Fantasy Baseball 2018: Value picks for each pitching category
By Bill Pivetz
The pitching pool is shallow in the fantasy baseball rankings. If you are looking for value late, here are 10 pitchers to target for each category.
There are two types of pitchers you draft for your fantasy baseball team, starting and relief pitchers. Drafting the right combination of starters and relievers will lead to your success, at least on one side of the ball. You have the top names for both but there’s only so many to go around.
After you get past the top 30 starters and top 20 relievers, it’s a roll of the dice to find production. Pitching is a fickle position. A string of bad starts or one blown save could ruin a week for your pitching stats. If your starter gives up four runs over five innings, they finish with a 7.20 ERA. A relief pitcher who gives up just one run in an inning has a 9.00 ERA. If you have that happen in a week, the odds of you winning are low.
Speaking of pitching stats, there are five default categories. They are ERA, WHIP, wins, strikeouts and saves. Starting pitchers can contribute to four of the five while relievers can help in all of them. Some leagues use quality starts over wins because the starter is the only one responsible for that category. The pitcher needs run support to get the win.
With a lot of teams shortening the usage of the starters, there is more value coming out of bullpens. The closers have a clear advantage because of saves. However, the set-up man has value if your league uses holds. Even middle relievers have a spot with their low ratios and high strikeout totals.
Because of how shallow the pitching pool is, I moved up my minimum ADP. All pitchers listed have an ADP of at least 221.0, according to FantasyPros. That equates to a Round 18 pick in 12-team leagues. That’s still very late in the draft when 220 players have already been taken.
If you missed it, here are my value picks for offense. Here are 10 pitchers you can draft late that can help you in your pitching categories.
It’s interesting that I have two AL East pitchers in the runs category. Yet, both have proven to limit the number of runs that score against them. ERA is tough to gauge because of so many factors. Obviously, the pitcher throwing the ball is the main one. If he’s leaving the ball out over the middle of the plate, things can get dangerous.
It also helps if the pitcher is facing a team with a poor offense. The good pitchers take advantage of the favorable matchups and provide good numbers.
Jordan Montgomery (NYY) – The Yankees pitching staff went through some hard times last season. Montgomery made 29 starts in the process. He finished with a 3.88 ERA, 1.230 WHIP, 8.3 K9, 3.0 BB and an 8-7 record. With some of the improvements made in the AL East, I expect his ERA to go up a bit. As the Yankees No. 5 starter, Montgomery will likely post an ERA just over 4.00 this season.
Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS) – Rodriguez underwent knee surgery back in October and was scheduled to miss close to six months. He threw off of a mound for the first time two weeks ago. He won’t be 100 percent by Opening Day but should be back sometime in April. Rodriguez posted a 4.19 ERA in 137.1 innings last year. With him expected to miss a few starts, his ADP fell to 389.0. He will likely post a similar ERA this season. If you draft him, make sure you have a nice buffer with your ERA.
WHIP is calculated by adding the walks and hits a pitcher allows and divide that number by the number of innings pitched. If a pitcher has a bad inning and then gets pulled, they could leave their start with a 1.50 or 2.00 WHIP. You will need a no-hitter from two of your starters to get back to the league average.
Nate Eovaldi (TB) – Eovaldi is an interesting choice because of the division he pitches in. Three of the four AL East teams he’ll pitch against finished in the top half in batting average. Eovaldi did not pitch in the 2017 season as he recovered from Tommy John surgery. He’s been good this spring, giving up six hits and zero walks in 6.1 innings. The Rays don’t seem too sure of what they want to do with their rotation. I think he’ll make another 25-plus starts and finish with a 1.33 WHIP, nothing to scoff at.
Jake Junis (KC) – Junis will have a better chance to keep his WHIP low with the offenses in the AL Central, well at least two of the teams. He pitched in 98.1 innings last year and finished with a 1.281 WHIP. While he doesn’t strike out a lot of batters, Junis does a good job in not allowing free passes. He posted a 5.9 walk rate and a 40.1 ground ball rate. If he can lower his fly ball rate some, his WHIP would be even lower. As the 445th pick, a 1.30 WHIP is not bad.
If you’ve read any of my pieces before, you know how I feel about wins. When drafting for this category, you want to find a pitcher on a team with an offense that will provide run support. Looking at the two starting pitchers I picked, have solid offenses behind them to help them earn that win.
In order for the starting pitcher to qualify for a win, he must pitch at least five innings and the team cannot surrender the lead in the process. If that does happen, the most effective pitcher on the winning team earns the win.
Patrick Corbin (ARI) – Corbin posted his second 14-win season of his career. It came with increased ratio stats but improvements to his walk and strikeouts rate. The Diamondbacks have a solid offense but so does the rest of the division. Wins are the hardest category to project. A pitcher could win five or 15 games. There’s not sabermetric that you can analyze to see how many wins a pitcher can get. I think, with the Diamondbacks offense and the addition of the humidor, Corbin can finish with another 10 wins as a 20th round pick.
Tyler Chatwood (CHC) – Chatwood leaving the Rockies and Coors Field can only do wonders for his fantasy profile. He went 12-9 in 2016 and 8-15 last season. In four starts this spring, he is 3-0 with 12 strikeouts, five walks, 0.82 ERA and 0.818 WHIP. While the parks are more pitcher friendly, the offenses are pretty good. I think he’ll supply 10 wins as a 21st round pick.
Strikeouts are fun. Watching a batter swing poorly or just stand there looking at the pitch come in is great. It’s even better when you can get an extra 150 of them after pick 200 is what drafting value is all about. With the league’s power going up, there will be more swings and misses.
Dinelson Lamet (SD) – Lamet is the highest-ranked pitcher on my list. He had a great rookie season last year. In just 114.1 innings, Lamet struck out 139 batters. He’s slated to make a full season of starts. With 150 innings on the horizon, Lamet should get close to 180 strikeouts. It also helps he’ll face a starting pitcher twice a game in the National League. Those are some extra strikeouts in the bank.
Mike Foltynewicz (ATL) – Folty’s K9 has gone up in each of his first four seasons. He finished with an 8.36 K9 and 143 strikeouts over 154.0 innings. Foltynewicz struggled in the other stats, so he’s a one-category pitcher. He may be one of those pitchers you want to start on a per-matchup basis. If he can induce for swings in and out of the strike zone, Folty can get to 150-plus strikeouts this season.
Yes, I know the quote is “Help me Obi-Wan.” Saves is another stat that has certain qualifications in order to earn one. In order to earn a save, a pitcher must be the final pitcher for his team and complete one of the following scenarios:
- Enter the game with a lead of no more than three runs and pitch at least one inning.
- Enter the game with the tying run in the on-deck circle — or closer to scoring.
- Pitch at least three innings.
Saves, and holds, are becoming more prominent in baseball. The number of closers with at least 30 saves has gone down over the last three seasons, 21 in 2015, 16 in 2016 and 11 last year. However, there are more relief pitchers earning saves, giving relievers a boost in value.
Alex Claudio/Keone Kela (TEX) – Claudio is listed as the Rangers closer currently. He locked up the job in the second half last season, posting a 2.19 ERA, 0.946 WHIP and 10 saves in 37.0 innings. However, with his low strikeout and high groundball rate, the Rangers may move him to a set-up role. Enter Kela. He has back-to-back seasons with an 11.9 K/9. He has four strikeouts in 2.1 innings this spring. In AL-only leagues, both are worth a roster spot. In mixed, you may want to stash Kela for his eventual takeover of the closer role.
Cam Bedrosian (LAA) – Bedrosian is another relief pitcher not yet in a closer role. He was a part of the closer carousel in Los Angeles. Bedrosian recorded six saves and 10 holds in just 44.2 innings. Blake Parker is slated to start the season as the Angels closer but Bedrosian has the skills to take over the job is Parker has a string of bad appearances. With the Angels making improvements this offseason, they are in win-now mode. Bedrosian is a great pick at No. 315 as a stash for saves.
The depth for great pitching is not as deep as many think. The fact I had to move up my ADP from 300 for hitters to 220 says a lot. I’ve done a few mock drafts where I drafted three starters and a closer within my first eight picks and liked my team every time. It’s important to lock down all of the pitching stats early but there are names you can draft late to support your core stars.
Starting pitchers also pitch just once every five days, so if you’re behind in wins or strikeouts, you need more than just your starting five. You’re not going to find a sub-3.50 ERA pitcher at pick 300, but a pitcher that won’t give up six runs in four innings is just as good.