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NCAA Tournament 2018: 5 reasons Villanova won’t win it all

By Chris Stone

CINCINNATI, OH - FEBRUARY 17: Head coach Jay Wright of the Villanova Wildcats talks with Jalen Brunson #1 during a game against the Xavier Musketeers at Cintas Center on February 17, 2018 in Cincinnati, Ohio. Villanova won 95-79. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)
CINCINNATI, OH - FEBRUARY 17: Head coach Jay Wright of the Villanova Wildcats talks with Jalen Brunson #1 during a game against the Xavier Musketeers at Cintas Center on February 17, 2018 in Cincinnati, Ohio. Villanova won 95-79. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images) /
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PHILADELPHIA, PA – FEBRUARY 04: Mikal Bridges #25 of the Villanova Wildcats shoots the ball while warming up before the game against the Seton Hall Pirates at the Wells Fargo Center on February 4, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Corey Perrine/Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PA – FEBRUARY 04: Mikal Bridges #25 of the Villanova Wildcats shoots the ball while warming up before the game against the Seton Hall Pirates at the Wells Fargo Center on February 4, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Corey Perrine/Getty Images) /

3. Relying on 3s in March is a dangerous game

Villanova loves to get up shots from behind the arc. 46.6 percent of the Wildcats’ total field goal attempts are 3-pointers, per KenPom. That’s the 17th highest percentage nationally. And as such, the team is heavily reliant on knocking down triples to score with 39.3 percent of its total points coming from deep.

Now, shooting a ton of 3s isn’t inherently bad. Plenty of 3-point heavy offenses have made deep runs in March, but it does increase offensive variance given they’re a lower percentage shot even if they are, on a per possession basis, more efficient. Basically, there’s a whole lot of luck involved in individual game 3-point shooting numbers and when it’s one loss and you’re done, that can be a concern.

Need proof? Each of Villanova’s four losses this season came in games where it shot below the Division I average from behind the arc. Of course, the Wildcats won plenty of games where they shot it poorly, but remember, our threshold here is just a higher level of variance for one of the tournament’s top teams.

The good news for Villanova is that all of their high volume 3-point shooters have been accurate over the course of the season. All five players who have attempted more than 100 3-pointers a piece are shooting better than 38.0 percent from deep.

Still, it only takes one bad night to end it all in March and the Wildcats’ reliance on the 3-pointer could prove deadly the jumpers aren’t falling against a quality opponent.

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