NCAA Tournament 2018: 5 reasons Kansas won’t win it all

Silvio De Sousa (22) receives a big hug from Kansas head coach Bill Self after an 81-70 win against West Virginia in the Big 12 Tournament championship game at the Sprint Center in Kansas City, Mo., on Saturday, March 10, 2018. (Rich Sugg/Kansas City Star/TNS via Getty Images)
Silvio De Sousa (22) receives a big hug from Kansas head coach Bill Self after an 81-70 win against West Virginia in the Big 12 Tournament championship game at the Sprint Center in Kansas City, Mo., on Saturday, March 10, 2018. (Rich Sugg/Kansas City Star/TNS via Getty Images) /
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DURHAM, NC – MARCH 03: Marvin Bagley III #35 of the Duke Blue Devils dunks on Luke Maye #32 of the North Carolina Tar Heels during their game at Cameron Indoor Stadium on March 3, 2018 in Durham, North Carolina. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)
DURHAM, NC – MARCH 03: Marvin Bagley III #35 of the Duke Blue Devils dunks on Luke Maye #32 of the North Carolina Tar Heels during their game at Cameron Indoor Stadium on March 3, 2018 in Durham, North Carolina. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) /

2. Kansas might be the third best team in its region

The Jayhawks are the Midwest’s No. 1 seed thanks to an impressive resume of wins obtained over the course of a difficult non-conference slate and an even more difficult conference schedule. But that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re the best team in the region.

In fact, Kansas rates out as the third best team in the Midwest according to KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin, which measures point per possession output and is adjusted for quality of competition and location. Both No. 2 Duke and No. 3 Michigan State have performed better in efficiency metrics this season.

Given the bracket setup, the Jayhawks can only potentially face one or the other, but both teams present similar problems for a roster lacking in frontcourt strength.

The Blue Devils may have the country’s most talented frontcourt. Both Marvin Bagley III and Wendell Carter Jr. are expected to be lottery pick in June’s NBA Draft. In theory, Kansas’ small ball lineup could cause Duke’s defense some problems, but the Blue Devils have played a 2-3 zone exclusively in recent weeks. On the other end of the floor, Bagley’s activity on the offensive glass would likely be a large problem.

Similarly, the Spartans play two bigs up front. Sophomore Nick Ward is a 6-foot-8 bruiser while 6-foot-11 Jaren Jackson Jr. should be a top five pick come June. Michigan State plays a more traditional man-to-man scheme, but Jackson’s mobility on the perimeter could negate some of Kansas’ small ball advantages.

In the end, both teams present problematic matchups that could end the Jayhawks’ run before San Antonio.