DraftKings NBA Picks March 14: Ride Durant on the short slate

WASHINGTON, DC – JANUARY 30: Russell Westbrook #0 of the Oklahoma City Thunder reacts against the Washington Wizards during the first half at Capital One Arena on January 30, 2018 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Picks March 14: Ride Durant on the short slate

Happy Pi Day! I’ll take French Silk! The NBA is down to four games tonight, but there are still plenty of good options out there, and plenty of value to pay for Durant. What will the lineups look like? Let’s see what we can do!

Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Lonzo Ball ($7,600): Ball continues to be a pretty solid contributor. He has an off game here and there, but the 38.4 DraftKings points per game average over the three previous games against the Warriors gives reason for optimism here. Ball is a better play at this price. The added bonus is that Ball will likely stay on the court even if this becomes a blowout. He also has the added bonus of not having to deal with Curry tonight.

Eric Bledsoe ($7,400): Believe it or not, Orlando is trending back towards respectability against point guards with Elfrid Payton gone. I wont say the Magic will stop Bledsoe, but his upside is definitely capped due to all of the talent on this team. I would rather find the extra $200 to play Ball, but Bledsoe is a decent pivot option.

Honorable Mention:

Terry Rozier ($7,100): Rozier has been a beast this year with Kyrie Irving sidelined. That is Irving’s status for tonight, so Rozier could be one of the better bargains around at this price. This allows Boston to not rush Irving back and give him rest when needed down the stretch so they can be at full strength for the playoffs. That is a luxury that many teams don’t have. And hey, it also helps us DFS types.

Tomas Satoransky ($5,700): This is a risky price against Boston for a guy like Satoransky that doesn’t score a lot of points. This one may be better left alone. However, Rozier isn’t the defender that Irving is. This could be a good chance to get some value out of Satoransky at lower ownership. It worked well with Kanter last night.

Dark Horses:

Tyler Johnson ($5,000): Johnson should get plenty of minutes with Wade still sidelined. He is mostly a shooter, so there is some risk involved when using a guy like Johnson. That said, when he only costs $5,000 to begin with, it’s much easier to take a gamble like that. There is solid upside here and the price is right on Johnson.

Brandon Jennings ($4,400): Jennings lit up the Grizzlies for 46 DraftKings points on Monday just after signing a ten day contract. Call me crazy, but I think Jennings has a job for the rest of the year be it as Brogdon’s backup or in another capacity. Did I mention that Jennings did all that damage in just 24 minutes? Yeah, he is going to be around 80 percent owned tonight, but I don’t see how we can pass on this kind of value.

My pick: Rozier(PG), Jennings(G)

WASHINGTON, DC – JANUARY 30: Bradley Beal #3 of the Washington Wizards in action against the Oklahoma City Thunder during the second half at Capital One Arena on January 30, 2018 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images) /

Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

Bradley Beal ($8,500): Beal is a tough sell against Boston, but he has managed 84.75 DraftKings points against them in two games. That isn’t quite 5x value, but it’s very close. When you add to the equation that John Wall is still out, you find a guy in Beal that still has solid upside despite the tougher opponent.

Khris Middleton ($7,500): It’s hard to trust Giannis or Bledsoe to make value, but somehow Middleton is there more often than both of them combined. You wont see Middleton put up any huge numbers, but he is an efficient shooter and does enough in other areas to give him a nice floor. I prefer Middleton in cash games, but on a four game slate against a weak Orlando team, there is upside here.

Honorable Mention:

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($6,000): Only Orlando has been able to keep a lid on KCP lately, and that was largely because he wasn’t hitting shots in that game. The Warriors could be without Klay Thompson on the wing, which boosts KCP’s value even more. He has been an automatic 5x value in 11 of the last 12 games. KCP is suitable for use in all formats tonight.

Jonathon Simmons ($5,900): Simmons continues to play very well with Terrence Ross out. He has managed to soak up some of the offense vacated when Payton was sent to Phoenix. If Gordon is out again tonight as well, look for Simmons to take up some of those shots as well. Simmons is Orlando’s best offensive threat with Gordon off the court with the possible exception of Vucevic.

Dark Horses:

Bogdan Bogdanovic ($5,600): Bogdanovic broke out of his slump in a big way on Monday, which not surprisingly corresponded with another ugly stat line from Buddy Hield. Bogdanovic is going to get first crack at everything, but considering his recent slump with the exception of Monday and Hield’s alternating good and bad games, this is Hield’s game to play well. As if to reiterate this fact, Hield dropped 32.75 DraftKIngs points in the first game against Miami. Do with this information what you will.

Vince Carter ($3,300): Carter is the ultimate dice roll on a short slate. He has topped 20 DraftKings points in two of the last three games. In the third he was shut out in nine minutes against Denver. If seems that if any combination of Hield/Bogdanovic/Jackson goes cold that Vince is the one to pick up the slack. Carter is an interesting way to save money, but also present a sizeable risk for not a lot of reward.

My pick: KCP(SG)

LOS ANGELES, CA – JANUARY 11: Kyle Kuzma #0 of the Los Angeles Lakers saves a ball from going out of bounds during a 93-81 win over the San Antonio Spurs at Staples Center on January 11, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) /

Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Kevin Durant ($11,400): Durant doesn’t always hit value, but man, he has abused the Lakers this year. Durant has averaged 61.8 DraftKings points per game in three meetings with the Lakers. That was with a healthy Brandon Ingram, who has already been ruled out for this game. There is enough value out there to use Durant tonight, and the history this year fully supports it. That could also cause the ownership on KD to be pretty high, especially with Curry and Draymond already ruled out.

Kyle Kuzma ($6,600): The rookie has played well with Ingram out. That should continue for tonight, even against the Warriors. Kuzma has racked up 93.75 DraftKings points in 82 minutes against the Warriors this season. If you find out that you can’t afford Durant, Kuzma should provide nearly as much bang for the buck.

Honorable Mention:

Justise Winslow ($5,900): The Heat find themselves a little beat up once again, and the ones that are healthy are still mostly mired in slumps. We saw Winslow turn in a huge night on Monday against Portland. With the struggles of Richardson and James Johnson, we could see Winslow work into a larger role if he keeps playing like this.

Marcus Morris ($5,600): Morris continues to put up solid numbers off the bench. I have a feeling he could be a little more than solid tonight against his twin brother. Do you have a brother? One that is close in age to you? You know how much each of you wants to win. Now imagine it’s a twin. Morris should provide decent value for his price here.

Dark Horses:

Mario Hezonja ($5,200): Hezonja continues to be a solid fill in when Aaron Gordon sits. Keep an eye on this situation tomorrow. It is a bit concerning that Gordon has not passed the concussion protocol yet. I would say that Gordon is closer to doubtful than probable, but this is the early game, so we will have ample time to make the switch if Gordon plays. If Gordon is in there, he is also worth a look against the Bucks.

Jabari Parker ($4,600): I get the feeling that Milwaukee really isn’t going to turn Parker loose anytime soon, so he does lack upside. However, Parker is about the only scorer that the Bucks currently have on the second unit. He should continue to provide solid production for the price. Just know that he wont play more than 25 minutes in any given game.

My pick: Durant(SF), Kuzma(F)

LOS ANGELES, CA – FEBRUARY 18: Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 of Team Stephen dunks on LeBron James #23 of Team LeBron during the NBA All-Star Game 2018 at Staples Center on February 18, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images) /

Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,600): Giannis has the kind of upside that puts him in play every single game. Just be aware that he only has 87.5 DraftKings points in two games against Orlando this season, and it isn’t because they were blowouts. Giannis played 71 minutes over those two games. It’s just that other areas of the Orlando defense are easier to attack. I’m fading Giannis tonight, but on a short slate, he could be a solid contrarian play. Or he could come in under 40 again.

Julius Randle ($8,100): Randle has averaged 35.4 DraftKings points in just 28 minutes per game against the Warriors this year. Randle’s stock gets another boost with Draymond Green already ruled out of this game. Who’s going to guard Randle? Zaza? Yeah, I’m in! This is a great situation for Randle tonight!

Honorable Mention:

Otto Porter ($6,500): From a matchup standpoint, this is not good for Porter. However, Porter has racked up 82.75 DraftKings points in two games against Boston this season. With Horford possibly on the shelf for Boston in this one, the Celtics are going to be pretty much operating with a skeleton crew. There could be quite a bit of value in Washington players tonight.

Kelly Olynyk ($5,800): Olynyk continues to put up good numbers backing up Bam with Whiteside out. Whiteside is still out, which means more run for Olynyk. He has less upside since he isn’t the one starting, but we have been through this with Olynyk before. Olynyk seems far more productive off the bench. He is going to be a favorite value play again tonight.

Dark Horses:

Markieff Morris ($5,400): You could argue that Kieff has a better matchup than his brother, and I would tend to agree. Markieff also has the added advantage of being slightly cheaper. However, Washington is pretty much at full strength and Boston has players dropping left and right. Morris struggled against a good Heat D over the weekend. Look for him to get back on track here.

Jonathan Isaac ($3,700): Isaac’s numbers have been pretty close to Hezonja’s with Gordon out this time. Isaac is part of the future of this frontcourt, so I would consider him to have more upside right now. The price is right on Isaac, but I’m not to the point that I would use him if Gordon is on the court yet though. If Gordon is out though, I love Isaac as a value play.

My pick: Morris(PF)

ATLANTA, GA – JANUARY 18: Nikola Vucevic #9 of the Orlando Magic against the Atlanta Hawks at Philips Arena on January 18, 2016 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) /

Center:

Best Bets:

Nikola Vucevic ($8,000): The Bucks are one of the worst teams in the league defending centers, and the Magic don’t seem to be limiting Vucevic much lately. He only played 24 minutes in the blowout last night, but still put in a double-double. That should leave Vucevic fresh for tonight against a poor interior defense.

Brook Lopez ($6,100): Lopez has been on a tear lately, but the Warriors have given him fits all season. However, he wont have to deal with Draymond tonight, so that could make life a little easier for BroLo. There is probably better value for this price, but if you are looking to save money at center, Lopez is a solid choice against the beat up Warriors tonight.

Honorable Mention:

Willie Cauley-Stein ($5,900): Cauley-Stein put up a solid 26 DraftKings points in the first meeting, and that was with Whiteside on the court. WCS has more upside with Whiteside out. Don’t get me wrong, the Heat are still strong in the middle without Hassan. They just aren’t as strong. Cauley-Stein should put up solid numbers tonight, but I don’t expect a big game.

John Henson ($5,100): Henson never puts up big numbers, so most nights he is largely forgotten in DFS. However, Henson routinely hits 5.5-6x value for the price as a backup to Thon Maker or Tyler Zeller. Henson put up 33.75 DraftKings points in his only game against the Magic so far this season. That would put him comfortably at 6x value. Henson is a strong value play tonight.

Dark Horses:

Marcin Gortat ($4,500): Gortat is still a hard sell for me in any game, but he has put up 66.5 DraftKings points in two games against Boston this season. Now that Boston is beat up across the board tonight, there is a chance for another strong game from Gortat for his price. However, there is also a chance that his teammates are so busy having career nights that Gortat disappears on offense. At any rate, the numbers say Gortat is a strong value in the middle tonight.

Jordan Bell ($3,800): Well, someone has to play for the Warriors. I’m not a huge fan of either Quinn Cook or Livingston for value plays. I kind of feel the same about McCaw and Iguodala. However, Bell put up some big games earlier in the season before he got hurt. It’s going to be KD and the seven dwarves for the Warriors rotation tonight, but Bell could fare better than the other six. The opportunity is certainly there.

My pick: Henson(C), Bell(UTIL)

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