The Toronto Maple Leafs are winding down their season and they have a first round date with Boston to look forward to. It’s the best thing that could happen to them.
With the regular season winding down and the playoffs on the horizon, the Toronto Maple Leafs are almost guaranteed to face the Boston Bruins in the first round — a repeat of one of the most heart-wrenching moments in Leafs history.
But actually, this is the best chance the Leafs have had to win a playoff series since 2004.
Let’s break down the matchup and understand how it truly has the potential to produce a winning result for the Buds for the first time since Mats Sundin still donned the C.
The first thing to understand is that both of these teams are not the same as they were in 2013. The Leafs have become a high-flying offensive machine capable of overwhelming any opponent through speed and high shot volume.
The Bruins have adapted a very similar strategy. These aren’t the Big Bad Bruins of the last decade; they are able to run and gun with the best of them.
With a two-game difference between the two teams currently (69 games for the Leafs and 67 for the Bruins), the statistical comparison is extremely similar:
Bruins – 67 games / 3.37 goals per game (226) / 32.8 shots per game (2,199)
Leafs – 69 games / 3.30 goals per game (228) / 31.8 shots per game (2,197)
*Bracketed stats are season totals as of March 13, 2018
After comparing the numbers, it would be safe to assume that series will be fairly even in the offense department, but diving a bit deeper, there are definite concerns for the Bruins.
The Bruins are currently riding out the last leg of the regular season with a multitude of injuries. These injuries are substantial in nature as they affect two of the Bruins’ best point producers. Patrice Bergeron (foot) and Charlie McAvoy (MCL) are both out for at least the month of March. Bergeron is third on the team in points with 54, and McAvoy is second among rookie defensemen with 32 points – only two points behind the Devils’ Will Butcher for first.
McAvoy also averages 22:07 minutes per game, only a minute less than Zdeno Chara for first on the team. These are substantial losses, and even if they make it back into the lineup before the April 11 playoffs start date, the Bruins only have five regular season games in April. This is not a lot of time to jump back into game shape.
As for the Leafs, their biggest injury concern in Auston Matthews has been practicing with the team in a non-contact jersey. He has been sidelined since February 22 with a second stage separated shoulder. The concerns for Bergeron and McAvoy for the Bruins are definitely held for Matthews by the Leafs.
In Matthews’ absence, though, many former slumping players have stepped up and found their game again. The two biggest being Mitch Marner with 10 points and Nazem Kadri with five goals in the seven games without Matthews in the lineup.
With these players returning to form sooner rather than later and Auston Matthews looking to make a return before the playoffs, the Leafs have obscene potential. They have a better chance than the Bruins to run away early and never look back.
Defensively speaking, there isn’t much of a difference in skill between these two teams. Instead, the difference is heavily vested in playoff experience. The Bruins still have key pieces in their defense from their last Stanley Cup victory in 2011 and their last finals trip in 2013 in Torey Krug and Zdeno Chara. The Leafs, on the other hand, have newly acquired experience in Ron Hainsey, who is fresh off a Stanley Cup victory with the Pittsburgh Penguins last season.
With a healthy mix of youth and experience on the blue line between both sides, the goaltending matchup is what will decide this series for the Leafs.
Freddy Andersen is facing the heaviest workload he has ever seen but is also putting together a career season. He leads the league in total saves, is top 10 in SV% and is 6-0-2 in games where he faced 40 or more shots. Tuukka Rask is having a very memorable season as well. The goaltender went from almost losing his starting position to back-up Anton Khudobin to rifling off a 21-consecutive game point streak posting a 19-0-2 record in the process.
The bottom line is both goalies are playing outstanding, but let’s look at the bigger picture:
Andersen (McElhinney) – 57 (13) Games Played / 0.919 (0.931) SV% / 2.76 (2.20) GAA
Rask (Khudobin) – 44 (26) Games Played / 0.918 (0.918) SV% / 2.31 (2.41) GAA
The numbers are once again similar, but the glaring difference is the number of total starts between Andersen and Rask — a 13-game difference. Andersen has been playing more consistently for most of the year and even with the larger workload (1935 shots against compared to Rask’s 1209) has produced a better SV%.
Pairing that with McElhinney having overall better numbers than Anton Khudobin. The Leafs are likely to receive better overall goaltending from both goalies as a pair if needed.
Lastly, since the creation of the new lineup post-Auston Matthews draft the Leafs are 7-1-0 against the Bruins.
Next: Each NHL Team's Biggest 'What if" Moment
Overall, the Leafs will be facing an even opponent in the Bruins, but if history is any indication, the Leafs wouldn’t want to face anybody else.