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College Football 2018: Biggest question facing every Top 25 team in spring practice

By Nicholas Ian Allen

NEW ORLEANS, LA - JANUARY 01: Jalen Hurts (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
NEW ORLEANS, LA - JANUARY 01: Jalen Hurts (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images) /
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PITTSBURGH, PA – NOVEMBER 24: Miami Hurricanes linebacker Michael Pinckney (56) celebrates making a key tackle resulting in a fumble during a college football game between the Pittsburgh Panthers and the Miami Hurricanes on November 24, 2017 at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, PA. The Panthers went on to win 24-14. (Photo by Shelley Lipton/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
PITTSBURGH, PA – NOVEMBER 24: Miami Hurricanes linebacker Michael Pinckney (56) celebrates making a key tackle resulting in a fumble during a college football game between the Pittsburgh Panthers and the Miami Hurricanes on November 24, 2017 at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, PA. The Panthers went on to win 24-14. (Photo by Shelley Lipton/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

What can the close calls of 2017 tell us about Miami in 2018?

The good luck finally ran out for Miami after an incredibly successful start to the 2017 season. The Hurricanes jumped out to a 10-0 start and pushed their way into the College Football Playoff discussion before an upset at Pitt in the regular season finale. Thins got worse from there as Clemson dominated Miami in the ACC Championship Game and Wisconsin outclassed the Hurricanes in the Orange Bowl.

But the Canes were fortunate to make it the league title game and into the New Year’s Six. Remember, Miami won four straight one-possession ACC games in the month of October, including a 24-20 victory over rival Florida State in Tallahassee in which the Hurricanes had just a 23 percent win expectancy according to the statistics of the game.

History has shown us teams that pull out a large number of close wins one year are susceptible the next, and vice versa. Phil Steele has mentioned this in his magazine for years, and as he pointed out last year, Notre Dame, Fresno State, Virginia, UCF, Texas, Iowa State, Michigan State, FAU and Miami were among the programs poised to improve after suffering multiple close losses in 2016. Each of those nine teams improved its record in 2017. On the other hand, of the teams that survived four or more close wins in 2016 – Clemson (6), New Mexico (5) and West Virginia (4) all took a step back in the win column. Steele’s research entering last year showed 84.2 percent of programs with four or five net close losses one year had a worse winning percentage the next.

Miami is the preseason favorite to win the ACC Coastal, and rightly so given the team’s performance last year and the experience returning for this season. Naturally, there’s hope in Coral Gables that the 2017 season was just the beginning of a national championship resurgence. But history shows the close calls Miami survived could spell trouble in 2018.

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