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DFS Golf: Valspar Championship Draftkings Weekend Slate

By Josh Thomas

PALM HARBOR, FL - MARCH 09: Tiger Woods looks on from the ninth tee box during the second round of the Valspar Championship at Innisbrook Resort Copperhead Course on March 9, 2018 in Palm Harbor, Florida. (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)
PALM HARBOR, FL - MARCH 09: Tiger Woods looks on from the ninth tee box during the second round of the Valspar Championship at Innisbrook Resort Copperhead Course on March 9, 2018 in Palm Harbor, Florida. (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images) /
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PALM HARBOR, FL – MARCH 08: Corey Conners of Canada looks over a putt on the 17th green during the first round of the Valspar Championship at Innisbrook Resort Copperhead Course on March 8, 2018 in Palm Harbor, Florida. (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images) DFS Golf
PALM HARBOR, FL – MARCH 08: Corey Conners of Canada looks over a putt on the 17th green during the first round of the Valspar Championship at Innisbrook Resort Copperhead Course on March 8, 2018 in Palm Harbor, Florida. (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images) DFS Golf /

DFS Golf: Valspar Championship Weekend Contests

Oofta. That’s the Minnesotan coming out in me but seriously, OOFTA. These last two days have been brutal. The following is two lists, the first is guys who made the cut this week and are in contention, T12 or better. The second is guys who missed the cut and are heading home. In parentheses is their Official World Golf Ranking as of this week.

Cut Makers: 

Corey Connors (#608)

Kelly Kraft (#199)

Ryan Palmer (#106)

Sam Burns (#386)

Bob Estes (#1503)

Tyrone Van Aswegen (#331)

Blayne Barber (#414)

Heading Home: 

Jordan Spieth (#4)

Rory McIlroy (#12)

Henrik Stenson (#14)

Gary Woodland (#26)

Ross Fisher (#28)

Tony Finau (#34)

……Are you kidding me? I could include Tiger and his 388th OWGR in there as well but we know he isn’t playing like that. I’ve ran models on FantasyNational.com for the last few hours and I really can’t find a model that works for this leaderboard. One of those weeks where you just have to chalk it up as golf being a funny game sometimes, especially at difficult courses like Copperhead.

Next week I’ll review my pre-tournament picks more in depth but lets just say its not good. I successfully identified Finau as someone who was at risk to miss the cut (he did) but Sergio and Luke List are both playing well even if neither can make a 3 footer. Adam Hadwin is playing pretty well at -1, but Henrik Stenson is packing his bags and one hole really killed John Huh this week, but you have one blow up at a course like this and often times you are heading home early.

Weekend Golf is an entirely different animal than normal PGA DFS and I’ll explain some game theory and hopefully put you on a few guys that can help you recover from a tough start to the week.

PALM HARBOR, FL – MARCH 09: Tiger Woods reacts after missing a putt on the sixth hole during the second round of the Valspar Championship at Innisbrook Resort Copperhead Course on March 9, 2018 in Palm Harbor, Florida. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
PALM HARBOR, FL – MARCH 09: Tiger Woods reacts after missing a putt on the sixth hole during the second round of the Valspar Championship at Innisbrook Resort Copperhead Course on March 9, 2018 in Palm Harbor, Florida. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images) /

DFS Golf: Weekend Slate Strategy 

DFS Weekend Golf is an entirely different animal than regular DFS Golf. There are no placing points, so you don’t need your players to win the tournament, or even finish top ten, you just need them to make birdies/eagles. This means that a player can start in 1st place or last place on the weekend, and have the same amount of points, because the only way to score is by making birdies and eagles.

We want to target golfers who have made a lot of birdies/eagles throughout the week. We also want to look at golfers who have a differential between Strokes Gained Putting (SG: P) and Strokes Gained Tee to Green (SG: T2G). Specifically we want guys who are gaining strokes Tee to Green and losing strokes putting. Putting has a huge variance (Some DFS golf touts don’t even look at SG: P) and it is something that can change on a dime. Guys who are making birdies despite losing strokes putting are prime candidates for weekend golf. They are making birdies despite not putting well, and if they start to putt well then you better watch out because they are going to drop a bunch of birdies. Salary is not necessarily something that you need to worry about. Draft Kings sets the prices early in the week before the cut is made, I’ve never had to make a salary decision playing weekend golf.

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Sean O’Hair is leading the field with 10 birdies so far., yet he is only -3 under. He’s struggled a bit making a couple big numbers. He is gaining 7.733 strokes T2G and losing -1.585 strokes on the greens. He’s playing extremely well and just hasn’t been able to drop a lot of putts. He could contend here on the weekend, finishing 2nd in his last trip around here in 2015. I like him as someone to make a run here this weekend and he will be a core play for me.

Tiger Woods has lit the golf world on fire this weekend. So many people were watching PGA Tour Live this morning that they actually shut down for about 15 minutes because the site couldn’t handle it. All aspects of his game are clicking right now, he only made one bogey on Friday (on the last hole) and had 4 birdies. Tiger will be massively owned and that is a reason to fade him, but do you really want to cheer against Tiger this weekend? Make two line ups, play him in one. If he plays well you are fine, if he doesn’t your other line up is in great shape.

No one makes birdies and eagles like  Si Woo Kim. The problem is that no one makes bogeys, doubles, and triples like Si Woo Kim as well, as evidenced by his last 4 holes today Bogey, Bogey, Par, Double Bogey to finish the day at +1. Kim splits don’t line up with that formula we’re looking for, but he has 6 birdies and an eagle on the tournament so far, and he’s a guy who can get hot (See last years Players Championship where he won by 3) . I just have a gut feeling about Si Woo. Play him in that lineup with Tiger as a differentiator, as he will probably be low owned.

I had Dominic Bozelli in my GPP core earlier in the week and I still like him this weekend. He’s losing more than 2 strokes on the greens and is gaining more than 4 T2G. On average he gains .8 strokes putting on Bermuda greens, and over his last 20 tournaments he has averaged .8 strokes putting. Hopefully his putting returns to normal and he can continue play well T2G, if he does that he could be in contention again come Sunday. Last year he finished 3rd here.

Louis Oosthuizen is a name to watch this weekend. He is sitting T12, and is barely losing strokes on the green and is gaining a massive 5.17 strokes T2G. Louis has only made 4 birdies so far this week and thats a good sign for us. Louis is a player who when he contends he usually has one really low round and 3 pretty average rounds. At the WGC last week he started out with a 64. We know Louis can make birdies. He’s contended here before, granted it was 2016 which was a slug fest and he finished T7 at -2. Louis can get hot this weekend and make a run up the leaderboard fast, which will help you make a run up your weekend contest.

Here are a couple other guys who I would suggest looking at this weekend as well, as they have good statistical splits.

Charl Schwartzel 

Ryan Armour 

Adam Scott

Bill Haas 

Hopefully this weekend can be rewarding for you and get your bankroll back on track. Remember, the Masters is coming up and you don’t want to blow it all on the weekend slate, but if you can find a few slots to play, weekend golf can be a ton of fun!

Good Luck and be sure to follow along with me @dfsupnorth as I tweet during the tournament the next two days!