the Pelicans have the most to gain and lose — if they make the playoffs, they should feel confident that re-signing DeMarcus Cousins would be the piece they need to really be a top-four team in the conference. If they miss out, maybe it’s not prudent to bring back Cousins and they may need to consider what they need to do to keep Davis if he decides he wants to play for a team that is a consistent playoff threat. Losing Davis, a top-5 player in the league, and Cousins would be devastating to their franchise and would take years to recover from.
Next: Kawhi Leonard and the testing of the Spurs culture
Centopani: This is a heavy question. In the abstract, any of the young teams banking high-pressure playoff reps could go a long way toward building a successful future. If Milwaukee or Philadelphia breaks through to the second round, their trajectories suddenly speed up and ceilings rise. But the answer for the East is Cleveland. If they flame out in ramshackle fashion, the chances of the best player in the world staying with them becomes slimmer. If he goes, so does their spot as a premier team in the league and as a perennial finals contender.
In the West it’s either New Orleans or Oklahoma City. I’m gonna pick the Pelicans because A) Them showing out in the postseason will keep Anthony Davis optimistic for their prospects; B) It gives Boogie Cousins a better reason to re-sign; and C) I think Paul George is leaving for a Los Angeles manifest destiny regardless of how far the Thunder make it.