Does Allen Robinson make the Bears playoff contenders?

The Chicago Bears will make a huge splash in NFL free agency in signing wide receiver Allen Robinson. But does this move make the Bears a playoff contender?

Though 2018 NFL free agency does not officially begin until 4:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday afternoon, players are starting to have tentative deals in place already. Perhaps the biggest offensive playmaker to switch teams so far is wide receiver Allen Robinson.

According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, “Former Jaguars’ WR Allen Robinson intends to sign with the Chicago Bears barring any last-minute snags when free agency opens on Wednesday.”

Schefter’s ESPN colleague Josina Anderson would add a few points to this signing of Robinson to the Bears. Robinson informed Anderson that it will be a three-year, $42 million deal with Chicago. He also told Anderson the biggest reason he sided with Chicago is to play for offensive-minded head coach Matt Nagy. Robinson loved what he saw out of Nagy’s previous employer’s offense with the Kansas City Chiefs.

So adding Robinson certainly improves the Bears offense overnight, but to what degree? Does adding the best wide receiving talent available in free agency make the Bears a viable playoff threat in the NFC? Let’s take a look and investigate.

The 2017 Bears went 5-11 in the final year of the John Fox era in Chicago. While the Bears were competitive in many games, they were mostly a defensive-minded team that struggled on offense, especially in the passing game.

Though Chicago doubled-down on solving its quarterback woes last fall, it didn’t translate to tallies in the win column for the Bears. Overpaying for former Tampa Bay Buccaneers backup Mike Glennon wasn’t great, as his best skill set was being tall. While many thought that No. 2 overall pick Mitchell Trubisky would be fed to the wolves in his rookie year, the former North Carolina Tar Heels signal caller was able to tread water in year one.

Obviously, the Bears’ trajectory towards making the NFC playoffs hinges largely on Trubisky’s development. He showed signs of promise with his mobility in and around the pocket, his decision making, reliable mechanics and a tenacity to compete in adverse situations. However, he was largely held back by an ultra-conservative defensive minded staff. That’s largely why Fox had to go.

Though the Bears were one of the worst teams in the NFC last year, they are a team poised to be better in 2018. It’s not like they don’t have talent. They have interesting pieces on defense, as well as on offense. Chicago seems to have a reliable running game in the tandem of Tarik Cohen and Jordan Howard. However, Howard has to become a better pass catcher out of the backfield to maximize his potential. Chicago does have a promising young tight end in Adam Shaheen, who could end up being Trubisky’s safety valve.

So what does adding Robinson do to all this? He gives Trubisky a true No. 1 wide receiver to sling the ball to. Robinson’s best attribute is that he can make mediocre quarterbacks look good with his ability to possession receive deep down field. He made Christian Hackenberg look like a five-star at Penn State and gave Blake Bortles his best season with the 2015 Jacksonville Jaguars.

Chicago has assembled a competent staff in Nagy’s first year. Former Oregon Ducks head coach Mark Helfrich will be the offensive coordinator. Though he ultimately failed in Eugene, Helfrich is a creative play caller, stemming from the Chip Kelly coaching tree.

Nagy successfully retained defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. By doing this, the Bears have an outside chance at maybe going worst-to-first in the NFC North. It sounds shocking, but this sort of phenomenon happens annually in the NFL. Just look at the 2017 Jaguars.

So the pieces are in place so far for the Bears to make a drastic improvement in 2018, especially with Robinson at wide receiver. Chicago should push for .500 right away. The trick is if they will be good enough to get to 9-7 to be a wild card team or 10-6 to contend in the division.

Chicago plays the entire NFC North twice, the AFC East, the NFC West, the New York Giants and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this fall. The Bears could beat both New York and Tampa Bay. Outside of the New England Patriots, they could go 3-1 in the AFC East. At best, you’re looking at 2-2 in the NFC West, with the best chance of a win likely coming against the rebuilding Arizona Cardinals. If the Bears do that and go .500 in the NFC North, they’ll be 10-6.

The schedule is favorable, the coaching staff has improved and the roster has gotten better by adding Robinson. Chicago should not be the favorite to win the NFC North, as that would be the Minnesota Vikings. However, 9-7 and absolutely 10-6 should be good enough to make the NFC playoffs as a wild card team.

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Chicago is still probably on the outside looking in at a playoff spot in 2018, even with the addition of Robinson. That being said, this is a team that could be as good as 10-6 and no worse than 7-9. Chicago will get better in 2018, but will probably have to wait a year to break through in the NFC playoff picture. The division is a bit too competitive for the Bears to chalk up easy wins this fall.