Fantasy Baseball 2018: The ultimate all-hype lineup
By Gavin Tramps
There is plenty of room available on the 2018 hype train for these nine hitters.
You won’t get an argument from me; the players featured in this article will all likely make significant contributions in fantasy baseball leagues this season.
Although, due to fantastic performances in 2017, their draft-day stock is inflated and it will be difficult for them to return the same value, considering their ADP.
C: Gary Sanchez (ADP 24)
With 33 home runs and 90 RBI last season, he offers exceptional power from behind the plate in one of the most potent lineups in the game.
Before you reach too far, check that you need to invest a second or third round pick on a catcher. Sanchez was not a top-100 player last season in points or roto, so you can get the same production from a lesser player of a different position.
Also, the difference between Sanchez and the next two catchers (Buster Posey and Willson Contreras) is smaller than you would expect. Posey finished higher on the ESPN Player Rater, and in the second half of the season, Contreras posted 157 wRC+ (only 10 players, regardless of position, were better).
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1B: Cody Bellinger (ADP 26)
The 22-year-old burst onto the scene to depose veteran first baseman Adrian Gonzalez from the Dodgers’ lineup. He hit 39 home runs with 97 RBI to claim the NL Rookie of the Year Award.
Before you reach too far, keep in mind that Bellinger only hit .240 after August (including the postseason). If his unsustainably high HR/FB rate drops, you might find it difficult to justify a second or third round pick on a 30 home run slugger hitting below .250.
2B: Whit Merrifield (ADP 79)
In my article about the Royals’ 2017 second base Spring Training battle, I surmised that Merrifield offered very little fantasy value except for the possibility of some cheap steals. I was wrong about the fantasy value, but the speed was cheap and plentiful as he swiped 34 bags. It came with the bonus of unexpected power, resulting in 19 home runs and 32 doubles.
Before your reach too far, remember that nothing in his Minor League career suggested this power breakout. It might be difficult to repeat, and the Royals will not be a competitive lineup in 2018. Don’t pay Starling Marte prices to get Cameron Maybin production.
3B: Rafael Devers (ADP 94)
In the year of exceptional rookie performances, the Red Sox top prospect posted 1.151 OPS over his first 20 games with eight home runs and .364 batting average. Although he came back to earth, it was still a fantastic debut stint from a 20-year-old.
Before your reach too far, remember that players this young will take knocks as the elite pitchers they face on a day-to-day basis discover their holes. The potential is undeniable, but his inflated BABIP and HR/FB rates suggest it would not be surprising if Devers fails to return his draft day value.
SS: Trea Turner (ADP 4)
With home runs increasing and stolen bases falling, elite speedsters like Turner are game-changers. His Major League 162-game career average of 109 runs, 20 home runs, 70 RBI, 66 stolen bases and .304 AVG. That’s No.1 production.
Before your reach too far, remember that much of his value is linked to his stolen base potential. He won’t be leading off anymore, and we don’t know how often Nationals’ new manager Dave Martinez will want to send him with Bryce Harper at the plate. Taking Turner in the first round means passing up the opportunity to draft one of the elite hitters or pitchers to anchor your roster.
OF: Christian Yelich (ADP 52)
The Brewers’ new leadoff hitter consistently gets on-base, scores runs and posts double-digit home runs and stolen bases, with a high batting average. The expected uptick in production by moving away from Marlins’ Park and hitting in a better lineup, fuels the excitement of elite five-category contributions.
Before your reach too far, Yelich hits ground balls at a level only matched by Eric Hosmer in the top-100. His batting average dipped for the third straight year, and he won’t have Giancarlo Stanton driving him in, so perhaps anointing him the next five-category superstar is a little premature.
OF: Ronald Acuna (ADP 134)
The game’s No.1 prospect posted .896 OPS with 20 home runs, 44 stolen bases and .325 batting average across three levels last season, saving his best stretch of production for Triple-A. And he was still a teenager. It is understandable why he is being taken inside of the first 100 picks in many drafts.
Before your reach too far, the Braves are unlikely to be contenders in 2018, so they will probably delay Acuna’s MLB debut. It may only be for two weeks or until May 1, or possibly until the All-Star break. Even if he breaks camp, the Venezuelan has only experienced 221 Triple-A at-bats, so it is unfair to expect historic-levels production from a 20-year-old.
OF: Tommy Pham (ADP 57)
The Cardinals’ latest superstar catapulted from fourth outfielder profile to fantasy baseball God with 23 home runs, 25 stolen bases and a batting average of .306. Stats that were only matched by the best two players in the game.
Before your reach too far, regression is almost inevitable for Pham. He had one of the highest BABIPs which looks completely unsustainable, so a repeat of a batting average north of .300 is unlikely. As a ground ball hitter with a high HR/FB rate, you shouldn’t bank on another season of 20 home runs.
DH: Rhys Hoskins (ADP 43)
After going 1-for-13 upon reaching the majors, the 24-year-old slugged 1.020 with 11 home runs over his next 14 games to shoot into the consciousness of every fantasy baseball player. His 2017 production equated to 120 runs, 58 home runs and 156 RBI over the course of a full season.
Before your reach too far, 50 games in the majors is a very small sample size. If you want to focus on small samples, then Hoskins hit .182 over his last 20 games. The power is there but the batting average may not come along with it.
Next: Want to win your league? Wait on outfield
Don’t get me wrong. I love all of these guys. Some of them will reach their potential this season, but most of them will fall short of delivering value in fantasy baseball leagues considering where you have to take them in the draft. Draft one or two of these hitters but back it up with solid, reliable, boring players.