NCAA Tournament 2018: 5 overrated teams
The 2018 NCAA Tournament field has been set with 68 teams ready to vie for the title, but which five of those teams are being a bit overrated?
Perhaps the most exciting thing about the NCAA Tournament is the notion that any of the 68 teams competing can win the national title. Sure, no 16-seed has ever gotten out of the first round. However, that doesn’t dismiss the belief in a cinderella going all the way to the Final Four and becoming the story of March Madness.
At the same time, however, there are always the teams looked upon as favorites entering the NCAA Tournament. Whether it’s because of where the team is seeded or because they’re a blue blood program, these are the teams many people will have going all the way in their brackets. But maybe that shouldn’t be the case.
One of the defining narratives of the 2017-18 college basketball season has been the parity in the sport. There has long been the feeling that any team could achieve anything this season if they got hot. That still remains the case heading into March Madness. However, that notion shouldn’t lead us to thinking that some teams, as a whole are better than they are.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at five teams that enter the 2018 NCAA Tournament simply being a bit overrated for one reason or another. They could still get hot and go on a run, but that doesn’t mean that their body of work doesn’t leave them looking overrated.
Note: None of the Last Four In teams have been included in this piece as that felt like a cheap inclusion.
5. Xavier Musketeers (1-seed, West Region)
Posting a 28-5 overall record this season in the Big East, there’s no question that the Xavier Musketeers have the résumé to earn the 1-seed that they were given by the selection committee. What’s more, they have a clear-cut star on their squad in Trevon Bluiett, who has been a phenomenal scorer for the Musketeers all season. With that said, even having Xavier as the last No. 1 seed has them being a bit overrated as they enter the 2018 NCAA Tournament.
With Bluiett leading the way and with four other players averaging over eight points per game, there’s no question that the Xavier offense is capable of putting up solid numbers on the scoreboard each night out. In fact, they’ve been one of the most efficient offenses in the country this season, ranking seventh in college basketball in KenPom’s Adjusted Offensive Efficiency with 120.7 points per 100 possessions. However, the questions start on the other end of the floor.
Still looking at their efficiency numbers, the Musketeers ranked just 59th in college basketball in KenPom’s Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. As a result of that discrepancy between their offense and defense, the Musketeers rank just 14th in the country in Adjusted Efficiency Margin, five spots lower than the next lowest 1-seed (Kansas) and well below Virginia and Villanova, who are Nos. 1 and 2 in the same metric.
Come March Madness time, having a balance between offense and defense is more critical than ever. Even if you are an elite team in one area, any deficiency on the other end of the floor can be a fatal flaw that sends a team home early. As such, the Musketeers are certainly more susceptible to an early exit than you’d expect a 1-seed to be.