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NCAA Tournament 2018: 5 reasons Villanova won’t win it all

By Chris Stone

CINCINNATI, OH - FEBRUARY 17: Head coach Jay Wright of the Villanova Wildcats talks with Jalen Brunson #1 during a game against the Xavier Musketeers at Cintas Center on February 17, 2018 in Cincinnati, Ohio. Villanova won 95-79. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)
CINCINNATI, OH - FEBRUARY 17: Head coach Jay Wright of the Villanova Wildcats talks with Jalen Brunson #1 during a game against the Xavier Musketeers at Cintas Center on February 17, 2018 in Cincinnati, Ohio. Villanova won 95-79. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images) /
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MILWAUKEE, WI – JANUARY 28: Marquette Golden Eagles guard Markus Howard (0) shoots a layup during the game between the Marquette Golden Eagles and the Villanova Wildcats on January 28, 2018 at the BMO Harris Bradley Center in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Quinn Harris/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
MILWAUKEE, WI – JANUARY 28: Marquette Golden Eagles guard Markus Howard (0) shoots a layup during the game between the Marquette Golden Eagles and the Villanova Wildcats on January 28, 2018 at the BMO Harris Bradley Center in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Quinn Harris/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

4. The Wildcats concede a ton of transition buckets

Here’s another bit about the Villanova defense that deserves it’s own special nod. The Wildcats absolutely stink at getting back in transition this season. Their opponents are attempting 28.9 percent of their initial field goal attempts in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock this, per Hoop-Math. That’s the 14th-highest number in the country.

Why does that matter? Well, because those shots are quite a bit more efficient than anything the team’s opponents would get in the halfcourt. Teams are posting a 51.1 effective field goal percentage on transition buckets against the Wildcats versus just 48.6 percent in non-transition situations. That’s the difference between a top 60 effective field goal defense and a top 190 effective field goal defense, per KenPom.

Dig a bit deeper and things are slightly more concerning. 7.7 percent of opponents’ initial shot attempts come within the first 10 seconds of the shot clock after a made shot, per Hoop-Math. That’s the fifth highest percentage in the country and suggests the Wildcats occasional fullcourt pressure might not be doing its job. Opponents are posting a 53.6 effective field goal percentage on those chances.

Villanova’s struggles getting back to set up its halfcourt defense could prove critical against several potential future matchups who enjoy getting up and down the floor. Both Alabama and Virginia Tech are fast paced offensive squads who have point guards capable of leading the break. A potential Elite Eight matchup with Purdue and lead guard Carsen Edwards could create similar issues.

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