NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Wednesday March 14

Welcome to the Wednesday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!

For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big!

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.

Tuesday’s NBA DFS slate was predictably high scoring as tournament scores on FanDuel pushed well over 400 on such a massive slate. Even with so many possible plays to choose from, it was the three studs on the slate that led the way as LeBron James (71), Russell Westbrook (70) and Anthony Davis (67) were the top three fantasy performers on the night. Overall, ten players scored 50 or more fantasy points on the slate with some low owned darts like Rajon Rondo (54) and Wilson Chandler (51) putting up monster games as secondary pieces in two of the prime games of the evening.

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and  help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.

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As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts  prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.

Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!

NBA DFS – Where to start on this slate:

Where to start on this slate is simple – get yourself a cup of coffee, open up the slate and let’s start running down the injuries because on this four game slate the list of who is NOT playing may actually be longer than the list of players in our NBA DFS player pool!

Let’s start in Boston where the Celtics and their walking wounded will take on the Wizards in Boston with a laundry list of injuries and here is what we know. Kyrie Irving, Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown and Daniel Theis are OUT while Al Horford is questionable with an illness that kept him out of Sunday’s game and Monday’s practice.

With Boston more or less locked into the #2 seed in the East, 4 games behind Toronto and for the top spot and 6.5 games ahead of the Pacers, there is breathing room here if they do feel like they need to rest Horford another day.

For the time being let’s assume he is out and work under those constraints but in all honesty there is essentially no material sample size we can look at this season with all these Celtics off the court so whether Horford is on/off will not change the metrics all that much.

With all the Boston players mentioned off the court, we are looking at a sample size of less than 50 minutes so keep that in mind when looking at the metrics but here is what we show:

• Marcus Morris 39% usage rate and .87 FP/M
• Jayson Tatum 37.7% usage rate and 1.12 FP/M
• Terry Rozier 32.4% usage rate and 1.23 FP/M

Terry Rozier ($12.8K, $7.3K) has seen his price shoot up as a result of Irving and Smart both being ruled out but honestly it is tough to argue with paying this freight as he simply as the clearest possible path to 35+ minutes as the Celtics are down to Rozier, Shane Larkin and Semi Ojeleye in the backcourt now. When Irving left the last game after only 16 minutes of court time, it was Rozier who stepped into the starting line-up and we should expect that again tonight.

Rozier has started three games this season, and in all three cases both Irving and Smart were out so the game environment is similar to what he will see here tonight (even though Jaylen Brown played in those games) and all Rozier did was drop 25, 47 and 55 fantasy points in those games. In fact in those games, Rozier played 33-36 minutes and put up 14, 18 and 18 shot attempts so the ceiling here is massive and honestly the price point may not be high enough considering the role.

We could see the Celtics slide Shane Larkin into the starting PG spot and move Rozier over to the 2 but it is worth noting that as of Sunday, Larkin was still on a minutes restriction in the mid-teens so it will be interesting to see if the Celtics bump up his minutes tonight with them being so shorthanded. Larking at only $7K on FantasyDraft and $3.8K on FanDuel could be an interesting value play tonight if we assume he will get 20+ minutes.

Jayson Tatum ($11K, $6.5K) is probably one of my favorite plays on a site like FanDuel where we have to roster two SF’s as we saw last game the expanded role he needed to take on with Brown/Irving out (and this was a game Marcus Smart played) as Tatum dropped 36 fantasy points in 34 minutes on the back of 19 points, 5 rebounds and 3 combined blocks/steals.

From a pure usage perspective, the Celtics become a difficult team to fade on this slate tonight as Rozier and Tatum specifically stand out as near core plays for me with or without Al Horford on the floor. If Horford does suit up, he becomes an intriguing play at a weak Center position against a Wizards team he has put up 30 and 38 fantasy points against in his two previous outings this year.

NBA DFS – Core Build:

When the news broke on Tuesday night about the Warriors injuries for Wednesday’s match-up with the Lakers it became very clear where this four game slate begins from a roster construction perspective.

Kevin Durant ($ I Don’t Care How Much He Costs on Any Site You Play Him) – I don’t even feel the need to type his price out because it is irrelevant with the news that Stephen Curry and Draymond Green are OUT and with Klay Thompson being downgraded to questionable, this is going to be KD versus the Lakers. You just play him. No don’t try to be cute and think your going to get an edge – you play him. Seriously play him. I cannot stress this enough.

Ok fine, you want the metrics to support it – here you go Stubborn Steve.

With Curry, Draymond, David West and Thompson off the floor, this Durant guy has a decent looking 43.4% usage rate in nearly 150 minutes of court time while putting up 1.74 FP/M. Durant steps into tonight with 61, 66 and 69 fantasy points in the last three games without Curry and now will take on a Lakers team playing at a top 3 pace in all of the NBA. Play the man

The added benefit of the Warriors injuries are that it also opens up tremendous value as the secondary plays on Golden State are all priced dirt cheap across the industry so it is easy to lock in Durant with 1-2 of the fringe players who will see a huge boost in playing time tonight and still have tons of salary cap space left over.

The last time Draymond Green sat out it was Omri Casspi ($6.5K, $3.5K) who drew the start, dropping a double-double with 19 points, 10 rebounds and 36 fantasy points against the Suns. If Casspi draws the start again tonight, even with Jordan Bell expected back, the price is simply too cheap relative to the upside he has shown all year when he has gotten minutes.

If Klay does sit, how do you not play Nick Young ($6.3K, $3.8K) in a #Revenge spot against his former Lakers team? Young is already playing 20+ minutes a night for Golden State so could be tasked with a major role tonight if Thompson does sit out and with SG eligibility on FanDuel, I am not sure how you pass up that value on a slate like this.

You could even make the case for a player like Quinn Cook ($6.2K) who has started the last two games and has played 29 and 30 minutes for Golden State albeit with only an average of 10 FP per game so although this may be a case where minutes do not equal opportunity, I think the value on Golden State is worth building around because of what it could mean to the rest of your roster.

NBA DFS – Pivot Plays:

As much as Durant is a lock and load and the Warriors value will be playable tonight, you would be foolish in my opinion to overlook the Lakers side of this game and honestly I could make the case they are more core plays than pivots.

Since the injury to Brandon Ingram, I have been telling you each and every day that this Lakers team is one we need to stack up as they are playing a consistent tight 6 man rotation night in and night out so we know the production is steady.

This Lakers/Warriors game has by far the fastest projected pace on the slate and it’s not all that close but frankly that is what happens when you pit two teams ranked in the top 6 over the last 15 games against each other.

The only issue with the Lakers tonight is that they are playing their fifth game in eight days with their shortened rotation as the ESPN Schedule Alert points out.

"March 14: Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State | MahScore 8As if the Warriors needed any more of an edge in this game — on national television (ESPN), no less. Poor Lakers. You’ll be playing your fifth game in eight days, your third game in four days and the second of a back-to-back set here. So after hosting the Nuggets on March 13, you’ll head up to the Bay immediately after and face the defending champions the next night. The Warriors will enter this game with a two-day rest advantage, not that they’ll need it."

If the Warriors were at full strength then the blowout would be a worry but with this game being on national TV and the Warriors running a patchwork line-up, I think a full on game stack is the way to go today as your core build.

Any and all Lakers are in play but I would put Brook Lopez and Isaiah Thomas as the 5th and 6th best options and look to focus my roster construction on the other four core plays in LA. Julius Randle has put up 40 and 68 fantasy points in his last two games and will now take on a Warriors team without Draymond Green inside (yes please) while teammate Kyle Kuzma should be a popular option after dropping 26 points, 13 rebounds and 47 fantasy points last night versus Denver. The one thing to keep an eye on with Kuzma is his ankle as he rolled it hard last night and although he was able to stay in the game, he was clearly hobbled and is questionable to play tonight. An already short-handed Lakers team losing one of their core guys could mean the other 5 guys have no choice but to play big minutes!

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope never feels like a guy I am starting my roster with but especially on FanDuel where SG is simply awful, there is something to be said about locking in the 35 minutes and 30-35 fantasy points and simply moving on tonight.

Lonzo Ball is the wildcard here tonight for me as the path is clear to a monster night and he has put up 39 or more fantasy points in three of his last four games so the price on FanDuel at 7.3k seems more than fair. On FantasyDraft where he is priced at $14K and would need 42 fantasy points just to hit value, I think the case can be made for a fade and I will look to get my exposure to him on FanDuel instead.

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($19.8K, $12K) is the ultimate pivot with everyone focused on Durant tonight but with so much value, I say – play them both. Seriously, why not? All you need to do is work in a few of the Celtics/Warriors punt plays and bingo bango you have the two best plays on the slate (and frankly it is not close). Why choose one or the other when you can lock in the highest possible raw point floor on this slate by using both?

Giannis let me down with 33 fantasy points against Memphis but with a match-up against a Orlando team he just dropped 51 fantasy points against on tap for tonight, I think you go right back to him this evening.

My only concern with the Bucks/Giannis is that they are taking on a Magic team that got throttled by the Spurs last night so the blow-out/back to back concern is a risk here but it one I am willing to take ans locking in KD/Giannis tonight is my preferred roster build at first glance.

NBA DFS – Slate Overview and Sample Line-Up

Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here. 

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FanDuel NBA DFS Sample Line-Up:

PG: Shane Larkin ($3,800)

PG: Tyler Johnson ($5,000)

SG: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($6,300)

SG: Nick Young ($3,800)

SF: Kevin Durant ($10,500)

SF: Giannis Anteokounmpo ($12,000)

PF: Julius Randle ($7,400)

PF: Kyle Kuzma ($6,800)

C: Marcin Gortat ($4,000)

Slate Overview: The more I look at this slate, the more I love the idea of stacking Durant and Giannis together and working in the value around them in the perfect Stars and Scrubs set-up. The big things to watch today as we lead up to lock are the status of Al Horford and how the Celtics intend to line up tonight and what the Warriors will do with or without Klay Thompson. This is actually a pretty fun slate in my opinion so I would be willing to play this short slate a bit more aggressively than the last few short slates but keep in mind that we may not have all the news we need before lock as two of the four games top off 3 hours after lock.

Next: DraftKings NBA Picks

Best of luck in your NBA DFS contests across FantasyDraft and FanDuel and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!