NCAA Tournament 2018: 5 reasons Kansas won’t win it all
By Chris Stone
2. Kansas might be the third best team in its region
The Jayhawks are the Midwest’s No. 1 seed thanks to an impressive resume of wins obtained over the course of a difficult non-conference slate and an even more difficult conference schedule. But that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re the best team in the region.
In fact, Kansas rates out as the third best team in the Midwest according to KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin, which measures point per possession output and is adjusted for quality of competition and location. Both No. 2 Duke and No. 3 Michigan State have performed better in efficiency metrics this season.
Given the bracket setup, the Jayhawks can only potentially face one or the other, but both teams present similar problems for a roster lacking in frontcourt strength.
The Blue Devils may have the country’s most talented frontcourt. Both Marvin Bagley III and Wendell Carter Jr. are expected to be lottery pick in June’s NBA Draft. In theory, Kansas’ small ball lineup could cause Duke’s defense some problems, but the Blue Devils have played a 2-3 zone exclusively in recent weeks. On the other end of the floor, Bagley’s activity on the offensive glass would likely be a large problem.
Similarly, the Spartans play two bigs up front. Sophomore Nick Ward is a 6-foot-8 bruiser while 6-foot-11 Jaren Jackson Jr. should be a top five pick come June. Michigan State plays a more traditional man-to-man scheme, but Jackson’s mobility on the perimeter could negate some of Kansas’ small ball advantages.
In the end, both teams present problematic matchups that could end the Jayhawks’ run before San Antonio.