DFS Golf: Wednesday Wisdom
Welcome to my Wednesday Wisdom article, an update to my Getting Up and Down article from Monday, with some of the info that has broken over the week and a look at ownership trends that I see playing out as the week has gone one. My name is Josh Thomas and you can find me @dfsupnorth where I tweet way too much about DFS golf and just a little bit Minnesota sports.
DK $9000-$12,000 Range
Tiger Woods ownership still appears to be hovering around 35% or higher. I’m concerned that many of the DFS Touts (myself included) are talking about fading Tiger this week on their podcasts and articles and I’m concerned that he could possibly end up dropping to a playable ownership percentage. If he ends up around 20% ownership in GPP’s I’d be kicking myself for not playing him, but he will probably stay around that 35% range as many guys are just going to play him regardless. If you’ve read my articles in the past you know I just throw a dart on Tiger every week and I will this week as well in one lineup, but I won’t be going overweight on him.
If you are fading Tiger this week based on ownership and are trying to be contrarian (which I advise this week), you are going to want to target Rory McIlroy and Hideki Matsuyama. Both of these guys are going to be owned under 10% and will provide you with some huge leverage in GPP’s if they play well. You need to score on Par 5’s here, there’s 4 of them, and both of these two can absolutely mash Par 5’s. I’m all in on both of these guys and you can pair them with a few guys down in the 7K Range to make some pretty interesting lineups.
Henrik Stenson is going to be the least owned of most of the guys in the 9K range. Burned a lot of guys last week, missed the cut here last year, but long-term statistics say he should be a good play. I personally am making a stand in this range with Matsuyama and Alexander Noren as the two guys I’ll be loading up on in GPP’s.
DK $8000-$9000 Range
There is a ton of value in this range and the winning lineup will have at least one guy in this range. The DFS community is on Brian Harman this week and I like him in cash. I’ll be on Adam Scott at around 15%-20% ownership and his recent form has been great. It looks like the greens are going to be rolling at a 13 on the stimpmeter which I think hurts Scott a bit, but he’s due here, and if the way the season has been going is any indication he’s a good bet to win here. Jason Kokrak will be highly owned, and has great history here and has some form coming in. He’s not in my player pool but he has some good GPP upside as long as his ownership stays low, but it’s looking like he could push 20%.
DK $6500-$8000 Range
I love this game and the majority of my player pool comes from this range. The chalk in this range will be Emiliano Grillo, Kiradech Aphibarnrat, Zach Johnson, Francesco Molinari, and Kevin Chappell. Chappell’s ownership is going to mirror Tiger’s as they can be paired quite easily. Chappell was 2nd here in 2016 and has the game to fit this course, but I just don’t see it this week. I could be way off here but I don’t have a good feel for Chappy here. He hasn’t missed a cut in a while, and is 4/6 in cuts at Bay Hill. At 7300, you really don’t need him to do a ton for you and he has a huge upside in DK Scoring, but he doesn’t really rate out in my model and at 25-30% ownership, I’ll go elsewhere.
If you read my article from earlier in the week, you know I love Hudson Swafford this week. At $6900, you have GPP winning upside due to his course history, form, and skill set as a golfer. He ranks 9th in my model and for a guy at that price point, you just have to jump on him.
I was all in on Emiliano Grillo a day ago, and I’ve back off on that sentiment due to some interesting ownership projections as it looks like he could even be as a high as 20% owned. Most of my shares in that slot have switched to James Hahn who is just playing lights out right now.
In the next section, I’ll go over my updated core for GPP’s and Cash Games.
DFS GOLF: Updated Core GPP and Cash Plays for the API
In this section I’ll share my updated core plays for GPP and Cash Lineups this week on both FanDuel and DraftKings. These are guys that I’ll be playing in a majority of my lineups and would suggest you try to find ways to fit them into yours! Be sure to check in on my twitter @dfsupnorth tonight for any changes or WD’s, or last-minute tinkering that I’ll be doing.
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DFS Golf – GPP Core Plays:
Hideki Matsuyama: DK $9700/FD 11,400
Adam Scott: DK $8700/FD 11,100
Rory McIlroy: DK $10,700/FD $11,500
Zach Johnson: DK $7700/FD $10,200
Keegan Bradley: DK $7300/FD $9200
Hudson Swafford: DK $6900/FD $8400
Bubba Watson: DK $8600/FD $10,400 (ownership play, too good to be around 10%, extremely volatile though, could win or miss the cut and you have to know that when you roster him)
I’m toying with the idea of playing some Jason Day at a lower ownership and it looks like he will find his way into a few lineups. I watched a few Alexander Noren highlights earlier in the week and will play a little of him too. His long iron play has been so good and Bay Hill requires a great long iron game.
Important to note that Hideki has said his wrist is feeling much better and @pgatour put this up earlier today.
Hideki Matsuyama returns this week.
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) March 14, 2018
His sweet swing, too. pic.twitter.com/hUpF5RI9x7
DFS Golf – Cash Core Plays
Rory McIlroy: DK $10,700/FD $11,500
Adam Scott: DK $8700/FD $11,100
Brian Harman: DK $8500/FD 10,600
Zach Johnson: DK $7700/FD $10,200
James Hahn: DK $7600/FD $9100
Francesco Molinari: DK $7300/FD $9,900
My core cash plays are going to the stay the same. I added Molinari, he’s just too good to be priced this low. Loading up in the Low 9K and 8K range looks to be the way to cash this week.
Next: DFS Golf: Getting Up and Down - Arnold Palmer Invitational
If you want to read my full article from earlier in the week, including a full course breakdown, the players I feel are trending up and the ones that are trending down, and the contests I’ll be targeting, click the link above. Be sure to follow along with me this week on twitter @dfsupnorth as I react to whats happening at the Arnold Palmer Invitational!