Each MLB team’s biggest X-factor

Cincinnati Reds: Homer Bailey

Starting pitcher Homer Bailey has the type of contract that can set a small-market team back a decade. When the Cincinnati Reds extended the right-hander for six years and $105 million, they were extending a 27-year-old who had already thrown two no-hitters and was coming off an 11-12 season with a 3.49 ERA.

Bailey made it through 23 starts in the first year of his contract, but was shut down at the end of the year with arm fatigue. He finished 9-5 with a 3.71 ERA but did not look dominant. The forearm fatigue continued into the next spring, and it was discovered in May that Bailey would need Tommy John surgery. He made only two starts and went 0-1 with a 5.56 ERA.

Fast forward another two years, and the former ace of the Reds has made a grand total of 49 starts through the first four years of his extension and has gone 17-18 with a 4.95 ERA. Cincinnati is not expected to contend in 2018, but there are pieces starting to fall into place.

In an ideal world, Bailey would return to pitch well for the 2018 season and set himself up to be traded for more prospects to help the Reds continue their rebuilding efforts. This will go down as one of the worst deals in MLB history, but there is still some room to salvage a little value.