NCAA Tournament 2018: 5 reasons Virginia won’t win it all

2. A Cincinnati rock fight awaits

We use the term rock fight way too often when discussing college basketball, so it loses a bit of its oomph when a real rock fight arises, but let’s be clear: Virginia vs. Cincinnati would be college basketball’s ultimate rock fight. The Cavaliers and Bearcats rank out as the two best defenses in the sport this season according to adjusted efficiency, per KenPom, and both rosters have some troubles getting points on the board.

Cincinnati ranked out as the worst No. 2 seed, according to the Selection Committee, but that’s not necessarily an accurate reflection of its performance on the court this season. The Bearcats advanced metrics — statistics based on points per possession produced and allowed and adjusted for the quality of competition — are terrific. They rank as KenPom’s fourth best team in the nation, T-Rank’s fourth and ESPN’s BPI’s fifth. Essentially, the quality of Cincinnati is probably closer to a No. 1 seed.

In a potential matchup, the Bearcats would almost certainly have the best player on the floor. 6-foot-6 wing Jacob Evans is a versatile defender who’s slowly realizing his creation abilities at the college level. Evans averages 17.0 points per 40 minutes and shoots 38.2 percent from behind the arc. Virginia has the elite wing defenders to counter the Cincinnati junior, but it’s never ideal to be facing a talent deficit.

The Bearcats’ Cane Broome could also prove to be a difference maker. A backup who averages 20.6 minutes per game, Broome gives the Cincinnati offense a different look. He’s a quality slasher, capable of breaking down defensive rotations by getting the ball into the middle of the floor. He’s prone to turn it over a bit too often, but he could give the Cavaliers some problems if he protects the ball.

This one might finish 45-44, but Cincinnati would make a formidable Elite Eight opponent in the South.