DraftKings NBA Picks March 15: Which star is worth paying for?
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks March 15: Which star is worth paying for?
The NBA is back up to nine games tonight. There are a few stars in play tonight for DraftKings NBA. Which ones are worth paying for? Where can we find value to pay for the big guys? Let’s attack this thing!
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The money line was way up to 291.5 on a night with just four games! There was value all over the place, but Brandon Jennings and KCP weren’t it.
The winning lineup was a big total at 373.75. He stacked the double OT Boston-Washington game and built around Giannis.
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Point Guards:
Best Bets:
Kemba Walker ($8,400): It’s easy to want to go with Lillard against Cleveland, but the Cavs point defense has been much better with George Hill around. I would rather go with Walker against an Atlanta team that got torched by Westbrook on Tuesday. This is also a team that Walker has averaged 48.8 DraftKings points per game against in three games this season. Lillard may have a big night, but I will bet that Walker is pretty close to his production at $1,200 less.
Ricky Rubio ($7,200): Rubio had a disappointing game against the Pistons, but nothing will cure that like a game with the Suns. Rubio has 85.75 DraftKings points in two games against the Suns this year. Those were both without Payton, so there is a chance that Rubio is even better tonight. Rubio is worth taking a chance on again with a matchup like this.
Honorable Mention:
Jamal Murray ($6,400): Elfrid Payton had a huge game against Utah earlier this year, but the Suns have really cut his minutes lately. To the point where I’m not interested in playing roulette with Phoenix’s guard rotation. I would much rather go with Murray, who lit up Detroit for 40.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting. Even with Millsap back, Murray is a huge part of this offense. His production hasn’t really gone down at all.
Austin Rivers ($5,900): The Clippers continue to give Rivers plenty of run, and he has rewarded DFS players with at least 25 DraftKings points in all but two games over the last month. That leaves Rivers with a nice floor and decent upside, especially against a Houston team that has surrendered 69.25 DraftKings points to him in two games so far this season.
Dejounte Murray ($5,900): Murray has scorched the Pelicans for 71 DraftKings points in two games so far this season. The Spurs are loaded at the guard positions, so veterans like Tony Parker and Patty Mills still cut into Murray’s time, but he is still a solid bet for 5x value when the matchup is right. It definitely is tonight.
Dark Horses:
Ish Smith ($4,900): Well, no one else has taken the job away, so Smith is still the guy to have when Detroit has a nice matchup against point guards. Smith picked up 20 DraftKings points in 23 minutes in the first game against the Nuggets. He should see more court time tonight, so 5-6x value is likely.
Tony Parker ($3,900): Parker has no upside left, but he continues to play solid minutes backing up Murray. If you need to go really cheap tonight, you could do worse at what looks like a pretty shallow position, especially if you are on the hunt for value plays.
My pick: Jamal Murray(PG)
Shooting Guards:
Best Bets:
James Harden ($11,200): Harden is less of an asset for fantasy purposes with Chris Paul around, but there are some teams that he just performs well against regardless. The Clippers seem to be one of those. Harden has 117.75 DraftKings points in two games against the Clippers this season. Harden has not hit value since March 3rd. That likely changes tonight.
Nicolas Batum ($7,800): Batum has 84.25 DraftKings points in two games against Atlanta this season. Batum has also racked up 110.75 DraftKings points in his last two games. He has gotten hot at the right time, but the possibility of a blowout has me a little less enthusiastic about this one than I should be. Still, Batum is a pretty strong play tonight, even if this one does get out of hand.
Honorable Mention:
Donovan Mitchell ($7,400): Mitchell has consistently stayed in the 30’s for DraftKings points lately, but it appears as though his upside isn’t as great with Rubio and Gobert back in the mix. Mitchell is still going to get plenty of shots, but he is likely better suited for cash games right now. The upside isn’t great, but he is still hitting 5-5.5x value with regularity.
C.J. McCollum ($7,300): I have a feeling that CJ could have one of his better games lately here. Lillard has been on fire for all of March and the last part of February, so McCollum’s numbers have dipped. Tonight that could change with George Hill guarding Lillard. The Cavs don’t have anyone to guard C.J., so I am expecting McCollum to have a shot at 6x value here tonight.
Dark Horses:
Ben McLemore ($5,200): Keep an eye on the status of Mario Chalmers and Tyreke Evans. As of now, both are questionable. If they are both out again, McLemore should get another start. McLemore has at least 5x value in five of the last six games. The only one he missed was a tough matchup with Utah. McLemore is a strong value play right now.
David Nwaba ($4,600): The luster has worn off of Nwaba, but the Bulls are still starting him, and he is still putting up decent numbers. That should continue against what’s left of the Grizzlies.
Once again, injuries have decimated this team, especially in the backcourt. We could see a very nice game from Nwaba tonight.
My pick: McLemore(SG)
Small Forwards:
Best Bets:
LeBron James ($11,400): LeBron “only” had 52 DraftKings points in the first meeting against Portland. I still wouldn’t fade him. He lit up the Suns on Tuesday. LeBron has not been under that 52 he scored the first game against Portland since before the All Star Break. This is the kind of floor you want from this price tag. I would go as far as to say that the King is safer than Harden, even though Harden likely has more upside.
Ben Simmons ($8,700): On paper this is a good matchup, but Simmons has struggled against the Knicks this season. Still, the rookie is playing pretty well right now. Simmons logged a triple double in just 30 minutes against the Pacers on Tuesday. The upside is high on Simmons if you are willing to overlook his track record against the Knicks so far this year.
Honorable Mention:
Taurean Prince ($6,800): Prince has been the Hawks offense over the last two games with Kent Bazemore out. He has 106.5 DraftKings points in just the last two games! Prince has a solid matchup against the Hornets here tonight. It’s worth seeing if he can keep that hot streak going.
Joe Ingles ($6,400): It’s crazy to think that trading Rodney Hood may have made Utah better, but I think it did. Ingles has five straight games with at least 31 DraftKings points. That’s a very solid floor. When you add in the fact that the Jazz play Phoenix tonight, that ups Ingles into must-play territory for me tonight.
Robert Covington ($6,100): It may be time to jump back aboard the Covington bandwagon. Covington has at least 5x value in six of the last seven games. His February swoon finally seems over. The Knicks gave him issues earlier this season, but that team isn’t quite what it used to be because of injuries. I still like Covington here. His price isn’t to the point where I would quit using him just yet.
Dark Horses:
Wilson Chandler ($5,700): Chandler has been outstanding since returning to the starting lineup. He has 82 DraftKings points over the last two games. Chances are that he will remain at SF, so he shouldn’t have to deal with Griffin either. This looks like another good night to roll Chandler out there.
Dillon Brooks ($4,800): Brooks racked up 39.75 DraftKings points in just 28 minutes in the first running with the Bulls. Overall, Brooks has at least 20 DraftKings points in five straight games. There isn’t a lot of upside here, but as far as value picks go, Brooks is a solid one once again.
My pick: James(SF), Prince(G), Brooks(F)
Power Forwards:
Best Bets:
Anthony Davis ($11,500): I probably trust Davis the least of the five figure guys, but he has more upside than the rest of them too. The only thing that makes me nervous is the matchup with the Spurs. Aldridge is back, and Davis has come up a little short of value in both games against San Antonio this season. There are safer options than Davis, but his upside might be too much to ignore.
Blake Griffin ($7,800): So Griffin struggled against Utah. Big deal. He usually does, as do many others. Now he gets a great matchup against the Nuggets, a team that he put up42.5 DraftKings points on in the first meeting. There is plenty to like about Griffin tonight. Far more than Aldridge, who has averaged just 16.6 DraftKings points in two games against the Pelicans this year.
Honorable Mention:
Tobias Harris ($7,700): Harris continues to play well with the Clippers. His numbers are close to what Griffin put up with the Clippers, but the floor still falls out from underneath him from time to time. That may happen against the Rockets, who are still one of the best teams in the league as far as fantasy points allowed to power forwards. That said, Harris put up 35 DraftKings points on Houston earlier this season.
Bobby Portis ($7,000): The rookie wall is more like a rookie prison for Lauri Markkanen. His struggles have continued. Even though Vonleh got the nod for an ailing Markkanen on Tuesday, it was still Portis that put up the big numbers. The Bulls has let him wreak havoc off the bench, which limits his upside for DFS purposes. Still, Portis has 82.75 DraftKings points over the last two games. If Markkanen is out again, we pretty much have to use Portis.
JaMychal Green ($6,500): Green has done well as the starting power forward for the Grizzlies. You still can’t trust him in risky matchups, but Green has put up some big lines over the last couple of weeks. The Bulls held him to 22 DraftKings points, but this team is still beat up. Green will still see plenty of minutes in this one.
Dark Horses:
Derrick Favors ($5,100): Favors has put up 91.25 DraftKings points in three games against the Suns this year. That puts him close to 6x value at this price. Favors this cheap looks like a great bargain against a Suns frontcourt that draws straws before each game to see who will play. At any rate, none of them have been able to guard Favors thus far, so he looks like a strong value play tonight.
Noah Vonleh ($3,800): It would be reasonable to expect Vonleh to log another start tonight. He held his own against the Clippers on Tuesday, putting up 21.25 DraftKings points. You aren’t going to see a huge night from Vonleh, especially since Portis will play as many or more minutes, but at this price, Vonleh remains a very strong value play.
My pick: Favors(PF), Vonleh(UTIL)
Center:
Best Bets:
Joel Embiid ($9,700): Kanter has proven to be a solid defensive player, but Embiid is a special talent. If Philly gives him 30 minutes, Embiid is a lock for 5x value. However, they are still looking to limit his minutes whenever possible. For that reason, using Embiid still kind of makes me nervous. However, his upside is as good as anyone’s.
Rudy Gobert ($8,800): Gobert has topped the 40 DraftKings point mark in six of the last seven games. Only Memphis was able to hold him under that. Phoenix wont be able to. I don’t like the matchup for Jokic against Drummond, so I am going to avoid that situation entirely and roll with Gobert against the weak Suns.
Honorable Mention:
Dwight Howard ($8,500): Howard has played well against his former team in each of the three meetings this year. D12 has 135.5 DraftKings points in three games against the Hawks this season. There is no reason for this game to be any different. Gobert and Embiid have higher upside, but Howard may be the most sure thing.
DeAndre Jordan ($8,100): Jordan continues to play very well being the alpha of the Clippers frontcourt. Houston is going to put up more of a fight than Chicago did, but there is still value to be had for Jordan tonight. Especially if the Rockets live up to their billing as great defenders of the four against Harris. With so many great options at center tonight, we may see ownership lower on Jordan, making him an intriguing GPP play.
Marc Gasol ($7,900): Okay, so Gasol isn’t the beast that Jordan is, but after seeing how Jordan abused the Bulls interior on Tuesday, my interest in Gasol is piqued. Gasol’s price is low enough that you can fit him into any lineup. He isn’t going to drop 60 like Jordan did, but we should see him in the high 40’s at the very least.
Dark Horses:
Jusuf Nurkic ($6,400): Many a center has had his way with the Cavs interior this season. In fact, Nurkic was already one of them. In the first meeting, Nurkic abused the Cavs for 41.75 DraftKings points in just 28 minutes. Even if Portland sticks to limiting his minutes, Nurkic looks primed for another big game against Cleveland.
Emeka Okafor ($3,700): The veteran continues to put in solid minutes as the Pelicans try to stay afloat with Boogie out. He struggled in the first meeting with the Spurs, but at this price, Okafor is still a decent dart throw.
My pick: Nurkic(C)
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