Arsenal’s 4-point blueprint for a Europa League miracle

Arsenal’s four-point blueprint for a Europa League miracle, including dropping Mesut Ozil deep.

Four defeats in a row, eight in 2018 so far and more away day blues than most other teams fit into a whole campaign. There’s no sugar-coating it: Arsenal’s season is a mess, a nightmare from which increasingly under-fire manager Arsene Wenger is likely to wake and find himself out of the job he has held since 1996.

Wenger needn’t despair just yet, though. There are still ways for him to salvage a season well truly in the pits after Sunday’s 2-1 defeat to Brighton at the Amex Stadium.

The result left Wenger’s wounded Gunners sixth in the Premier League and 13 points off the top four. It means a second season without Champions League soccer is now a virtual certainty.

So what would “saving” the rest of this season actually mean for Arsenal? Well, Wenger said it best after defeat to Brighton, per Goal’s Chris Wheatley:

Yes, the time has come for Arsenal to put all of their eggs in the Europa League basket. Winning Europe’s second-tier club competition won’t be easy, though, not when there are first-rate teams such as Atletico Madrid, Lazio and Borussia Dortmund still involved.

Yet there is still hope for Wenger and his players, provided they are prepared to tweak their shape, move some things around and hope for a miracle.

Here are the four things the besieged 68-year-old can do to keep the wolves from the door a little while longer, beginning with Thursday’s tricky last-16 first leg away (yes, away) to AC Milan:

Install the 5-4-1

The first thing Arsenal have to do is stop leaking goals. I may be the only one on the planet who thinks so, but the Gunners were better than Brighton on Sunday. They bossed possession and used the ball smartly and stylishly for the first time in weeks.

What undid Arsenal at the Amex were two more defensive howlers. The opposition were gifted a two-goal lead in 26 minutes when slack marking from a corner, coupled with more dismal decision-making from struggling goalkeeper Petr Cech, let Shane Duffy head across for Lewis Dunk to turn in.

Brighton’s second was an even more damning indictment of Arsenal’s so-called defense. Laurent Koscielny, one of the supposed senior leaders in this squad, played a predictable, telegraphed pass straight to the hosts, who worked the ball out to playmaking gem Pascal Gross.

His cross beat Shkodran Mustafi, again lacking in concentration, and allowed Glenn Murray to head in.

While the Seagulls threatened afterwards, Arsenal dealt with those threats relatively comfortably. The visitors had just given themselves too much to do to come back against a side ready to defend deep and in numbers.

Wenger won’t be able to improve his side’s defensive record with current personnel. Koscielny, always an overrated center-back, has seen his core skills deteriorate further, while Mustafi has failed to justify his £35 million fee.

Meanwhile, Wenger has not wanted to reinstall Per Mertesacker to the lineup. The big German is retiring this summer, and Wenger is perhaps wary of chancing the 33-year-old’s lack of pace.

Unfortunately, the Arsenal boss seems to have close to zero confidence in Calum Chambers and Rob Holding, although it’s hard to blame him.

The only thing Wenger can do to mask the lack of talent is use his defenders differently.

Reinstalling the back three is the most obvious option. It worked wonders for the Gunners last season, helping them beat Manchester City and champions Chelsea en route to a record seventh FA Cup win for Wenger.

Personally, I’m not the biggest fan of the back three and have called for Wenger to play four at the back more than once this season. But the simple fact is Arsenal aren’t playing well at either end of the pitch to justify using the formations Wenger prefers.

Instead, they must find better ways to protect their goalkeepers, particularly Cech. The 35-year-old has become the most error-prone keeper in the land, per Squawka Football:

Cech may be rested for Europe ( he should be dropped, anyway) in favour of deputy David Ospina. Whoever is tending goal will need the extra protection a third centre-back can provide.

The question is who should be Arsenal’s third man at the back?

Play Mohamed Elneny as a center-back

Since Wenger doesn’t trust Mertesacker, Holding or Chambers, he should give midfield man Mohamed Elneny more playing time at centre-back. It’s an experiment the Gunners chief tried several times earlier this season.

The experiment has yielded solid success, with Elneny looking at home at the heart of a back three. He was particularly effective during the second leg of the Carabao Cup semi-final.

It was a tie Arsenal won 2-1 after being a goal down. The turning point came when Wenger dropped Elneny into defence to change the shape of his team.

Egypt international Elneny impressed, with James Benge of the London Evening Standard noting the fluidity Elneny’s presence lent Arsenal’s structure:

Wenger had used the earlier rounds of the Carabao Cup to try out Elneny as an auxiliary central defender. The midfielder slotted in at the back for the 2-1 win over Norwich City in the competition’s fourth round back in October.

Elneny reads the game well and his steady passing would help improve how Arsenal build from defense. The Egyptian is the ideal third center-back to play between Mustafi and Koscielny.

Drop Mesut Ozil deeper

There was a moment in the second half against Brighton when cheers were actually heard from the traveling Arsenal fans. Such was the rarity of positive noises from the away end, the sound actually came as a shock.

Those cheers were prompted when Mesut Ozil played a smart one-two with goalscorer Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. The German collected the return, strode forward and fired in a swerving shot goalkeeper Mathew Ryan did well to turn around the post.

It was an emphatic contribution from Ozil, who had come to life during the last five minutes of the first half. The 29-year-old had dropped deeper to get on the ball more often, and the effect on Arsenal was immediate and telling.

No sooner had Ozil dropped behind Jack Wilshere there was slight, but noticeable, improvement in the quality and pace of Arsenal’s passing. With their best technician in possession more often, the Gunners kept the ball better and for longer.

I’ve previously discussed Ozil’s surprising affinity with a deeper role. He has the patience, efficiency and guile to be the Santi Cazorla-style hub of passing Wenger’s team has missed so much since 2016.

Next: Mesut Ozil ready to be the new Santi Cazorla for Arsenal

Ozil looked good playing closer to his own goal back in December. At the time, Wenger had returned to a back four, but the positional switch can be just as effective with five at the back.

Having Granit Xhaka and another midfielder partner Ozil would provide the security the German would need to help him get on the ball as often as possible. Adding the athleticism of precocious 20-year-old talent Ainsley Maitland-Niles to the middle of the park would make sure Ozil has enough worker bees around him to handle the defensive chores.

Alternatively, if Wenger is worried about Ozil having players to link with, he could use Aaron Ramsey to complete his central trio. The Welshman loves to raid forward and Ozil would surely find his runs.

He would also surely pick out the direct running of Hector Bellerin and Sead Kolasinac. The pair have been struggling as natural full-backs, but have both shone as wing-backs with more license to get forward.

But regardless of who is breaking forward to support the lone striker, Arsenal’s attacking play will only click if Ozil is pulling the strings from further back.

Push Mkhitaryan further forward

After a fast start to life at Arsenal, including three assists in his second game, Henrikh Mkhitaryan has looked decidedly ordinary. The man who arrived as part of the swap deal with Manchester United involving Alexis Sanchez has been played too withdrawn to impact things.

Mkhitaryan has usually operated on the left of a midfield three. He needs to be more central and closer to the striker.

In the the Europa League, it will mean playing the Armenia international just off Danny Welbeck or Alexandre Lacazette, once the latter returns from injury. Wenger should have Mkhitaryan stand on the heels of whoever is playing striker if he has to.

It’s vital to get Mkhitaryan, who unlike Ozil, is more of a goal threat than a creative force, into the areas when he can do the most damage. The man who scored for fun for Shakhtar Donetsk and Borussian Dortmund needs to be supporting the front.

Mkhitaryan bagged six goals in last season’s Europa League, helping United lift the trophy. He’s capable of a similar impact for the Gunners.

Arsenal’s season can still be salvaged with European success. It’s the longest of long shots right now, not least because Milan are in superb form since Gennaro Gattuso took over as manager.

But Wenger can still produce a minor miracle of his own and ensure the last days of his reign yield another notable achievement.